Monday Night Football NFL Player Props: Bills vs. Jets
Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets. Week 6 of the 2024 NFL regular season is nearly in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.
NFL Player Props – Monday Night Football, Bills vs Jets
Monday night, we have a matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Monday’s game.
All props and odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Breece Hall Over 3.5 Receptions (-130)
Hall has struggled the past two weeks after starting the season on fire. The superstar running back had four or more receptions in the first three games. Unfortunately, he has five total receptions in the past two weeks. Yet, Hall has averaged 4.2 receptions per game this year after averaging 4.5 in 2023. More importantly, the former Iowa State star is prime for a bounce-back performance Monday night because of the matchup.
The Bills have had no answer for running backs in the passing game. They have surrendered the most receptions (7.2) and targets (8.4) per game in the NFL to running backs over the first five weeks. Buffalo has allowed running backs to have at least four receptions in every game, including eight or more in 60% of their contests. Furthermore, the Bills have surrendered, at least, the fifth-most receptions to running backs in three of the first five weeks.
James Cook Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Buffalo’s passing attack has struggled the past few weeks. Therefore, expect the team to lean on their star running back. Cook has averaged 61.8 rushing yards per game this season. However, he has averaged 67.5 rushing yards per game in the four contests with double-digit attempts, totaling 71 or more in three matchups. Last week, the former Georgia star had a season-high 82 rushing yards against a talented Houston Texans defense.
Thankfully, Cook’s matchup on Monday night is far more appealing. The Jets have had an inconsistent run defense all year. They have surrendered 96 rushing yards per game to running backs, giving up 71 or more in all but one contest, including back-to-back matchups. Furthermore, New York has surrendered 123 or more rushing yards to running backs in nearly half of their games. Cook averaged 59.5 rushing yards against the Jets last season.
Breece Hall Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
If I like Hall over 3.5 receptions, you know I’m backing him to have over 24.5 receiving yards. The superstar has averaged 29.6 receiving yards per game in 2024 despite the two-week slump. He started the year on fire, averaging 5.3 receptions on 6.3 targets for 40 receiving yards per game, totaling 29 or more in the first three contests. While he has struggled in back-to-back games, Hall will bounce back Monday night.
The superstar running back should have a massive role in the passing game because of the matchup against the Bills. Buffalo has surrendered the most receiving yards to running backs over the first five weeks, giving up 62.4 per game. They have allowed running backs to total 62 or more receiving yards in all but one game this year. The Bills have surrendered the most receiving yards to running backs in two of the first five weeks.
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James Cook Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Unfortunately, the Bills’ passing game has struggled the past few weeks with Khalil Shakir out of the lineup. While he is questionable for Monday night with an ankle injury, bettors shouldn’t expect him to play. Therefore, the passing attack should lean on Cook, especially in the short area part of the field. The third-year pro has averaged 24.6 receiving yards per game this season, totaling 17 or more in all but one contest.
Last year, Cook averaged 23 receiving yards per game against the Jets, totaling 17 or more in both matchups. More importantly, New York has surrendered 30 receiving yards per game to running backs this season. They have given up at least 44 receiving yards to running backs in 60% of their games. The Jets have the third-highest target per route run rate (28%) to backfield players over the first five weeks (per Fantasy Points Data).
Allen Lazard Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
New offensive play-caller Todd Downing has promised that the Jets will run the ball more. However, this is still Aaron Rodgers’ team, so expect him to lean on his go-to guys when they throw the ball. Notably, Lazard has a 20.8% first-read target share, the second-highest on the team. The veteran wide receiver has averaged 48 receiving yards per contest, totaling 34 or more in all but one game.
More importantly, Lazard has run half of his routes from the slot this season, averaging 26.6 receiving yards per game out of the slot. Meanwhile, the Bills have surrendered the 10th-highest target per route run rate (24%) and the 12th-most receiving yards per game (81.4) to slot receivers this year. The veteran wide receiver has a 23.4% first-read target share from the slot. Expect Rodgers to lean on Lazard on Monday night.
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