Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Commanders Bengals
Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets. In this series, we break down Mike Fanelli’s five favorite player prop bets for the upcoming primetime NFL matchup of the week. Today, we have the Monday Night Football matchup between the Washington Commanders and the Cincinnati Bengals. This game kicks off at 8:15 PM, EST.
Week 2 of the 2024 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.
Player Prop Bets – Monday Night Football, Commanders vs Bengals
Monday night we have a matchup between rookie Jayden Daniels and the Commanders and Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Monday’s game.
All props and odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-155)
The Bengals find themselves in a familiar situation. They’ve started the season 0-2 for the second consecutive year, and Joe Burrow has struggled. The superstar had zero passing touchdowns in Week 1 but totaled two last week against the Kansas City Chiefs. Burrow has averaged 1.8 passing touchdowns per game in his career, totaling two or more in 61.1% of the contest. He is prime for a massive showing Monday night against the Commanders.
Washington has given up the most passing touchdowns over the first two weeks (six). Last year, the Commanders gave up 2.3 passing touchdowns per game, allowing two or more in 76.5% of the games and four or more in 23.5% of the contests. Don’t be surprised if Burrow takes this game personally after tearing his ACL in the previous matchup against Washington. More aggressive bettors should bet him to have four or more passing touchdowns at +1100.
Jayden Daniels Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)
Daniels is one of the more electric rushers in the NFL. His 26 rushing attempts over the first two weeks are the 22nd-most in the league and the most among quarterbacks. Furthermore, the rookie’s 26 rushing attempts are the second-most on the team behind Brian Robinson Jr. (29), accounting for 40% of the Commanders’ total. More importantly, Daniels’ rushing production has come on designed runs and quarterback scrambles.
According to PFF, the former LSU star has had 57.7% of his rushing attempts (7.5 per game) come from designed quarterback runs. Meanwhile, his 11 scrambles are the most in the NFL over the first two weeks. Meanwhile, the Bengals gave up the third-most rushing attempts to quarterbacks in 2023. Jacoby Brissett had seven rushing attempts against Cincinnati in Week 1, while Patrick Mahomes had four against them last week. Expect Daniels to rip apart the Bengals’ poor run defense.
Zack Moss Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
While Chase Brown might take over the backfield at some point this season, Moss has been the featured running back over the first two weeks. The veteran has never been a significant factor in the passing game. Yet, he has had at least 13 receiving yards in both games this year. Furthermore, Moss had run the fourth-most routes on the team (39), totaling more than Mike Gesicki (37).
More importantly, the veteran has run more routes (39 vs. 16) and had more targets (five vs. three) than Brown this season. Meanwhile, the Commanders gave up the fourth-most receiving yards per game to running backs in 2023 (42.2). They have continued their struggles this year, surrendering the eighth-most receiving yards to running backs over the first two weeks (44.5). Washington gave up 14 or more receiving yards to Rachaad White (75) and Bucky Irving (14) in their Week 1 loss.
Brian Robinson Jr. Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Robinson is quietly having a career season. He has 173 rushing yards over the first two weeks, the eighth-most in the NFL. The former Alabama star has averaged six yards per rushing attempt, including 7.8 against the New York Giants last week. He ranks ninth in missed tackle forced per rushing attempt (21%) and fifth in explosive run rate (10.3%) among running backs with at least 15 attempts over the first two weeks (per Fantasy Points Data).
Last week, Robinson destroyed the Giants, totaling 133 rushing yards on 17 attempts. Bettors should anticipate another massive performance on Monday night. The Bengals have the ninth-worst run stuff rate (36.8%) and the second-highest allowed missed tackle forced per rushing attempt average (23%) over the first two weeks (per Fantasy Points Data). Washington will likely try to protect their awful defense by leaning on their rushing attack.
Ja’Marr Chase Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Unfortunately, Chase has gotten off to a slow start after sitting out most of training camp with contract negotiations. He has only 10 receptions on 11 targets for 97 receiving yards and zero touchdowns over the first two weeks. The superstar wide receiver showed frustration with his role, target share, and the Bengals’ 0-2 start last week. Therefore, bettors shouldn’t be surprised if Chase has a massive performance in Week 3.
The superstar receiver couldn’t ask for a better matchup to heave a squeaky wheel performance. Washington has one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. They have surrendered the third-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers over the first two weeks (186.5), giving up 178 or more in both contests. Furthermore, Malik Nabers had 10 receptions for 127 receiving yards against the Commanders in Week 2. Bettors should expect a similar performance from Chase on Monday night.
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