Free NFL Player Prop Bets – Thursday Night Football (Week 9)
Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets. Week 9 of the 2024 NFL regular season kicks off tonight with Thursday Night Football. We wrap up the month of October here on Halloween with a matchup between CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans versus Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets. Let’s dive into our free NFL player prop bets for tonight.
Free NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football in Week 8
While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which NFL player prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite player prop bets for Thursday’s contest. Keep in mind, that all props and odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
C.J. Stroud Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-200)
Many had high hopes for Stroud after an impressive rookie season. However, the second-year pro hasn’t lived up to them. Stroud has averaged 1.4 passing touchdowns per game this year. More importantly, he had one or fewer passing touchdowns in 62.5% of the games, including three of the past four contests. The former Ohio State star is in the middle of a rough patch, totaling one touchdown over the past two weeks.
Unfortunately, Stroud will be without Nico Collins (hamstring) and Stefon Diggs (knee) for this game. Leaving him with limited options in the passing game. Meanwhile, New York has surrendered only six passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, the third-fewest in the NFL. They have held quarterbacks to one or fewer passing scores in 75% of their matchups. Furthermore, the Jets have surrendered zero passing touchdowns in more games (four) than over one (two) this year.
Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115)
While the Jets have a 2-6 record over the first eight weeks, the team’s passing attack has been solid. Rodgers has been consistent despite playing through multiple injuries. The future Hall of Famer has averaged 1.5 passing touchdowns per game this season, totaling at least one in all but one matchup. More importantly, he has two passing scores in 62.5% of the games, including last week and three of the past four contests.
Meanwhile, the Texans’ pass defense has struggled this year. They have surrendered 16 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks, the fourth-most in the NFL. Houston has given up two or more passing touchdowns in 62.5% of their games, including three scores in two of the past three weeks. Two of the three games where the Texans held quarterbacks under two passing touchdowns were against young quarterbacks – Caleb Williams and Anthony Richardson. Expect Rodgers to have at least two touchdowns tonight.
Joe Mixon Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Mixon has been outstanding this season, averaging 100.6 rushing yards per game. Furthermore, the veteran running back has averaged 119.5 yards per game in the four contests he finished, totaling 102 or more in every matchup. The Texans have made Mixon the focal point of their offense, giving him 25 or more rushing attempts in 60% of his games, including back-to-back weeks. More importantly, he has an excellent matchup against the Jets.
New York has surrendered 101.5 rushing yards per game to running backs, giving up 123 or more in half of their matchups. Furthermore, they’ve allowed three rushing touchdowns to running backs over the past two weeks. Therefore, expect Mixon to have his way tonight. Bettors should consider parlaying the over on Mixon’s rushing total and an anytime touchdown (+130) or two scores (+460). He has totaled two touchdowns in two of the past three games.
Breece Hall Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Jets’ rushing attack has been hit or miss. However, Hall has been productive when he gets enough volume. The former Iowa State star has averaged 53.5 rushing yards per game this season. However, he has averaged 72.6 rushing yards per game in the five contests with at least 14 attempts, including 80 or more in two of the past three weeks. DraftKings has Hall’s rushing attempts set at 15.5, so they anticipate him getting a solid workload.
More importantly, the superstar should have his way with Houston’s defense. The Texans have surrendered 98 rushing yards per game to running backs over the past six weeks, giving up 87 or more in all but one contest. Furthermore, they have been without Mario Edwards Jr. for the past two weeks because of a suspension, giving up 96 rushing yards per game to running backs in those two matchups. Ultimately, Hall should dominate with Edwards out again this week.
Tank Dell Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Unfortunately, the Texans’ elite wide receiver has been obliterated by injuries. Stefon Diggs is out for the season with a torn ACL. Meanwhile, Nico Collins has to miss at least one more game with a hamstring injury. Therefore, Stroud will have Dell and several reserve wide receivers for tonight’s game. The second-year pro has struggled, averaging 32.7 receiving yards per game this year. Notably, he has had more than 57 receiving yards only once.
Dell hasn’t seen much target volume with Diggs and Collins playing, totaling four or fewer targets in 57.1% of the games, including three of the past four contests. However, he should see plenty of work tonight as Stroud’s No. 1 wide receiver. Meanwhile, the Jets have a talented secondary. Yet, they’ve had their issues slowing down opposing No. 1 wide receivers, surrendering 69.1 receiving yards per game, including 60 or more in 62.5% of the contests.
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