Free NFL Football Picks & Best Bets Today – Week 4 (2024)
The 2024 NFL season is finally here, and we’ve got you covered with our free NFL football picks & best bets today. In this article, we’ll break down our top free NFL picks against the spread and highlight the best bets for Week 4 action. Plus, we’ll share the top betting targets for your favorite sportsbook. Let’s win some money together.
Happy Week 4 to all. As we reach the quarter mark of the 2024 NFL season, I think if I had to pick who the best team in the league is, it would be the Buffalo Bills. Fresh off a 47-10 rout of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Josh Allen cemented his case as the current MVP front-runner by tossing four touchdown passes. From halftime of week one to halftime of week 3, Sean McDermott’s group has outscored their opponents 89-24. Moreover, through three weeks, the team ranks fourth in yards per play (6.1) and first in points per game (37).
Without both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, the four-time defending AFC East Champions have evolved into an offense that features a unique blend of skillsets while keeping opposing defenses guessing, all led by its orchestrator in Joe Brady. Enjoy the games. Coming off a 4-2 week, here are the picks.
Free NFL Football Picks Today: Week 4
New Orleans Saints (+2.5) vs Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Atlanta fell to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Coming off an upset of the Philadelphia Eagles, Kirk Cousins and company had the chance to take the lead late. However, Bijan Robinson was stuffed on fourth-and-one at the Chiefs 13-yard line. Now sitting at 1-2 in the ultra-competitive NFC South, one matchup to watch in this one will be Atlanta’s offensive line against the Saint’s defensive line.
Normally one of the best units in football, the Falcons’ offensive line struggled to keep Cousins upright a week ago after losing center Drew Dalman and right tackle Kaleb McGary. Nonetheless, Derek Carr is just 33-49 on the road in his career. While the Saints’ offense has been the talk of the league through three weeks, look for the standout safety tandem of Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates to make enough plays to secure the victory.
Pick: Falcons (-2.5)
Cleveland Browns (+2.5) vs Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
The Browns have a Deshaun Watson problem and with no way out of it, we have to keep fading them until further notice. On the season, the 29-year-old ranks dead last in the league in total quarterback rating, yards per attempt, and yards per dropback. He has thrown three touchdown passes while being sacked 16 times, including eight in the team’s loss to the lowly New York Giants on Sunday.
Fresh off a shocking victory over the Baltimore Ravens, the Raiders lost 36-22 to the Carolina Panthers last Sunday. Making matters worse for the franchise, star pass rusher Maxx Crosby suffered a high ankle sprain. The former fourth-round pick missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. In one of the ugly games of the weekend, both of these offenses are struggling mightily right now. I will take Las Vegas to make just enough plays. The first to 14 might win.
Pick: Raiders (-2.5)
Los Angeles Rams (+3.0) vs Chicago Bears (-3.0)
A rare battle of two quarterbacks taken first overall in the NFL Draft. Despite being without both Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua, the Rams rallied from a 14-point deficit to stun the San Francisco 49ers. Guided by the play of their special teams, the team picked up a critical first down on a fake punt while also flipping the field on a long punt return late in the game.
Finally showing life offensively in their loss to the Indianapolis Colts, Caleb Williams threw for a career-high 363 yards. Since week one, the USC product has seen his completion percentage, yards, and yards per attempt increase each contest. Still searching for the first touchdown pass of his career, a Rams defense that ranks 29th in the league in passing yards per game (248.7) and 32nd in total yards per game (435.3) should be the perfect spot for the former Heisman Trophy winner to accomplish the feat. I have a hard time betting against the brilliance of Sean McVay but it is hard to see a short-handed Los Angeles offense scoring enough points against a tough Bears defense.
Pick: Bears (-3.0)
Washington Commanders (+3.5) vs Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)
Welcome to the NFL, Jayden Daniels. In a record-setting performance, the LSU product tossed two touchdown passes while adding a score on the ground to help the Commanders stun the Cincinnati Bengals 38-33. He also completed a rookie-record 91.3 percent of his passes. Washington is now the first team in the Super Bowl era to play two consecutive games without punting the ball or turning it over.
Before falling flat in their loss to the Detroit Lions, the Cardinals were one of the hottest offenses in the league. Arizona ranks in the top ten in rushing yards per game (144), total yards per game (355.7), and points per game (27.3). Finally returning to form in his return from ACL surgery, Kyler Murray has thrown for 635 yards this season while completing over 68 percent of his passes.
Moreover, he has tossed five touchdown passes to just one interception. This matchup should feature no shortage of points in a battle between two of the game’s most dynamic quarterbacks. However, travelling across the country in a short week is a tall task for the rookie. Swallow the points and take the Cardinals.
Pick: Cardinals (-3.5)
Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers (O/U 43.5)
What Kevin O’Connell has done with Sam Darold this season has been remarkable. Fresh off a four-touchdown performance in the Viking’s win over the Houston Texans, the former third-overall pick leads the NFL with eight touchdown passes through three weeks. He also sits fifth in yards per pass thrown (8.4) and second in passer rating (117.3) behind only Allen. As a result, the USC product has begun to draw MVP buzz across the league.
For the Packers, it has been no Jordan Love and no problem over the last two games. Undefeated under backup quarterback Malik Willis, the Packers rolled over the Tennessee Titans 30-14 last Sunday. With Love likely to return in this one just two weeks after suffering a Torn MCL against the Eagles, Minnesota’s magical run to start the year should come to an end. Brian Flores’s defense will provide one of the toughest tests in the league. Nevertheless, Green Bay wins and covers at home in one of the better games of the weekend.
Pick: Over 43.5
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts (O/U 40.5)
In arguably the most shocking story around the NFL early on, the Steelers sit at 3-0 for the first time since 2020. Led by the play of their dominant defense, Pittsburgh has allowed ten or fewer points per game in each of their first three games. This is the first time since 2011 that the team has held three consecutive opponents to ten points or fewer. Furthermore, they are surrendering just 229 yards per game while allowing opponents to convert just 21.9 percent of their third downs, both the highest marks in the league.
Anthony Richardson has struggled mightily to begin his sophomore campaign. The Miami native sits last in the NFL in completion percentage (49.3) while leading the league in interceptions (6). Moreover, the 22-year-old has a 39.4 percent on-target throw rate, one of the lowest in the NFL. Pair this with a Pittsburgh defense that has smothered opponents at a historic pace to open up the year, and we’re going to play the under in this one.
Pick: Under 40.5
Trending Now
