Welcome to our NCAA Tournament Cheat Sheet for March Madness 2024! As the excitement builds for college basketball’s most thrilling event, we’ve compiled all the essential information and insights you need to dominate your bracket. From expert analysis and predictions to key matchups and tournament trends, this cheat sheet will help you make informed decisions and stay ahead of the competition. Whether you’re a die-hard fan or a casual observer, join us as we dive into the madness of March and navigate the road to the championship!
NCAA Tournament Cheat Sheet For March Madness (2024)
This NCAA Tournament Guide gives an overview of each region and each first-round match-up, helping to give you a good general idea of the most probable outcomes, as well as hone in on the most likely upsets and Cinderella stories.
Most Likely To Win March Madness
UCONN is a massive favorite to make it back-to-back National Championships in 2024. While it’s certainly possible that another team can win, the Huskies will win this tournament such a high percentage of the time that I wouldn’t really want to bet on anyone else to win it.
Usually, you can make a pretty good argument for several teams to get hot at the right time to take it down, but it will take a monumental effort for someone to beat the UCONN Huskies in the tournament this year. Pick anyone else at your own risk.
East Overview (Regional Final Played in Boston)
UCONN and Auburn appear to be on a collision course at the top of the bracket in the Sweet 16, while the bottom half of the East looks to be a little more open for some craziness. I give Illinois the edge to be UCONN’s final opponent in the East, but Iowa State, BYU, and Drake all have a shot at it too.
Probable Game Outcomes
(1)UCONN vs (16)Stetson
The Connecticut Huskies are even better this year than they were last season, which is really impressive considering they steamrolled their way to the National Championship in 2023. They’ve got what very well could be the best offense and defense in college basketball this season, with incredible size, length, athleticism, championship experience, and depth.
They can play fast, they can play slow, they can win high-scoring games or ugly slug-fests. They pass extremely well and move without the ball, have shooters all over the floor, defend every inch of the floor, and play with maximum effort at all times.
UCONN has future NBA players coming off the bench, and sometimes barely getting minutes at all. This team is a cut above the rest of college basketball and has been all season, and it would be a big surprise if they didn’t make it to back-to-back titles in 2024. While the committee didn’t do them any favors by setting them up with one of the most difficult regions, it’s a very risky move to pick anyone else to advance from the East.
UCONN faces Stetson in round 1 in what will likely be a massive blowout. Stetson doesn’t have much size or strength inside, and they struggle to finish around the basket. They have some good shooters if they’re left wide open, but against UCONN’s defense, they will have a very difficult time getting shots off. They don’t have many ball-handlers or playmakers and in general lack the explosiveness to get by defenders to create openings. This one will probably get ugly fast, so this certainly isn’t the time to try to be a hero and pick a 16-seed to beat a 1.
(8)Florida Atlantic vs (9)Northwestern
Last year’s Cinderella is actually seeded one notch higher than their final four team from a year ago, but their draw isn’t nearly as friendly. Florida Atlantic returns nearly everyone from their magical run that almost saw them reach the final, but they’ll be challenged right away by a tough, scrappy, and very competitive Northwestern squad.
FAU is led by their guards, and although they’re all a little undersized, they’re very strong and don’t back down from anyone. Johnell Davis is an NBA-level player, but he doesn’t always impose himself. They play tough defense and have good chemistry and ball movement, but the reality is they just aren’t that talented offensively. Can they recapture the magic from last year’s tournament?
Northwestern is going to make that very difficult in round one. They’re a scrappy, competitive group with good shooters and passers, and while they aren’t a very big or athletic team, they do have tournament experience and they make their opponents work extremely hard on both ends of the floor. They’ve got a deadly closer in point guard Boo Buie, and while I think Northwestern is definitely the favorite to beat Florida Atlantic, the winner of this game will almost certainly be sent home by UCONN in round 2.
(5)San Diego St vs (12)UAB
San Diego State returns several players from the team that made the championship game last season, but they also lost a couple of key pieces that really hurt their chances of making a similar run this year. They’re still a tough, physical team with basically the same guards, but they lack the size, length, and rim defense they had last year with Nathan Mensah and Keshad Johnson.
Jaedon LeDee is a beast, but as their biggest player at only 6’7” the Aztecs are vulnerable to size inside. They’ve got great speed and move the ball well, but they aren’t a great shooting team. They’ve certainly got the heart of a champion and play as hard as anyone, but they lack the talent to make the same kind of impact they did last season.
