MLB Best Bet of the Day -Jeffrey Springs Player Prop
It’s Saturday in mid-August, where a loft 15-game schedule comprises the MLB slate today. In addition to the on-field action, there are plenty of value plays available across the board for prospective bettors to choose and hopefully profit from. I’ve been red-hot lately cashing in on each of my last five MLB Best Bet picks (+4.71 units) over that span.
So without further ado, let’s dive in and take a look and examine my favorite MLB best bet for Saturday, August 17.
All MLB odds and lines are current as of Saturday, August, 17, at 10:30 am E.T. and courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook.
Domenic Lunardo’s 2024 MLB Betting Record: 5-3-0 (+1.71 Units)
Bet Name: Jeffrey Springs (TB) UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts
Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks (69-54) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (60-61)
Sportsbook: bet365 Sportsbook
Odds: (+120)
Wager: 1 Unit
MLB Best Bet of the Day – Javier Assad Player Prop
Our best bet of the day will target Tampa Bay Rays LHP Jeffrey Springs to go Under his strikeout prop, currently set at 4.5, on a single-unit wager against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
An injury-riddled campaign has seen the Rays lefty limited to just three starts in 2024, where he has pitched to a 4.61 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 13.2 innings.
From an advanced metrics/analytical standpoint, Springs has struggled mightily ranking in the fourth percentile among his fellow starters in both SLG (.569) and xwOBA (.400), fifth in BABIP (.350), and 23rd in Whiff% (15.8%), via Pitcher List.
This afternoon, Springs and the Rays will be up against a stingy D-Backs lineup who have performed well at the plate all season long in addition to their 69-54 (.561) overall record.
As a team, Arizona ranks seventh across the Majors in strikeouts (949), third in BA (.261), second in OBP (.333), fourth in Batted Balls (3,305), and sixth in Chase% (26.8%), per Baseball Savant. The final two metrics hold particular significance on a strikeout wager as it speaks to Arizona’s tendencies to not swing out of the zone, make contact, and put balls in play.
In addition, Springs has gone Under this prop in two of his three starts this season, accounting for a favorable 66.6% success/hit rate. Look for the Tampa lefty to stay under 4.5 total strikeouts this afternoon at Tropicana Field at a terrific (+120) price point.
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