NBA Best Bet of the Day – Heat vs. Raptors (2024)
A heavy 10-game slate comprises the NBA schedule on Sunday, giving prospective bettors with ample opportunity to cash in on various wagers with our NBA best bet of the day.
Let’s take a closer look at my favorite best bet between the Miami Heat (9-8) and Toronto Raptors (5-15) from Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
All NBA odds and lines are current as of Saturday, November 30, at 7:30 pm, and courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook.
Domenic Lunardo’s 2024 NBA Betting Record: 5-2-0 (+ 2.31 Units).
Bet Name: MIA Heat -4.5
Sportsbook: bet365
Odds: (-115)
Wager: 1 Unit
NBA Best Bet of the Day – Heat vs. Raptors
Our best bet for the matchup between Miami and Toronto is to back the Heat against the spread with a single-unit wager.
The total for this game is set at 221.5, with the Heat listed as 4.5-point road favorites. This indicates that professional oddsmakers and betting markets are predicting a relatively low-scoring matchup between two Eastern Conference foes, with Miami projected to emerge victorious.
After an inconsistent start to the 2024-25 NBA season, the Heat are beginning to hit their stride in a competitive Eastern Conference, winning six of their last nine games.
Under Head Coach Erik Spoelstra, Miami’s recent success can largely be attributed to the stellar play of Jimmy Butler and elite rim protector Bam Adebayo, who is fresh off a triple-double performance on Friday against Toronto in the NBA Cup.
Defensively, Miami continues to excel, ranking ninth in Defensive Efficiency (1.081) and Opponents’ Fastbreak Points Per Game (14.4), and fifth in Opponents’ Points Per Game (109.4). Their commitment to defense has been a critical factor in their success.
On the other side, the Raptors will be without guard/forward Gradey Dick, who remains sidelined with a left calf strain. Dick has been one of the NBA’s biggest surprises this season, averaging 18.1 points and 32.9 minutes per game in his sophomore campaign.
As a team, the Raptors have struggled offensively, as reflected in their advanced metrics. They rank 23rd in both Team Average Scoring Margin (-4.4) and Offensive Efficiency (1.076), 24th in True Shooting Percentage (109.8%), and dead last in Team Three-Point Rate (35.2%), according to NBA Team Rankings.
It’s also worth noting that, as 4.5-point road favorites and (-200) on the moneyline, the Heat have an implied win probability of 66.67%. This suggests Miami is expected to play with the lead, control the tempo, and manage the clock effectively.
Finally, this selection offers slight positive expected value (+EV), as the spread is listed at 5.5 at Betano Sportsbook. Once again, this highlights the importance of “shopping around” for the best value before betting markets adjust.
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