Josh Allen 2024 Fantasy Outlook: The Unquestioned QB1?

The start of NFL training camps is on the horizon. Fantasy football drafts everywhere will soon take place as managers look to select a league-winning team. The gold standard at the quarterback position, Josh Allen has finished as QB1 in three of the last four years. He has averaged 34 touchdowns through the air and nine on the ground during that span.

However, after trading star wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans in April, the Buffalo Bills also saw Gabriel Davis depart for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Furthermore, the team chose to move on from both Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield. This leaves a completely overhauled wide receiver room in Western New York. Should Allen still be the consensus top quarterback in 2024? In this article, I will dive into his fantasy football outlook for the upcoming season as well as his dynasty football value.

QB Josh Allen Fantasy Value

Allen has been a model of consistency in fantasy since taking over as the Bills full-time starter in 2019. He (22.2) trails only Patrick Mahomes in career fantasy points per game (22.4). The former seventh overall pick helped to guide Buffalo to its fourth straight AFC East division crown in 2023. Allen completed 66.5 percent of his throws for 4,306 yards and 29 touchdown passes. Along with this, the Firebaugh, California native also added 524 yards on the ground and a career-high 15 rushing scores.

Set to head into year 2 under the guidance of Joe Brady, the Bills focused on the run game after promoting him to offensive coordinator. As a result, Allen averaged 2.5 fewer pass attempts and 18 fewer pass yards per game from week 11 on. However, he averaged 9.2 rushes per game while carrying the ball 21 times inside the ten-yard line.

Fantasy Football Outlook

The 28-year-old is ranked among the top three quarterbacks this offseason in every scoring format. However, Allen should once again be the clear-cut QB1. Despite the loss of his longtime number-one target in Diggs, the Bills brought in Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling while drafting Keon Coleman. Furthermore, expect Dalton Kincaid to take a leap forward in year 2. The University of Utah product set the franchise record as a rookie for most catches (73) and receiving yards (673) by a tight end.

Meanwhile, his elite rushing production is also a key reason why fantasy owners should not be worried about a drop-off through the air. Allen ranks fifth among quarterbacks in NFL history in yards per game on the ground (38.4). Moreover, the veteran set the single-season record for rushing touchdowns by a signal caller in 2023 (15). He came one score shy of tying the Bills franchise record held by O.J. Simpson.

Dynasty Football Outlook

With Mahomes and Jalen Hurts making the case to be QB1 in dynasty fantasy football leagues, Allen still has both the highest floor and upside of any signal-caller in the league. He finished as QB1 13 times last season while scoring over 30 points thrice. Still offering a unique combination of both passing and rushing, Allen accounted for 44 of Buffalo’s 51 touchdowns.

Moving to a more spread-the-wealth approach on offense after parting ways with both Diggs and Davis, Coleman and Samuel will likely man the boundary spots. In contrast, third-year man Khalil Shakir should operate primarily in the slot following a strong end to 2023. Lastly, look for the Bills to utilize more two-tight end sets (12 personnel) under Brady to get both Kincaid and Knox on the field simultaneously.

Conclusion

Currently, the number one ranked passer in both standard and PPR scoring leagues, Allen has an ADP of 16. He is worth that price. A one-time runner-up for the NFL’s MVP award, the 6’5 quarterback has had no fewer than 4,283 pass yards or 29 TD passes in any of his four most recent seasons.

Furthermore, while he lost his number-one target in Diggs, Allen connected with ten different players for touchdown passes in 2023. In the end, he should continue to spread the ball around in Brady’s scheme this season.

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