Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Jets vs. 49ers
Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.
Week 1 of the 2024 NFL regular season is nearly in the books. Hopefully, bettors come away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business with today’s player prop bets.
Player Prop Bets – Monday Night Football
For Monday Night Football, we have a matchup between the New York Jets and the San Francisco 49ers. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite player prop bets for Monday night’s game.
All odds are from DraftKings as of 9/8/2024.
Aaron Rodgers Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-145)
We haven’t seen Rodgers on a field in almost a year. The future Hall of Famer hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since January 2023. While betting against one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history is often a bad decision, bettors have no idea what to expect from Rodgers coming off a torn Achilles at 40 years old. Furthermore, his last game with more than one passing touchdown came in November 2022.
Rodgers and the 49ers have a well-documented history. Unfortunately, the veteran hasn’t had the most success against his childhood favorite team. He had zero passing touchdowns on 29 attempts in his last matchup against San Francisco in the 2021 playoffs. More importantly, the 49ers gave up only 20 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks last season, the eighth-fewest in the NFL. They gave up one or fewer passing scores in 64.7% of their matchups last year.
Brock Purdy Under 236.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Mr. Irrelevant has been anything but irrelevant in his career. Purdy had a productive 2023 season, averaging 267.5 passing yards per game. He had 242 or more in 68.8% of the contests. However, Purdy struggled against elite and awful defenses. The former Iowa State star had only 125 passing yards against the Cleveland Browns and 230 against the Washington Commanders. More importantly, the 49ers’ offense likely won’t be firing on all cylinders.
San Francisco’s training camp was full of distractions and players holding out. Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk missed training camp due to contract negotiations. Furthermore, Christian McCaffrey barely partook in camp because of a calf injury. The 49ers plan to limit Aiyuk’s snaps in Week 1 after barely practicing over the past month. Meanwhile, the Jets held quarterbacks to only 187.2 passing yards per game last season, the third-fewest in the NFL.
Breece Hall Over 3.5 Receptions (-160)
The Jets offense has been a nightmare the past two years with Hall on the roster. Yet, the superstar running back has been one of the few bright spots. Last year, the former Iowa State star was the offense, accounting for 40.2% of the team’s touches. He had 76 receptions, the most among running backs. More importantly, Hall averaged 5.5 receptions per game once taken off the snaps count in Week 5.
Furthermore, he had four or more receptions in 69.2% of the games once off the snap count last season. Meanwhile, the 49ers have had a solid defense the past few years. However, they struggled to contain pass-catching running backs in 2023. San Francisco surrendered 90 receptions on 117 targets to running backs, giving up the fifth-most in the league in both categories. Unfortunately, they will be without star linebacker Dre Greenlaw for this game.
Jauan Jennings Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Anyone who watched the Super Bowl last year saw Jennings have the best game of his career. Despite using a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Ricky Pearsall, the 49ers signed Jennings to a contract extension in the offseason. The veteran isn’t a high-volume pass catcher, totaling one or fewer receptions in over half the games last season. However, he had 19 or more receiving yards in 53.9% of the contest in 2023.
Unfortunately, Pearsall won’t be available for this game after getting shot in a robbery. Meanwhile, Brandon Aiyuk will be on a snap count after missing all of training camp due to contract negotiations. The Jets have an outstanding secondary, especially at outside cornerback. Last year, opposing teams targeted New York’s slot defenses 33.9% of the time, the seventh-highest in the NFL (per Fantasy Points Data). Jennings could hit the over on this prop bet by halftime.
Garrett Wilson Over 5.5 Receptions (-140)
Wilson might be the most unlikely wide receiver in recent NFL history. He has had to catch every career pass from Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and other awful quarterbacks. Hopefully, Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy and fans will finally see what the former Ohio State star can do with a competent quarterback under center. Notably, Wilson has averaged 5.2 receptions on 9.3 targets per game in his career.
Furthermore, the third-year receiver has totaled six or more receptions in 44.1% of the contests in his career, including 47.1% in 2023. Meanwhile, the 49ers had a bend but didn’t break-type defense last season. They surrendered 13.9 receptions per game to wide receivers, the fifth-most in the NFL. Furthermore, cornerback Ambry Thomas will miss this game with a broken forearm. Expect Rodgers and Wilson to put their chemistry on display Monday night.
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