Monday Night Football NFL Player Props: Saints vs. Chiefs
Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets. Week 5 of the 2024 NFL regular season wraps up tonight on Monday Night Football. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.
NFL Player Props – Monday Night Football, Saints vs Chiefs
Monday night, we have a matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the Kansas City Chiefs. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for the Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup.
All props and odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-135)
Many thought Mahomes could have his second career 50-passing touchdown season in 2024 after the Chiefs made several additions to his receiving core. Unfortunately, Marquise Brown will miss the year because of a shoulder injury. More importantly, Rashee Rice will miss at least four games after suffering a knee injury last week. Mahomes will have one of the worst receiving cores of his career heading into Monday Night Football in Week 5.
Meanwhile, New Orleans has had arguably the top pass defense in the NFL over the first month. They are the only team in the league to surrender fewer than two passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, giving up only one on 146 attempts. More importantly, the Saints have been outstanding despite facing Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, and Kirk Cousins over the past three weeks, giving up only a 0.9% touchdown rate.
Alvin Kamara Under 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Kamara has played well to start the year, averaging 90.5 rushing yards per game. The veteran has had 77 or more rushing yards in every contest. However, he has had an easy early-season schedule. The Saints have faced four teams ranking in the top half of the NFL in rushing yards per game surrendered to running backs, including two top-seven teams. Kamara’s first four opponents have surrendered 110.5 rushing yards per game to running backs over the first month combined.
Unfortunately, the veteran could be without multiple starting offensive linemen Monday night against an elite Kansas City defensive line. More importantly, he will be at less than 100% because of rib and hip injuries. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have surrendered the second-fewest rushing yards per game to running backs (57), giving up 65 or fewer in every contest. Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, and J.K. Dobbins averaged 36.3 yards per game and 2.5 yards per attempt combined against Kansas City.
Kareem Hunt Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Chiefs lost Isiah Pacheco to a fractured fibular in Week 2. Kansas City quickly signed Hunt the following week, with him making his season debut in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Chargers. The veteran running back averaged 27.4 rushing yards per game and three yards per attempt last year with the Cleveland Browns, never totaling more than 55 yards or posting a 4.1 or higher yards per attempt average in any contest.
However, Hunt had 69 rushing last week, averaging 4.9 yards per attempt against a talented Chargers run defense. Meanwhile, the Saints have held running backs to 83.8 rushing yards per game this season. Yet, they’ve struggled when facing a capable rushing attack. New Orleans has given up 117.5 rushing yards per game to running backs over the past two weeks, the seventh-most in the NFL, surrendering 88 or more yards on 17 or fewer attempts in both matchups.
Chris Olave Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
While Derek Carr has cooled off after his hot start, Olave has been outstanding since Week 1. The star receiver has averaged 66.3 receiving yards per game this year, including 84.7 per contest over the past three weeks. He has had three consecutive games with at least 81 receiving yards despite averaging only 7.3 targets per contest, seeing six or fewer in two of those matchups. Olave has played well despite Rashid Shaheed’s breakout season.
Kansas City traded away star cornerback L’Jarius Snead in the offseason after he had a career year. Yet, the Chiefs still have one of the top defenses in the NFL. However, they have had issues with No. 1 wide receivers lately. Over the past two weeks, Drake London and Ladd McConkey each had 67 receiving yards. Last week, McConkey only needed five receptions and seven targets to total 67 receiving yards against the Chiefs.
Travis Kelce Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Kelce has had a rough start to the year, averaging 2.7 receptions on four targets for 23 receiving yards per game over the first three weeks, totaling no more than four receptions, five targets, or 34 yards in any contest. However, the veteran tight end turned back the clock against the Los Angeles Chargers, catching seven of his nine targets for 89 receiving yards after the Chiefs lost Rashee Rice to a knee injury.
Last year, Kelce showed up when needed during the playoffs, averaging 88.8 receiving yards per game. Meanwhile, the Saints have surrendered 71 receiving yards per game to tight ends since Week 1, despite Kyle Pitts totaling zero against them last week. Furthermore, they gave up 10 receptions for 170 receiving yards to Dallas Goedert in Week 3 when the Philadelphia Eagles were without A.J. Brown (hamstring) and lost DeVonta Smith in the game to a concussion.
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