MNF Player Prop Bets: Bills vs. Bengals
Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.
Last week I had another excellent performance, going 4-1 on my prop bets for the second week in a row. Before getting benched, Zach Wilson threw an interception right before the half. On the other sideline, Trevor Lawrence had 51 rushing yards in the game, hitting the over on his prop bet. Meanwhile, Evan Engram and Tyler Conklin hit the over on their prop bet receiving yards.
Engram had 113 yards, going over his total by 68, while Conklin had 34, hitting the over by 12 yards. The only prop not to hit was Garrett Wilson over 57.5 receiving yards, as he ended the game with only 30. However, that’s not surprising given how poorly New York’s quarterback’s played. Now, let’s get down to business for this week.
Usually, I cover the Thursday night game every week in this article. However, the Tennessee Titans decided to wave the white flag before the game started, sitting several players, including Derrick Henry. Unfortunately, that made the betting market unfavorable. Therefore, I decided to skip that matchup and instead select prop bets for the Monday night game.
The Week 17 Monday night matchup is excellent as the Buffalo Bills head the Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. Both teams have plenty to fight for, so this game should be exciting. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sport bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for this game.
All odds are from DraftKings and Caesars.
Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-185)
The Bengals have won seven games in a row and still have a chance for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, but they must win this game. During their winning streak, Burrow has played well, averaging 2.4 passing touchdowns per contest, throwing two or more in 71.4% of those matchups. Furthermore, the star quarterback has thrown two or more touchdowns in 73.3% of the games this season, including four straight contests. Over the past two weeks, Burrow has been unbelievable, throwing seven touchdowns while averaging a touchdown once per 13 pass attempts.
Despite losing Von Miller to a season-ending knee injury on Thanksgiving, the Bills still have an elite defense. However, they have struggled when facing talented quarterbacks. Buffalo has surrendered only 18 passing touchdowns this season, the seventh-fewest in the NFL. Yet, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Jacoby Brissett all had at least two passing touchdowns against the Bills. Those five quarterbacks have accounted for 66.7% of the passing touchdowns against Buffalo this season. Burrow might not have another four-touchdown performance but should have no trouble throwing at least two touchdowns.
Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-145)
Last week Allen had a poor performance against the Chicago Bears, throwing two interceptions in the game for the fifth time this season. However, the superstar quarterback had two passing touchdowns as well. He has thrown at least two touchdowns in 66.7% of the games this year. Furthermore, the former first-round pick has thrown at least two passing touchdowns in four of the past five contests, including two straight games. Meanwhile, Allen has played better on the road than at home, throwing two or more touchdowns in three straight road games and 75% of road games this year.
More importantly, the Cincinnati secondary started the year on fire. The Bengals held quarterbacks to one or fewer passing touchdowns in the first eight games this season. However, the Bengals have dealt with injuries in the secondary lately, impacting their play on the field. Over the past three weeks, Cincinnati has surrendered two passing touchdowns per game to quarterbacks. Furthermore, they gave up two passing touchdowns to Mac Jones last week on only 33 pass attempts. Allen is more likely to have four passing touchdowns in this game than fewer than two.
Tee Higgins to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+140)
Ja’Marr Chase is a superstar and deserves every ounce of credit he gets and more. However, Higgins is arguably the most underrated wide receiver in the league. The former Clemson star has seven receiving touchdowns, the second-most on the team only behind Chase (eight). Yet, Higgins has been on fire lately, finding the end zone in four of the past five games. Furthermore, the one game he didn’t score a touchdown was in Week 14, when the star receiver only played one snap because of a hamstring injury. Over his past four healthy games, Higgins has averaged 7.8 targets per contest, scoring a touchdown once per 5.8 receptions.
Not only has Higgins been on fire lately, but the star receiver has an appealing matchup this week. Buffalo has a superstar cornerback, Tre’Davious White, who could end up shadowing Chase. More importantly, the Bills have surrendered 15 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season, the sixth-most in the NFL. Furthermore, they have given up three receiving touchdowns to the position over the past two weeks, the fifth-most in the league during that span. Higgins should find the end zone at least once in this contest.
Devin Singletary Under 45.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Before the start of the 2022 season, many believed Buffalo’s one weakness was their running game. Yet, Singletary has played well this season, averaging 52.7 rushing yards per game. The veteran running back had a season-high 106 rushing yards last week against the Bears. However, 13.4% of his rushing yards came last week against a poor Chicago run defense. Before last week’s matchup, Singletary averaged only 48.9 rushing yards per game this season. He has rushed for under 50 yards in 60% of the games this year, including two straight before last week.
Meanwhile, the Bengals have held running backs to only 1,201 rushing yards this season, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. However, they have completely shut down running backs lately. Over the past three weeks, Cincinnati has held Rhamondre Stevenson, Leonard Fournette, and Nick Chubb to only 36 rushing yards per game. All three running backs ended their matchup with under 45 rushing yards. Furthermore, running backs have averaged only 65.2 rushing yards per game against the Bengals over their past five contests. Between the tough matchup and the emergence of James Cook, expect Singletary to have a quiet performance against the Bengals.
Joe Mixon Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
A few days ago, Mixon had some words for the Bills, reminding them that the Bengals were the reigning AFC champions. Now it’s time for the star running back to walk the walk after his comments. Mixon has played well this season, averaging 60.5 rushing yards per game. Furthermore, the star running back has averaged 63.9 rushing yards per game in the 12 healthy contests in that he played at least 25% of the snaps. More importantly, Mixon has totaled at least 57 rushing yards in 66.7% of those healthy games this season, including three of the past four contests. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s run defense has struggled lately.
Over the first six games of the year, the Bills held running backs to only 52.8 rushing yards per game. They gave up over 47 rushing yards only twice during that span. However, Buffalo has been awful since their Week 7 bye. Over the past nine games, they have surrendered 110 rushing yards per game to running backs, giving up at least 51 yards every game. Furthermore, the Bills have given up over 130 rushing yards to running backs in four of those nine contests, including 136 yards two weeks ago to Raheem Mostert. Mixon might not have 100 yards in this game, but he should total at least 60 rushing yards.
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