NBA Atlantic Division — Fantasy Basketball Outlook

Last offseason and in season, teams in the Atlantic Division acquired talent that would affect their squad’s future outlook and fantasy basketball output. The New York Knicks signed Jalen Brunson, but that didn’t only affect our view of Brunson and what he can provide. Forward Julius Randle saw a bounce-back year for the Knicks. Additionally, we also saw a shift in how the team may view RJ Barrett long-term. Team fit and how a player will provide for fantasy basketball purposes is important to understand when viewing off-season or in-season acquisitions.

Mikal Bridges absolutely ascended in fantasy value by becoming the Brooklyn Nets’ number-one option. Of course, both his and Cam Johnson’s opportunities came from the Kevin Durant trade and seeing an extension in role and responsibilities. The Philadelphia 76ers even saw young talent Tyrese Maxey continue his rise into being a dependable, efficient offensive player. In 2023, we’ve seen the Celtics take the big offseason swing by moving on from Marcus Smart and trading for Kristaps Porzingis. Joel Embiid and Jayson Tatum are the premier assets to own in this division. However, this division clearly has other possible top 50 contributors.

Let’s take a look at players from the Atlantic division who may rise up in fantasy value this season while realizing other player’s roles will have to change and diminish.

Boston Celtics

Projected Starting Lineup

G Derrick White

G Jaylen Brown

F Jayson Tatum

F Al Horford

C Kristaps Porzingis

Bench: Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams, Payton Pritchard, Oshae Brissett, Luke Kornet, Jordan Walsh

Breakout Candidates: Payton Pritchard

The Boston Celtics felt the need to provide one more top-scoring option in this team and acquired Kristaps Porzingis to get just that. Porzingis had a career year in 2022 by shooting 49.8% from the field and scoring a career-high 23.2 points per game on 27.2% offensive usage. Behind just Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma for the Wizards. Porzingis heads to a much-improved team and will likely be the team’s third offensive option, this time with Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. The acquisition takes some pressure off those two players on offense, but don’t expect the same level of usage from Porzingis.

Tatum is still the top player in this team and should return on his first-round value (6.0 average ADP). He provides solid rebounding numbers while being an ideal scoring option due to his high volume and quality three point numbers (3.2 made per game last season). Tatum also got to the free throw line a career-high 8.4 times per game last year, hitting them at an 85.4% clip. This translated into a career-high points per game average of 30.1, a number that we can expect to come down slightly.

Derrick White started 70 games for the Celtics in 2022-2023 and should now be expected to take on more offensive initiation and distribution responsibilities. White offers a bit of defense which should be good for fantasy basketball managers. However, this team will struggle on defense outside of Al Horford and Robert Williams. They will be expecting a leap from point guard Payton Pritchard as well from the bench, mainly due to this team’s lack of depth. Pritchard can offer some passing and shooting, but that’s what they’ll expect from Malcolm Brogdon in the second unit. Maybe Brogdon sees minutes as the second guard, but behind Jaylen Brown that role is minimal.

Overall, this team has an odd structure heading into the season, but White should give managers top 90 value, and we should expect top 50 value from Porzingis, Brown, and Tatum. The other reserves may struggle to break top 200 value, but maybe Brogdon sees the majority of reserve guard minutes and provides in multiple areas.

Brooklyn Nets

Projected Starting Lineup

G Spencer Dinwiddie

G Ben Simmons

F Mikal Bridges

F Cameron Johnson

C Nicolas Claxton

Bench: Lonnie Walker, Cam Thomas, Royce O’Neale, Dorian Finney-Smith, Day’ron Sharpe, Dennis Smith Jr.

Breakout Candidates: Cam Thomas, Day’Ron Sharpe, Noah Clowney, Jalen Wilson

Mikal Bridges came over to the Nets in the Kevin Durant trade and started to prove himself by outplaying his contract. In 27 starts for the Nets, Bridges scored an average of 26.1 points per game while providing 2.5 three-pointers a night. He shot a terrific 47.6% on 18.6 attempts field goal attempts and may be expected to see his post-All Star break usage of 29.6% rise in 2023-2024. The Nets had a solid draft building for the future, and they made a smart backcourt addition in Lonnie Walker.

