Justin Jefferson 2024 Fantasy Outlook: Thriving Under Any QB
A year ago, Justin Jefferson was the consensus number-one wide receiver in the fantasy football community. Showcasing his elite talent, the 25-year-old hauled in 68 receptions for 1,068 yards and five touchdowns despite missing seven games due to a hamstring injury. Furthermore, the Minnesota Vikings also lost quarterback Kirk Cousins to an Achilles injury in week 8. Nonetheless, the LSU product finished as WR5 in half-point PPR leagues on a points-per-game basis (16.8).
While there are concerns surrounding the three-time Pro Bowler heading into the 2024 season, the Vikings are set to start either Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy following the departure of Kirk Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons in free agency. Should Jefferson still be in the mix to be the first player drafted at his position? Let’s get into the value and outlook for him in 2024.
Continue reading to find out why Justin Jefferson 2024 fantasy outlook is promising despite the Vikings’ quarterback conundrum.
WR Justin Jefferson Fantasy Football Outlook
Jefferson eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark a year ago despite starting just nine games. He set new career highs in target share (28%) and yards per route run (2.91). This was in the face of Minnesota starting four different quarterbacks throughout the season. The former NFL Offensive Player of the Year also led all WRs in fantasy points scored (21.7 per game) before Cousins went down with an injury while earning a 91.2 grade from Pro Football Focus.
Playing his final four contests with Nick Mullens under center, the one-time Second-team All-SEC member was dominant. He caught 30 passes on 44 targets for 476 yards and two touchdowns. As a result, Jefferson averaged 22.1 PPR points per game over that span.
Justin Jefferson 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Regardless of the quarterback situation in Minnesota heading into the season, fantasy managers should still expect Jefferson to post monster numbers. He has been one of the most consistent receivers in the league, averaging at least 17.1 PPR points per game over four years. Moreover, the Louisiana native also has multiple games with over 35 points. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has proven he can scheme up ways to get his best player the ball regardless of who is throwing him passes.
Dynasty Football Outlook
As expected, Jefferson’s dynasty fantasy football value is still sky high. He managed to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark in 2023, even with missing seven games due to a hamstring issue. He averaged 107.4 receiving yards per game, the second-highest mark in the league behind Tyreek Hill. Remaining on a hall-of-fame trajectory through the early parts of his career, he has set an NFL record for the most receiving yards through a player’s first four seasons.
While Jefferson does not have his long-term quarterback situation locked in like Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow with the Cincinnati Bengals, the former College Football National Champion proved he can thrive under any quarterback situation last season. Furthermore, after signing a four-year $140 million extension this offseason, he will be tied to one of the game’s brightest young offensive minds in O’Conell for the foreseeable future.
Conclusion
With a current ADP of five in full PPR leagues, Jefferson is in the mix with Ceedee Lamb, Hill, Chase, and Amon-Ra St.Brown to be the first wide receiver off the board in drafts. A quarterback-proof option, he managed 22.4 points per game during the final month of the season while catching passes from Jarren Hall and Nick Mullens. A lock to finish amongst the top five at his position if either Darnold or McCarthy finds success, Jefferson has WR1 upside.
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