Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets. Week 3 of the 2024 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with from betting on my NFL Player Props. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.
NFL Player Props – Monday Night Football, Commanders vs Bengals
Monday night, we have a matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the Detroit Lions. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Monday’s game.
All props and odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Gibbs had seven rushing attempts for 17 yards in the Week 2 matchup between these teams last year. However, he played only 48% of the snaps in his second career game. The dynamic runner went on to average 63 rushing yards per game as a rookie despite sharing the backfield workload. More importantly, Gibbs has averaged 69 rushing yards per game this season, totaling 83 or more in back-to-back contests.
The former Alabama star has the second-highest explosive run rate (10%) over the first three weeks (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, the Seahawks have allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate in the NFL (6.3%). Therefore, bettors should expect Gibbs to have a big run or two on Monday night. More importantly, Seattle has given up 100.7 rushing yards per game to running backs this season, including 81 to Rhamondre Stevenson and 96 to Antonio Gibson in Week 2.
DK Metcalf Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Unfortunately, Metcalf had an awful performance in Week 1 against the Denver Broncos and Patrick Surtain II, totaling three receptions on four targets for 29 receiving yards. However, he has been outstanding for the rest of the year. The star receiver has the sixth-most receiving yards in the NFL entering Week 4, averaging 87.3 per game. Furthermore, the former Ole Miss star has seen 104 or more receiving yards in back-to-back weeks.
More importantly, Metcalf has been Geno Smith’s favorite receiver, totaling 20 targets over the past two contests. The Lions have struggled to slow down opposing passing attacks, giving up the most receiving yards per game to wide receivers (203). Furthermore, Detroit has gotten obliterated by the opposing team’s highest-targeted receiver, giving up 110 receiving yards to Cooper Kupp, 117 to Chris Godwin, and 64 to Marvin Harrison Jr. this season.
David Montgomery to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-150)
Montgomery is the heart and soul of the Lions offense. The veteran had 13 rushing touchdowns in 13 healthy games (where he played at least 27% of the snaps) in 2023, finding the end zone at least once in 84.6% of the contests, including the Week 2 matchup against the Seahawks. More importantly, Montgomery has scored a rushing touchdown in every game this year. Detroit leans on their running game, especially near the goal line.
The Lions have the third-most rushing touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line (four) this season (per Fantasy Points Data). Montgomery has accounted for three of them, giving him the second-most in the NFL behind Kyren Williams (four). While Seattle has only given up two rushing touchdowns this season (Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 2 and Bo Nix in Week 1), they haven’t faced a rushing attack like the Lions. Montgomery will score at least once in Monday night’s contest.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
While DK Metcalf is the team’s top receiver, Smith-Njigba has played well this season, averaging 58.3 receiving yards per game, including 117 in Week 2. Last year, he had five receptions on six targets for 34 receiving yards against the Lions despite playing only 59% of the snaps in his second career game. Thankfully, Smith-Njigba has replaced Tyler Locket as Seattle’s No. 2 wide receiver, playing only six fewer snaps than Metcalf.
Furthermore, the second-year star has played 38 more snaps and ran 13 more routes than Lockett over the first three weeks. Meanwhile, the Lions have severely struggled against slot receivers. They have surrendered the second-most targets (44) and the third-most receiving yards per game (108) to slot receivers, giving up 91 or more in every contest (per Fantasy Points Data). Smith-Njigba has run a team-high 84.2% of his routes from the slot this year.
Sam LaPorta Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
LaPorta has had an awful start to the 2024 season, averaging 31.3 receiving yards per game. By comparison, the star tight end averaged 52.3 receiving yards per game last year, totaling five receptions on six targets for 63 yards against the Seahawks. However, LaPorta had 45 receiving yards in Week 1 and 36 last week before leaving the game early with an ankle injury. Thankfully, he is off the injury report and ready for Monday night’s matchup.
Meanwhile, Seattle has surrendered the fifth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends over the first three weeks (57.3), including 80 yards per game over the past two weeks. More importantly, the Seahawks play two-high safety coverage at the 13th-highest rate in the NFL (per Fantasy Points Data). LaPorta has been significantly better against this coverage than single-high, posting a 1.71 yards per route run average and a 14% target per route run rate (per Fantasy Points Data).
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