Essentially, the team showed it’s happy with what they have and is willing to focus on the Bridges, Cameron Johnson, and Nicolas Claxton frontcourt. Johnson is a solid shooting forward who provides solid counting numbers in rebounds. However, he will need to continue hitting threes and scoring in a larger offensive role for these Nets.

Johnson made 2.3 threes per game for the Nets at a 37.2% clip, showing he is capable of scoring and hopefully, that returns top 100 value this season. He provides in a few areas for fantasy categories, likely being a more valuable asset in those leagues versus points league, unless he takes on a currently unforeseen offensive role. With Spencer Dinwiddie, Ben Simmons, and Bridges initiating offense to different degrees, it’s hard to expect Johnson to become a top asset this season.

Young players like Cam Thomas or Jalen Wilson may show enough talent to make managers hopeful they can find depth minutes. However, a lot of this team’s rotation feels hashed out at this time. Expect Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O’Neale to get minutes as well, but don’t expect them to return much more than top 200 fantasy value, if that.

New York Knicks

Projected Starting Lineup

G Jalen Brunson

G RJ Barrett

F Quentin Grimes

F Julius Randle

C Mitchell Robinson

Bench: Josh Hart, Isaiah Hartenstein, Donte DiVincenzo, Immanuel Quickley, Jericho Sims

Breakout Candidates: Quentin Grimes, Immanuel Quickley

The New York Knicks made a big splash last offseason by signing Jalen Brunson. That acquisition and its importance to this team’s fantasy layout over the next few years can’t be overstated. Brunson proved to be a scoring-efficient player who can be a team’s number-one option, providing 24.0 points per game on 49.1% from the field. He would provide 2.0 threes per game on 4.7 attempts, good for a career-high 41.7% from behind the arc. Additionally, he should provide for fantasy managers again in 2023 and do enough for him and Randle to once again be top 50 assets.

Two young names ready to break out on a national level are Immanuel Quickley and former Houston Cougar Quentin Grimes. These players both stepped into bigger roles last season and did so with shooting efficiency as well as defensive steadiness. Quickley provides ball handling and security, only averaging 1.2 turnovers in a 29-minute role last season. Additionally, he took a respectable amount of shots per game at 11.6, while hitting 2.1 threes per game at a 37% clip. He had a career-high in points per game as well, but more importantly, shows the ability to come off the bench and affect the box score for fantasy.

Grimes is a defensive dynamo who has been improving his shot and seems likely to see a growing offensive role in this team’s starting five. RJ Barrett feels like the odd man out for fantasy purposes, as his skillset doesn’t fit greatly compared to Grimes and Quickley in their respective units. Barrett unfortunately doesn’t offer much outside of shooting and may need a trade to resuscitate some value. The signing of Donte DiVincenzo doesn’t bode well for his future as a Knick either.

Philadelphia 76ers

Projected Starting  Lineup

G Tyrese Maxey

G James Harden

F PJ Tucker

F Tobias Harris

C Joel Embiid

Bench: Paul Reed, Patrick Beverley, Danuel House Jr., Jaden Springer, Furkan Korkmaz, De’Anthony Melton, Mo Bamba, Dewayne Dedmon, Terquavion Smith

Breakout Candidates: Jaden Springer, De’Anthony Melton

Tyrese Maxey and the reigning MVP Joel Embiid will hopefully be joined by guard James Harden by the beginning of training camp, if not the season’s start. They will have limited options to improve on the trade market if they must move on from Harden, and that could greatly affect Maxey’s ascension and of course, the team’s title hopes. Embiid will be the least likely to see a production dip, as he’ll be even more heavily relied on. Embiid should be a top fantasy option once again, but exactly what he provides will be affected by Harden’s presence.

