MLB Best Bet of the Day – Javier Assad Player Prop
Welcome back to another edition of our MLB best bet of the day. Today, we have a full 15-game schedule comprises the Tuesday MLB slate today. We’ll be targeting a player prop bet in the Chicago Cubs game against the Cleveland Guardians.
In addition to the on-field action, there are plenty of value plays available across the board for prospective bettors to choose and hopefully profit from.
Let’s take a look and examine my favorite MLB best bet for Tuesday, August 13.
All MLB odds and lines are current as of Tuesday, August, 13, at 2:30 PM, EST and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Domenic Lunardo’s 2024 MLB Betting Record: 3-3-0 (-0.16 Units)
Bet Name: Javier Assad (CHC) UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts
Matchup: Chicago Cubs (59-61) vs. Cleveland Guardians (70-49)
Sportsbook: DraftKings Sportsbook
Odds: (-130)
Wager: 1 Unit
MLB Best Bet of the Day – Javier Assad Player Prop
Our best bet of the day will target Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Javier Assad to go Under his strikeout prop, currently set at 3.5, on a single-unit wager on the road against the Cleveland Guardians.
At 59-61 (.492), the Cubs have had an up-and-down campaign thus far in 2024. However, they have received some stellar pitching in the form of Assad, who has posted a 5-3 overall record, to go along with a 3.24 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 102.2 innings pitched through 21 appearances.
That being said, Assad has generated some rather underwhelming figures in the advanced metrics/analytics sector of the game, which may loom large against the A.L. Central-leading Guardians.
In terms of percentile rankings among MLB starters, Assad ranks in the 35th percentile in xBA (.254), fifth in Whiff% (18.3%), ninth in Chase% (23.8%), 32nd in K% (20.2%), and 21st in BB% (10.5%). These figures speak to Assad’s inability to retire batters, specifically via the strikeout, which bodes well for the Under on his strikeout prop.
On the other side of the spectrum, the Guardians continue to play excellent baseball under first-year manager Stephen Vogt. As a team, Cleveland ranks fourth in MLB in both strikeouts (868) and Zone Swing% (69.8%), sixth in Whiff% (23%), and seventh in Batted Balls (16,798).
Assad has also failed to exceed 3.5 strikeouts in five of his past six starts, which translates to a whopping 83.3% success/hit rate.
Look for the Cubs righty to go Under 3.5 strikeouts this evening at an enticing (-130) price point.
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