MLB Best Bet of the Day – Corbin Burnes Player Prop
A massive 15-game schedule makes up the Tuesday MLB slate today.
In addition to the on-field action, there are plenty of value plays available across the board for prospective bettors to choose and hopefully profit from.
Let’s take a look and examine my favorite MLB best bet for Tuesday, July 30.
All MLB odds and lines are current as of Tuesday, July 30, at 3:30 PM, EST and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Domenic Lunardo’s 2024 MLB Betting Record: 0-3-0 (-3.00 Units)
Bet Name: Corbin Burnes (BAL) OVER 5.5 Strikeouts
Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays (50-57) vs. Baltimore Orioles (63-44)
Sportsbook: DraftKings Sportsbook
Odds: (+110)
Wager: 1 Unit
MLB Best Bet of the Day – Corbin Burnes Player Prop
Our best bet of the day will target Baltimore Orioles RHP Corbin Burnes to exceed his strikeout prop, currently set at 5.5, on a single-unit wager.
Burnes has enjoyed a terrific season thus far in 2024 posting a 10-4 overall record to go along with a 1.04 WHIP, and a phenomenal 2.45 ERA, which ranks second among MLB starters. Burnes has also pitched to some terrific advanced metrics/analytics, posting a 3.64 SIERA, 3.42 xFIP, 5.7% BB%, and 23% K%, via FanGraphs.
Tonight, Burnes and the Orioles will be up against a rather depleted Toronto lineup which will be without the services of Bo Bichette (injured), Justin Turner (traded), and Danny Jansen (traded). In addition, the Jays’ struggle to score runs with any sort of regularity has been well-documented over the course of the 2024 campaign.
As a team, Toronto ranks 19th in BA (.240), 24th in Barrel% (7.1%), and 28th in xwOBAcon (.353), the latter ranking amongst the seventh-worst percentage in the Majors, per Baseball Savant.
After dropping the first game of the series yesterday, the O’s enter play this evening as (-218) home moneyline favorites, which carries with it a colossal 68.55% implied-win probability, meaning Baltimore is expected to play with a lead and provide Burnes with valuable run support.
Look for Burnes to fan at least six batters at a fantastic (+110) price point.
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