Free NFL Football Picks & Best Bets Today – Week 5 (2024)
The 2024 NFL season is finally here, and we’ve got you covered with our free NFL football picks & best bets today. In this article, we’ll break down our top free NFL picks against the spread and highlight the best bets for Week 5 action. Plus, we’ll share the top betting targets for your favorite sportsbook. Let’s win some money together.
Week 5 is officially upon us. Before we get to the picks for the week, I have a question. Who had the Washington Commanders atop the NFC East one month into the season? Put your hand down you are lying. I cannot believe what is going on in Washington. It is truly incredible that they sit at 3-1, considering they fired their entire coaching staff a year ago. Coming off a 42-14 beatdown over the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, Jayden Daniels has become the runaway front-runner for Offensive Rookie of The Year while entering his name into the MVP conversation.
The reigning Heisman Trophy winner is completing 82.1 percent of his passes, the highest by any quarterback through four games since Tom Brady in 2007. Moreover, the Commanders are the first team since the 1973 Rams with more scoring drives (23) than incompletions (19) through the first month of a season. But as always, without further ado, let’s get into the important stuff. Coming off a 3-3 week, here are the picks.
Free NFL Football Picks Today: Week 5
Carolina Panthers (+4) vs Chicago Bears (-4)
Following the benching of Bryce Young, the Panther’s offense has looked revamped over the last two weeks. The team routed the Las Vegas Raiders 36-22 in week 3. Along with this, Carolina eclipsed 400 yards in their loss to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday behind a season-high 106 yards on the ground from Chubba Hubbard.
Beginning to show glimpses of the traits that made him the first overall pick in April’s NFL Draft, Caleb Williams led four scoring drives in the Bears’ 24-18 victory over the Los Angeles Rams. The USC product found D.J. Moore on a nine-yard touchdown strike in the third quarter. Furthermore, after a slow start to the year, D’Andre Swift amassed a season-high 93 rushing yards while adding a score. While Carolina’s defense comes into this one banged up following the loss of Shaq Thompson to a season-ending Achilles injury, Chicago’s offense is still a work in progress. It is hard to trust Shane Waldron in this spot. Take the points and bet on the Panthers.
Pick: Panthers (+4)
Buffalo Bills (-1.0) vs Houston Texans (+1.0)
One of the hottest teams in the NFL, the Bills jumped out to a 3-0 start. However, the team was blown out by the Baltimore Ravens 35-10 on Sunday Night Football. Unable to stop Derrick Henry and the Raven’s potent ground attack, Buffalo’s mounting list of injuries on defense finally caught up with them. Henry amassed a season-high 199 yards, including an 87-yard touchdown burst on his first handoff of the game.
The Texans bounced back after getting blown out by the Minnesota Vikings. Demeco Ryans’s group knocked off their AFC South rival, Jacksonville Jaguars 24-20. C.J. Stroud amassed the finest game of the season, passing for 345 yards and two touchdowns. Furthermore, Nico Collins continued his case for the game’s top wide receiver, hauling in 12 receptions for 151 yards and a touchdown.
While Houston continues to draw Super Bowl buzz across the league, they have struggled to stop the run through four weeks, allowing nearly five yards per carry. Enter a Buffalo team that excels at running the football. In what could be an AFC playoff preview, I will take the Bills to win a close one.
Pick: Bills (-1.0)
Cleveland Browns (+3) vs Washington Commanders (-3)
Losers of two straight games, the Browns remain in free-fall mode. Cleveland has yet to score 20 points in a game this season. The team ranks in the bottom three in the NFL in passing yards per game (151.5), total yards per game (276.5), and third down percentage (20.8).
Set to square off against a red-hot Commanders group; Daniels has thrown for 897 yards and three touchdowns in four games while averaging nearly nine yards per attempt. Along with this, the LSU product has added 218 yards on the ground and four more scores. Everyone keeps waiting for Washington’s bubble to burst and for them to return to earth. While that could happen against a stingy Cleveland defense, betting against Deshaun Watson is smart money.
Pick: Commanders (-3)
Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) vs San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)
San Francisco snapped its two-game losing streak by rolling the lowly New England Patriots 30-13. Despite having both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle back healthy, Jauan Jennings led the way through the air by hauling in three receptions for 88 yards. Meanwhile, Jordan Mason rushed for 123 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries.
Quickly falling down the standings in the NFC, the Cardinals failed to score over 14 points for the second straight week in their loss to Washington. Struggling to find consistency in the passing game, Arizona ranks 25th in the league in passing yards per game (179.8) and 18th in yards per pass attempt (7.2). Furthermore, Jonathan Gannon’s defense has been unable to get opponents off the field, allowing nearly 27 points per contest. 7.5 points is a big number. Nonetheless, the 49ers are 2-0 against the spread at home this season. Look for that trend to continue in this one.
Pick: 49ers (-7.5)
Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams (O/U 48.5)
It was a case of too little too late for the Packers in their loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay fell behind 28-0 in the first quarter before battling back in the second half. Matt Lafleur’s group scored 22 points in the fourth quarter before ultimately falling 31-29. Jordan Love finished on fire by completing 13 of his 17 passes for 202 yards and three touchdown passes.
Now looking up in the ultra-competitive NFC West at 1-3, the Ram’s early season struggles continued in their loss to the Chicago Bears. Unable to overcome the losses of both Puca Nacua and Cooper Kupp, the team scored just 18 points. Furthermore, Sean Mcvay’s group could not contain Williams. The reigning first-overall led four scoring drives. Los Angeles has now failed to hold an opponent below 24 points this season. With a high-powered Green Bay offense on deck, expect points to come in bunches on Sunday.
Pick: Over 48.5
New Orleans Saints vs Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 43.5)
Off to their third 4-0 start in the last five years, the Chiefs found a way to win against the Los Angeles Chargers. Patrick Mahomes rediscovered his connection with Travis Kelce following a slow start to the season for the four-time All-Pro. Kelce hauled in a season-high seven receptions for 89 yards. Impressively, he set the franchise record for receptions by a tight end, surpassing the legendary Tony Gonzalez. However, it was not all good for the reigning Super Bowl Champions. Second-year wide receiver Rashee Rice was carted off the field due to a knee injury.
Suddenly coming down to earth after their 2-0 start, the Saints racked up a season-low 219 yards of offense in their 15-12 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Derek Carr has struggled at Arrowhead Stadium in his career, averaging just 227 passing yards, one interception, and one touchdown per game in seven starts. Pair that with a decimated Kansas City offense, and we’re going to play the under in this one.
Pick: Under 43.5
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