MLB Best Bet of the Day – Rafael Devers Player Prop Bet
A nine-game schedule makes up the Monday MLB slate today.
In addition to the on-field action, there are plenty of value plays available across the board for prospective bettors to choose and hopefully profit from.
Let’s take a look and examine my favorite MLB best bet for Monday, August 5.
All MLB odds and lines are current as of Monday, August, 5th, at 10:30 AM, EST. and courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook.
Domenic Lunardo’s 2024 MLB Betting Record: 2-3-0 (-1.21 Units)
Bet Name: Rafael Devers (BOS) OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Matchup: Boston Red Sox (59-51) vs. Kansas City Royals (63-50)
Sportsbook: bet365 Sportsbook
Odds: (+105)
Wager: 1 Unit
MLB Best Bet of the Day – Rafael Devers Player Prop
Our MLB best bet of the day will target Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers to surpass 1.5 total bases on a single-unit wager. Today, the Boston Red Sox will go on the road against the Kansas City Royals.
The 2024 MLB campaign has seen Devers slash an impressive .382/.607/.989, to go along with a .305 batting average, 25 home runs, 70 RBIs, and 114 hits in 374 plate appearances. As one of baseball’s most dangerous hitters, the 27-year-old has also posted some phenomenal figures in the advanced statistics/analytics department.
In terms of percentile rankings among MLB hitters, Devers ranks in the 97th percentile in xSLG (.574), 96th in xwOBA (.393), 93rd in Barrel% (14.7%), and 98th in both Average Exit Velocity (94.5 mph) and Hard-Hit% (55.2%), via Baseball Savant. The final three metrics speak to his ability to make consistent, solid contact, which bodes extremely well for his total base prop.
Tonight, Devers faces a favorable pitching matchup in Brady Singer, who in lieu of his 2.88 ERA in 125 inning-pitched, has struggled in a wide variety of advanced metrics. Thus far this season among MLB starters, Singer ranks in the 36th percentile in xBAPIP (.294), 40th in Str% (63.7%), 38th in SwStr% (10.8%), and 11th in Z-Con% (88.3%), per Pitcher List.
Considering Devers has hit this prop in 9 of his past 11 games (81.8% success rate), combined with an excellent price point (+105), this looks like a terrific bet.
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