Free NFL Best Bets & Picks Today – Week 1 (2024)
The 2024 NFL season is finally here, and we’ve got you covered with our free NFL best bets and picks today. In this article, we’ll break down our top free NFL picks against the spread and highlight the best bets for Week 1 action. Plus, we’ll share the top betting targets for your favorite sportsbook. Let’s win some money together.
As the calendar changes from August to September, the 2024 NFL season is upon us. Admittedly, I spent the summer trying to understand the league’s new kickoff rules, and yes, I am just as confused as you are. But that is beside the point. Football is finally back. It kickstarted with the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs knocking off the Baltimore Ravens 27-20 on Thursday night. Now, we have 271 more games waiting in the wings on the way to Super Bowl 59 at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
Free NFL Best Bets 2024: AP NFL MVP
In what will likely come back to bite me in the butt, I think if I had to make a prediction in this free NFL best bets and picks today article for who will capture the league’s Most Valuable Player Award, it would be Josh Allen.
Fresh off an offseason full of change in Western New York, the Buffalo Bills parted ways with his favorite target in wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Additionally, Gabriel Davis departed for the Jacksonville Jaguars in free agency. As a result, the team hopes that offseason acquisitions by Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, and rookie Keon Coleman will replace the duo’s production. Moreover, the Bills hope for a leap from tight end Dalton Kincaid to wide receiver Khalil Shakir.
While the group is deep on paper, they remain unproven and lack a true alpha like in years past, leaving Allen to put Buffalo’s offense on his back en route to a monster season. Enjoy the games this weekend. More importantly, let’s make some money together this year.
Free NFL Best Bets & Picks Today: Week 1
Keep reading to find out my free NFL best bets and picks today for NFL Week 1.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) vs Atlanta Falcons(-3.5)
Two teams that will feature a new look on the offensive side of the ball. For the Steelers, on the heels of a 31-17 loss to the Bills in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, the franchise parted ways with former first-round pick Kenny Pickett. They inked Russell Wilson to a one-year deal while also bringing in Arthur Smith to be the team’s new offensive coordinator.
After a third straight 7-10 campaign a year ago, the Falcons had one of the splashiest offseasons around the league. Choosing to sign Kirk Cousins to a massive four-year $180 million contract, the group will hope that the 36-year-old is the missing piece to an offense littered with young playmakers. Fresh off a torn Achilles in 2023, Cousins did not play a single snap in the preseason. Atlanta will look way different as the season progresses, but for now, we’re going to back Mike Tomlin and the points in a low-scoring opener.
Pick: Steelers (+3.5)
Carolina Panthers (+4.0) vs New Orleans Saints (-4.0)
The Panthers had a less-than-stellar 2023 season. The team won just two games while ranking dead last in the league in yards per game (161.2) and points per game (13.9). Enter Dave Canales. Hired by the Panthers in the offseason, the franchise will hope that the longtime Seattle Seahawks assistant can jump-start Bryce Young in year 2 after helping to lead career rejuvenation for both Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield.
Still searching for their first playoff appearance since the departure of Drew Brees, the Saints fizzled out down the stretch a year ago, leading to another 9-8 finish. Guided by the inconsistent play of quarterback Derek Carr, the Saints ranked just 15th in the league in third-down conversion percentage and 18th in red zone scoring percentage. Despite their struggles in 2023, Carolina went 2-3-1 against the spread in divisional games. While they once again should be one of the worst teams in the league in 2024, four points is too big a number against Carr and Dennis Allen.
Pick: Panthers (+4.0)
Los Angeles Rams (+4.5) vs Detroit Lions (-4.5)
In a rematch of the NFC Wild Card game, Matthew Stafford and the Rams travel to Ford Field to battle the Lions. The surprise of the NFL last season, Sean Mcvay’s group returned to the playoffs for the first time since winning the Super Bowl in 2021. Set to feature a new look on the defensive side of the ball following the return of Aaron Donald, Los Angeles will rely on rookies Jared Verse and Braden Fiske up front, along with second-year man Kobie Turner.
A popular Super Bowl pick across the NFL landscape, the Lions returned to the NFC Championship game for the first time since 1992 last season. Home to one of the best offensive trios in the game in receiver Amon Ra. St-Brown, running back Jahmyr Gibbs, and tight end Sam Laporta, the team also revamped its secondary in the offseason with the selections of Terrion Arnold, Ennis Rakestraw Jr., and the signing of Carlton Davis.
McVay and Stafford should provide the Lions with all they can handle in this one. Nonetheless, Detroit has the better roster and is 8-1 in its last nine games at Ford Field. Swallow the points and bet on the home team.
Pick: Lions (-4.5)
New York Jets (+4.5) vs San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)
One year removed from tearing his Achilles in the team’s opening game, Aaron Rodgers will look to stay healthy this season and snap the Jets 13-year playoff drought. Going all in around the 40-year-old quarterback in the offseason, general manager Joe Douglas bolstered the team’s offensive line with the signings of tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, along with the selection of Penn State’s Olu Fashanu.
San Francisco fell short of its ultimate goal for the third straight season. The 49ers were knocked off 25-22 by the Chiefs in Super Bowl 58. Following an offseason littered with storylines, Kyle Shanahan’s group saw the duo of Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk return to the fold after agreeing to lucrative contract extensions.
While this remains a long road trip for the Jets to open the season, Levi’s Stadium has also been Rodgers’ house of horrors throughout his career. San Francisco wins this one late, but I will take the Jets to keep it close.
Pick: Jets (+4.5)
Dallas Cowboys vs Cleveland Browns (O/U 40.5)
For the Dallas Cowboys, the 2023 season was a tale of two halves. One of the most electrifying offenses in football, the team averaged a league-high (30.1) points per game at AT&T Stadium. However, that number dropped to (23.1) on the road. Moreover, after ranking 15th in the NFL in rushing yards per game, Dallas saw Tony Pollard depart for the Tennesee Titans in free agency.
One of the best units in the NFL in 2023, the Cleveland Browns defense allowed just 13.9 points per game at home, the lowest mark in the league. Along with this, they surrendered 20 or fewer points seven different times while ranking sixth in sacks (49). Dallas finally got CeeDee Lamb back in the fold after his contract holdout. Still, the under has hit in four of the last five games between these two teams. That is where we’re going to lean in this one.
Pick: Under 40.5
Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers (O/U 40.5)
Gardner Minshew will start at quarterback for the Raiders. The 28-year-old edged out Aidan O’Connell to win the job. A former sixth-round, Minshew appeared in 13 games for the Raiders, completing over 62 percent of his passes for 3,305 yards and 15 touchdowns. Known for his pocket mobility and boom-or-bust potential, the Mississippi native will have a bevy of playmakers around him, including Davante Adams and rookie tight end Brock Bowers.
Now under the guidance of Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers hired the former Michigan Wolverines head coach in January. Aiming to put their disastrous 2023 campaign in the rearview mirror, Los Angeles finished a disappointing 5-12 while ranking 28th in total defense. Justin Herbert is back from his plantar fascia injury and still remains one of the dynamic young signal callers in the game. In a battle between these two bitter AFC West Rivals, play the over.
Pick: Over 40.5
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