Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid – Best Bet

Over 2.5 Goals +105

Manchester United will travel to Spain to take on Atletico Madrid in the first leg of the Champions League. With Manchester United being 17 points behind league leaders, Manchester City, the Red Devils’ focus is now trying to win the Champions League and also finishing top-four in the league to qualify for Champions League to bring back Ronaldo for next season. Manchester United really lacks in defending and continues to concede goals. Since December, Manchester United has conceded in 11 games out of 16 they played and most United supporters continue to point their finger at the Captain, Harry Maguire. When watching Manchester United it’s easy to point out Maguire is United’s worst player out there and questions have to begin as to why he is their Captain. Manchester United has conceded the most goals out of any team in the top-five, 34 goals,  in the Premier League, and also the second-most goals out of all top-10 teams.

United currently owns the 7th worst xGA in the Premier League and are one of the two teams that are top-five in the table that are bottom 10 in xGA, When looking at the top-three in Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City they all sit as the best three xGA in the Premier League. It’s very obvious how bad United has been defending but with United traveling to Spain, their xGA only gets worse when playing away from home. Away from home in the Premier League United xGA is 4th worst in the league and to show bad that is, the closest team with an awful xGA away from home inside the top-fve league table currently has the 4th best xGA away from home. We all know United struggles isn’t the attacking part as they’ve seen them score at least one goal in 20 out of their last 23 games and with the talent upfront with the likes of Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford, and Jaden Sancho would not be surprised if United are able to grab either one or two huge away goals heading back home for Leg 2.

Manchester United owns the fourth-best xG in the Premier League and third-best xG when playing away from home. Turning over to Atletico Madrid it has been a problematic season for them, from winning the league title last year to now sitting fifth and out of contention for the league title. A lot of problems for this side but the number one thing that stands out is the goals conceded through 25 league games. Since Diego Simeone took over at Atletico Madrid in 2011 this has been the most goals the club has ever seen given up during his spell at Atletico Madrid, and yet they still have 13 games to play, Mind-blowing.

Diego Someone is a very tactical manager and his first mindset is in defending yet this season this is the most goals he’s seen his club given up also they’ve given up the most goals out of any team inside the top 10 in the league table but yet have the best xGA in LaLiga. So what seems to be the problem if they own the best xGA in LaLiga? Most of the trouble has been from the Goalie Oblak who was once considered a top-five best goalie in the world has now had a nightmare of a season, Oblak owns the worst post shots xG minus goals allowed in the league at -10.2 this year. Oblak has also seen the most goals conceded per game this season at 1.4 than he’s ever seen in his career. The poor form of Oblak has caused Atletico Madrid to go from winning the title last year to now sitting 16 points behind 1st place in LaLiga.

The attacking side for Atletico Madrid hasn’t been a problem as they own the 5th best xG in LaLiga and with the problems Manchester United has had defending Atletico Madrid should find the back of the net today.

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