The Aztecs will take on UAB, who snuck into the field by winning their conference tournament. UAB is led by Eric Gaines, a talented and supremely confident guard who can create shots for himself and always wants the ball in his hands with the game on the line. The Blazers have some good three-point shooters, but as a whole, they’re pretty mediocre. I give the slight edge to San Diego State in this match-up, but no matter who wins, they’ll be highly likely to lose to Auburn in the next round.
(4)Auburn vs (13)Yale
Despite winning college basketball’s best conference tournament (The SEC) in convincing fashion, Auburn was completely disrespected with a #4 seed in the same region as top overall seed UCONN.
Auburn is a tough defensive team with great size, speed, and athleticism. They’re extremely dangerous in a fast-paced game where they can get out in transition, but their half-court offense can struggle to score at times.
The Tigers are very physical and aggressive with great depth, so they often wear opponents down throughout the game. They can grind out ugly wins when their outside shooting goes cold, making them one of the toughest teams to beat in all of college basketball.
They’ll face Yale in round 1. Although Yale got very lucky to make it here, needing several late threes, some missed free throws by Brown, and a buzzer-beating floater to win their conference tournament by a point, they could present a difficult match-up for Auburn.
Yale hung tough against power programs Gonzaga and Kansas earlier this season, and while both those teams aren’t quite as good as they usually are, Yale still displayed the intelligent team play you’d expect from an Ivy League representative. The Bulldog roster is filled with good cutters, passers, and shooters, and they fight hard and make their opponents work for everything. While I think it’s unlikely that they upset Auburn, if they were to pull it off they just might be able to beat either San Diego State or UAB as well.
(3)Illinois vs (14)Morehead State
This Illinois squad is an exceptional passing team. They’re strong and versatile and can score in a wide variety of ways. Terrence Shannon is an elite athlete who can take over a game, and he’s probably the most dangerous player in transition in college basketball when he’s attacking the rim.
Marcus Domask is crafty and creative with the ball in his hands. He’s capable of driving to the rim, posting up smaller defenders, knocking down shots from the perimeter, or threading the needle with pin-point passes to his teammates. He’s one of the most underrated players in college basketball.
Illinois is a tough competitive team, but they’re vulnerable against size inside, and they don’t have great depth. They aren’t as long as some of the other top teams and don’t really have a rim defender, but they shouldn’t have a problem defeating Morehead State in the first round.
Morehead State started fast in their conference championship game and held off top-seed Little Rock. Their star Riley Minix is a talented player, not overly big or athletic but crafty with a nice touch and great footwork.
Morehead St has been good defensively, getting in the passing lanes and guarding the basket well as a team, but they’ve been playing against lesser competition and Illinois is a much faster and more athletic opponent than they’re used to. The Eagles don’t have many shot-creators and do most of their damage with the pass, but they might have a tough time getting shots off as long as Illinois doesn’t over-help defensively.
Illinois should advance here, and while they have a chance to make it as far as the elite 8, they should at least get by Morehead State.
(6)BYU vs (11)Duquesne
BYU is a really good offensive team. They’ve got great passers and shooters all over the floor, but their lack of elite athleticism can be a problem against the best teams. They’re tough and physical and won’t ever back down, but rebounding can be an issue when they’re outmatched athletically.
Jaxon Robinson is the one guy on the roster who has the NBA-level athleticism. He’ll likely need to have a spectacular tournament for the Cougars to make a deep run, but this is a scrappy bunch that is certainly capable of beating almost anyone. They’ll have a very interesting match-up with Duquesne in round 1.
Duquesne is led by its dynamic backcourt. Jimmy Clark III and Dae Dae Grant can both create shots for themselves and their teammates, and they’re surrounded by capable shooters all over the floor. They’ve got a decent size inside, so I’m looking for a tightly contested battle in this one. While I think BYU has the slight edge here and either team would have a tough time beating Illinois in the next round, both Duquesne and Brigham Young both have a small chance of a deep run as far as the elite 8, with BYU’s chances being significantly higher.
(7)Washington State vs (10)Drake
Washington State has had a great year. Two wins over Arizona and second place in the Pac-12, but are they ready to do anything in the NCAA tournament? I’m not so sure.
