Josh Jacobs 2024 Fantasy Outlook: No Longer An RB1?
The 2024 fantasy football season is quickly approaching and many drafts will be taking place over the next few weeks. One of the bigger free agent signings this past offseason was that of Josh Jacobs by the Green Bay Packers. Will Jacobs 2024 performance be closer to his monstrous 2022 season or his mediocre 2023 season?
In this article, we’ll dive into Jacobs’ 2024 fantasy football value, analyzing last year’s performance, his current team dynamics, and his potential for the upcoming season. We’ll explore his strengths, potential red flags, and compare him to other running backs in the league. Whether you’re contemplating drafting him or trading for him in your dynasty league, this comprehensive analysis will help you make an informed decision on Jacobs.
RB Josh Jacobs Fantasy Football Outlook (2024)
In 2022, Jacobs had a phenomenal season and finished as the RB3 with almost 400 touches, over 2,000 total yards, and 12 touchdowns. Last season he played in 13 games, finishing as the RB23 with over 1100 total yards and 6 touchdowns. This offseason saw Jacobs leave the Las Vegas Raiders and sign a massive four-year, 48-million-dollar contract with the Green Bay Packers. Which version of Jacobs will we see in Green Bay? Will it be the 2022 one or 2023? Or somewhere in the middle?
2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Heading into this season, Jacobs is being valued as a borderline back-end RB1; depending where you look he is hovering between RB12-13. There is optimism that Jacobs will rebound this year on an ascending Packers offense led by quarterback Jordan Love.
Simply put, Jacobs was bad last year. Notably, his yards per carry fell from 5.0 in 2022 to 3.5 last year. More yet, he ranked 50th out of 52 running backs in yards per carry after initial contact after the line of scrimmage. Needless to say, he wasn’t very efficient but rather was more of a volume play.
Did the almost 400 touches in 2022 break Jacobs? Perhaps the Raiders offensive line hindered him? If that were the case, then it surely wouldn’t stop Zamir White from being more productive on the same offense. In the five games that Jacobs missed and White was the starter, White amassed 451 rushing yards – more than half of Jacobs’ 805 rushing yards for the year!
There is little chance that Jacobs will come close to his almost 400-touch season in 2022. Head coach Matt LaFleur was quoted as saying “Typically, we like to platoon those guys, whether it’s two guys or three guys.”
Furthermore, the Packers resigned plodder A.J. Dillon and drafted rookie running back MarShawn Lloyd in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. LaFleur has also said that he wants to use Lloyd in the passing game which comes as no surprise since Jacobs does not have a single receiving touchdown in his five year career. Lafleur has also shown a tendency to use a committee approach with his running backs in the past. In Tennessee, he once gave Dion Lewis 155 touches with a healthy Derrick Henry in the backfield!
Dynasty Football Outlook
Jacobs will be turning 27 at the end of the upcoming season. Right now, his dynasty ADP is RB15. Additionally, there is a potential out for the Packers from Jacobs’ contract after this year. That along with the drafting of Lloyd has me concerned that this could be a one-year audition for Jacobs with the Packers. I would look to trade Jacobs off of any hype he may have signed with the Packers.
Conclusion
Which Jacobs will emerge this upcoming season? The 2022 RB3 version or the statistically bad 2023 version? The outcome will probably lie somewhere in between. Additionally, while his ADP of RB12-13 isn’t unreasonable, in redraft leagues I would rather draft the running backs right after Jacobs such as Joe Mixon, Rachaad White, or Kenneth Walker.
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