Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 11 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

This Monday night, we have a matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Monday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings.

Player Prop Bets

Joshua Dobbs to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+195)

The veteran quarterback has bounced around the league over the past four months. After spending the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, Dobbs got traded to the Arizona Cardinals and the Vikings. The former Tennessee star has used his legs regardless of where he has played. The veteran has the third-most rushing attempts (70) and rushing touchdowns (six) among quarterbacks this season. More importantly, he has had a rushing touchdown in over half the games this year, including three straight.

Dobbs has had more of a role around the goal line in Minnesota than in Arizona. He has accounted for 40% of the Vikings’ rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line over the past two weeks, a team-high. More importantly, the veteran has had at least seven rushing attempts and a touchdown in every game with Minnesota. The Bears haven’t given up a rushing touchdown to a quarterback this year. Yet, they gave up a league-high nine rushing scores to quarterbacks in 2022.

Ty Chandler Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

While Alexander Mattison remains the starting running back for the Vikings, Chandler has earned more touches over the past few weeks. The former North Carolina star had a limited role on offense with Cam Akers healthy. However, he has been productive in the passing game when given targets. Chandler has averaged 7.3 receiving yards per game this season, totaling nine or more in all but one of the games he saw a target. Furthermore, the second-year running back had four receptions for 37 receiving yards last week.

After getting embarrassed earlier in the year, the Broncos’ have played well defensively. However, the Broncos have struggled to contain running backs out of the backfield. According to Fantasy Points Data, they have the third-highest backfield target rate in the NFL (20.7%). More importantly, Denver has given up 440 receiving yards to running backs this season (44 per game), the fifth-most in the league entering Week 12. Chandler only needs one screen pass to hit the over on this prop bet.

D.J. Moore Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Chicago’s offense has been hit or miss this year. However, Moore has been outstanding. He has averaged 80.8 receiving yards per game this season, a career-high. Furthermore, the superstar has been even better with Justin Fields under center. In the four games that Tyson Bagent started, Moore averaged 52.8 receiving yards per game. By comparison, he has averaged 98.3 receiving yards per game in the seven matchups with Fields, totaling at least 96 yards in 57% of those contests.

Meanwhile, the Vikings have played well defensively after starting the year on a cold streak. However, they still have given up receiving yards to wide receivers. Minnesota has surrendered 1,880 receiving yards to wide receivers this season (170.9 per game), the seventh-most entering Week 12. More importantly, Moore has been the focal point of Chicago’s passing attack. According to Fantasy Points Data, the star receiver has a 39.9% receiving yards market share, 20.2% higher than anyone else on the team.

T.J. Hockenson Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Reportedly, Justin Jefferson won’t play in this game. Therefore, Viking fans and bettors will have to wait until Week 14 to see the superstar wide receiver on the field. However, that means Hockenson will be the focal point of the passing attack for at least one more game. Despite a disappointing performance last week, the veteran tight end has still averaged 66.9 receiving yards per game this year. He had at least 69 receiving yards in his previous four games, totaling 86 or more in all but one.

More importantly, Hockenson has been a go-to target for Joshua Dobbs. He has led the Vikings in target share (33.3%), receiving yards market share (35.6%), and yards per game (86) in the three games with the veteran quarterback (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, the Bears haven’t faced many teams that feature their tight ends. However, they did give up at least 69 receiving yards to Travis Kelce and Logan Thomas this season.

Danielle Hunter Over 0.75 Sacks (-125)

When the Vikings started the year with a 1-4 record, many expected them to be sellers at the trade deadline. One potential player on the move was Hunter. The star pass rusher is in the final year of his contract and wanted an extension this offseason. While he didn’t get an extension, Hunter has been outstanding for Minnesota’s defense. The star pass rusher has 12 sacks this season, the second-most in the NFL.

Not only has Hunter put up massive sack numbers, but he has done it every week. The veteran has recorded at least one sack in 81.8% of the games this year, including six of the past seven contests. Meanwhile, the Bears have one of the worst pass-blocking offensive lines in the NFL. According to Fantasy Points Data, they have the fourth-highest pressure rate allowed this season (40.1%). Don’t be surprised if Hunter has his first sack of the game before halftime.

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