March Madness kicks off Thursday with an overwhelming amount of games, all playing at once. Future bets are the route to take to lower the stress level of all the madness happening at once. An average of nine upsets occur every year in the first round. We’ll take a look at a couple of teams going under the radar to make a run in the tournament.
Michigan State To Reach The Sweet 16
+270 (Via DraftKings)
Tom Izzo will try to lead his Spartans to a Championship run starting Friday. This tournament will mark his 25th consecutive appearance in the NCAA tournament. Michigan State as the 7th seed drew USC in the first round and will play Friday.
The Spartans were lucky to find themselves drawn up in a favorable match-up vs USC. All season Michigan State has been beaten up by scoring bigs, but that won’t seem to be the problem for them on Friday as USC Center Joshua Morgan isn’t much of a scorer but instead more of a rebounder and shot blocker. Both these teams play the same style, slowing the game down and playing hard defense.
The Spartans are led by both seniors Tyson Walker and Joey Hauser, and junior AJ Hoggard. All three are scoring options for the Spartans and all averaging double digits on the season. The problem with USC is they don’t have many scoring options outside of Boogie Ellis who is an impressive scorer and can give you 25-30 points on any given night, but USC can quickly find themselves in deep trouble if Ellis finds himself in foul trouble.
Michigan State was the number one three-point shooting team and also allowed teams to shoot 30% from three which was also number one in conference play. Additionally, they rank 40th in the country in defensive efficiency and can try to shut down Boogie Ellis out of this game.
Michigan State winning would then see either Marquette or Vermont for a chance to play in the 2nd week of the NCAA tournament. There is a chance Vermont upsets Marquette as that seems to be the public play but Marquette handles business and sees Michigan State in the 2nd round. Additionally, Marquette is a very good team with an impressive offense. Unfortunately, during the season seemed to struggle against top defensive teams.
To begin the year Marquette saw them losing to Purdue, Wisconsin, and UConn while beating UConn the next two times in close contests. All three teams rank inside the top twenty-five in the country in defensive efficiency. The Spartan’s defense can completely slow down this Marquette team giving Shaka Smart headaches.
Shake Smart of course has had his struggles in March. The question is will Shaka Smart continue to struggle in March and see Tom Izzo moving on to the sweet sixteen Shaka Smart since taking his VCU team to the final four in 2011 has seen his VCU and Texas teams not surpass the Round of 32 in his last 6 tries.
Kent State To Reach The Sweet 16
Kent State led by Rob Senderoff is one of my favorite underdog teams throughout the bracket. This squad led by senior, Sincere Carry who is an explosive scorer. Not to mention, senior guard, Malique Jacobs has a very good chance at upsetting Indiana and being the cinderella team this year.
Kent State played Houston and Gonzaga earlier in the year and nearly pulled the upset in both games. Against Houston with one minute left Kent State found themselves leading but not until giving up a six-to-zero run to lose the game 49-44. Furthermore, versus Gonzaga they found themselves leading by four with ten minutes left until only scoring seven points for the rest of the game and losing by seven, 73-66. In both games vs very tough opponents, Kent State found themselves with the lead but struggled to close it out.
This is a very good athletic team that loves to get after it on the defensive side, forcing sixteen turnovers per game which ranks 19th in the country, and 9.1 steals per game, 12th in the country. Carry and Jacobs both made the “1st team All defensive team” and can completely shut out Indiana guards and force Trayce Jackson-Davis to try to beat Kent State himself which will most likely not get the job done.
I’m a huge fan of Jackson-Davis and believe they could’ve made some noise in March but seemed to get a matchup that isn’t favorable. Indiana hasn’t been playing their best basketball either down the stretch winning four out of their last eight games. Not reaching the Big 10 conference championship game is disappointing as well.
If Kent State pulls off the upset they’ll match up with 5th seed Miami or Drake. Drake could spoil the party for Miami as they have an impressive player in Tucker DeVries. This 2nd round match-up will most likely allow us to hedge for guaranteed profit if we decide to go down that route. Whether Kent State plays Miami or Drake I have both games being very close on the spread giving us a chance to hedge for guaranteed profit.
Best Bets and Longshots
Xavier
To Reach The Sweet 16 +105
Xavier has a favorable schedule to reach the Sweet 16. Playing Keenaw State first round and possibly facing an 11th seed in the 2nd round. Furthermore, Xavier is led by senior Souley Boum who can take over a game very quickly once he sees it go through the basket. Finishing up Xavier’s one-two punch with Boum is Colby Jones who is on a lot of NBA scout’s draft boards.
UConn
To Reach The Sweet 16 -115
UConn is another team with a very favorable schedule to reach the sweet sixteen. I believe they will take care of business in the first round vs Iona as Iona is overmatched. Come March you want to back teams that can make stops, Dan Hurley’s team is ranked top twenty-five in defensive efficiency. Overall, Jordan Hawkins and Adama Sanogo will be too much for teams to handle early in the tournament.
Memphis
To Reach The Sweet 16 +400
Memphis comes into the tournament as one of the hottest teams winning 8 out of 10. They gained a lot of attention after beating the number-one seed Houston and winning the ACC Conference Championship. This bet could very well come down to playing against Purdue, winner reaches Sweet 16. Other than Zach Edey Purdue is surrounded by three freshmen guards in the starting lineup. Overall, the experience will be one of the keys to success come March and Memphis could take advantage of these freshmen guards.
Arizona
To Reach The Final +700
Arizona has one of the best offenses in the country led by, “Second Team, All-American” Azuolas Tubelis. Add in Kerr Kriisa and Texas transfer Courtney Ramsey and teams will have a lot to handle. Furthermore, they have one of the best offensive efficiency teams as they are 4th best scoring team in the country. Teams will have to put in their best offensive game to eliminate this Arizona team.
Houston
To Reach The Final +250
Houston will begin to write their story on Thursday in trying to play in the championship game at home in Houston Texas. Marcus Sasser is one of the best guards in the country and is also a “First Team, All-American”. This team is one of the best defensive teams in the country and can go as far as Sasser takes them. The core of this team saw themselves reach the Elite Eight in their second year with Houston. Lack of experience definitely will not be a problem.
We will also have picks for every game in March Madness 2023 tournament you can find here.
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