A Harden trade would likely put the ball in Maxey’s and Embiid’s hands more. It would also open up the opportunity for De’Anthony Melton to join the starting lineup at guard. The team will look different and perhaps have a lower scoring ceiling with Maxey or Melton playing a lead ball-handling role. Maxey is a fantastic three point shooter, having shot 43.4% on 6.2 attempts per game from beyond the arc. He made 2.7 of those attempts per game. However, he averaged 3.5 assists last season.

Certainly, Maxey reaching anywhere near Harden’s 10.7 assists per game in 2022 would be unlikely. However, Maxey would clearly be asked to start providing more for his teammates. He can penetrate and has some passing skills, but extra responsibility in an unfamiliar area may affect his shooting efficiency and expectations of scoring. This team doesn’t have much quality depth either and may struggle to provide for managers in 2023, outside of Embiid of course.

Toronto Raptors

Projected Starting Lineup

G Denis Schroder

G Scottie Barnes

F OG Anunoby

F Pascal Siakam

C Jakob Poeltl

Bench: Gary Trent Jr., Chris Boucher, Thaddeus Young, Otto Porter Jr., Jalen McDaniels, Precious Achiuwa, Malachi Flynn, Javon Freeman-Liberty, Gradey Dick, Christian Koloko

Breakout Candidates: Gradey Dick, Scottie Barnes

If the Toronto Raptors do keep this 2023-2024 rotation heading into next Spring, that’d likely be on the heels of a positive season where healthy assets allow them to be a top-eight team. Scottie Barnes is a solid young asset who provides defensive stats while being just a very solid viable fantasy player, evidenced by his current average fifth-round ADP of 53.6 in redraft leagues. Managers can expect the defense, but more importantly to receive good field goal percentage plus sustainable rebounding and assist numbers. Barnes is a rising asset that managers in category leagues and points leagues should be able to use, especially with a likely increasing ball-handling role this upcoming season. Not to mention, his 20.5% offensive usage from 2022-2023 should see an increase this season.

Siakam has the potential to again be the top fantasy asset if he remains a Toronto Raptor. This is due to his all-around contributions while being an efficient leading scoring option for the team. OG Anunoby will provide defense and some defensive numbers, but if he’s moved would see his shots likely go down, which is a possibility with a trade. The message with this team is they are in a volatile position with a lot of their assets and not being nearly the most talented team in the division.

Furthermore, the team has players for the future in Scottie Barnes and first-round pick Gradey Dick. But, they may need to focus on a rebuild sooner than later. It could all change quickly, with players such as Gary Trent Jr. or Chris Boucher being moved on if things go south. That may open up more opportunities for Dick or Barnes to fill more minutes or see Koloko step into a larger frontcourt role. Either way, outside of Siakam, Barnes, and the hope for Poeltl to remain a top-15 center option, this team doesn’t offer much excitement for fantasy basketball.

Conclusion

After looking over this Atlantic Division, it’s clear that there are some shaky teams that could have huge fantasy fallout this upcoming year and for future years. Of course, if things stay positive and players grow, such as in the Celtics or New York Knicks situation, we may see multiple top 50 players coming out of this division. We’ll see if Bridges can have a repeat of his post-trade performance from last season, otherwise, the Nets may need to rethink their trajectory again.

The worst team is likely the Raptors for real basketball this season, but even they have talent that has been to the playoffs. For them, it’s all about having enough firepower. For fantasy basketball managers, it’s all about the star players solidifying themselves in larger roles while role players show growth to become playable from the waiver wire.

Keep an eye on this division and don’t be afraid to stash a De’Anthony Melton or Quentin Grimes. You never know when more shots or more offensive usage opportunities will come. These teams all will feel on the verge of their championship windows or in them. Finally, this means trades and harsh decisions with rotations will freeze out certain players or allow others to emerge.

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