Jaylen Wells and Myles Rice are both probably future NBA players, but Wells doesn’t always impose himself as much as he’s capable of, and Rice is a freshman guard who’s never played on this stage before. They draw a difficult opponent in Drake, who carried themselves well in the tournament last year and are led by Tucker DeVries, a great shooter with the size to get his shot off over smaller defenders. He consistently knocks down tough shots, and he can score in a wide variety of ways, both inside and outside.
DeVries is surrounded by several other good 3-point shooters and a strong big man named Darnell Brodie inside. Drake moves the ball extremely well, and despite being a mostly below-the-rim team, they’ve gotten the kind of draw that gives them a chance to make a deep run. I give them a slight edge against Washington State, and while I’m not going to say I expect them to go past the second round, it wouldn’t totally shock me to see them go as far as the elite 8.
(2)Iowa State vs (15)South Dakota State
Iowa State plays great defense and has one of the best young coaches in the country. They’re tough and competitive and are a very good passing team, but they can struggle to score at times. They’ve got good size, multiple ball-handlers, playmakers, and shooters, and they always play with great effort and intensity on both ends of the floor.
Their demolition of Houston in the Big 12 championship was really impressive. Despite not being overly athletic, they dominated what used to be the #1 ranked team in the country in a way no one really thought possible and showed that they’re certainly capable of a deep run in this tournament.
Iowa State will face a 15th-seeded South Dakota State team that passes and shoots extremely well. They’re a little undersized and not very athletic, but they’ve got great skill and could certainly put a scare into the Cyclones if they get hot from the outside. I don’t expect the Jackrabbits to pull the upset, but crazier things have happened.
West Overview (Regional Final Played in Los Angeles)
UNC is definitely the favorite to come out of the West, but several other teams have a chance to knock them off in L.A.
Arizona, Baylor, New Mexico, and Clemson all have a shot to advance in the bottom half of this region, while several teams could give the Tar Heels trouble on the top. Mississippi State is the most likely team to beat Carolina before the regional final. However, I still think UNC making it to the final 4 in Arizona is the most likely outcome here.
Probable Game Outcomes
(1)UNC vs (16)Wagner
At their best, Carolina has one of the best offenses and defenses in the country. At their worst, they can get sloppy with lots of defensive lapses, leaving themselves vulnerable against even less-than-average opponents.
UNC has great size, speed, length, athleticism, and depth. They’ve got many different shooters and scorers on the perimeter, to go along with strong post options down low.
RJ Davis has been incredible all season long and knocks down big shots when the Heels need it most. Freshman Elliott Cadeau’s great passing and tough defense set the tone for this team, and Harrison Ingram’s energy, rebounding, and pure joy for the game helped keep the effort level high.
The Tar Heels have tournament experience from their run to the title game two years ago, and a guy who played a big role in that game might be the deciding factor again this year. Armando Bacot can be one of the most dominant big men in college basketball when he decides to play strong and aggressively, and Carolina will need him to be at his best if they want to cut down the nets this season.
The Tar Heels got a huge break with a very favorable draw, and although they could face tough challenges in the 2nd round with Mississippi St or 3rd round with Alabama, they couldn’t ask for a better opportunity to get back to the final 4. They’re extremely likely to get out of the West Region, where they’d probably lose to UCONN in Arizona.
The Tar Heels take on Wagner, who got by Howard in the first four. As the #6 seed in the NEC with a 7-9 conference record, Wagner is lucky to be here. They knocked off the top 3 seeds in their conference tournament to do it, all on the road, but with their tremendous size and athleticism deficit against UNC, their magical run is likely to end here.
(8)Mississippi State vs (9)Michigan State
Mississippi State is super athletic. They’ve got great size, and length, and play a tough, aggressive style that’s difficult to deal with. When they’re on their game they can beat anyone, as seen in their blowout win over Tennessee a few days ago.
Freshman Josh Hubbard is a star, and he’s got the confidence to take and make the big shots with the game on the line. The Bulldogs can be very sloppy at times with lots of mental lapses, and they’ve been blown out on several occasions this season, but their speed, quickness, and elite athleticism can cause problems for even the very best teams in the country.
The Bulldogs can go cold and really struggle to score at times, but if they’re knocking down shots and finishing around the basket, watch out. They’ll face Michigan St in the first round, a team that’s had a very disappointing season and probably doesn’t really deserve to be here. The Spartans have really good guards, but they’re small and they don’t get a whole lot of help from their bigs down low.
That said, Coach Tom Izzo has been somewhat of a miracle-worker in the NCAA Tournament over the course of his career. He’s often found a way to get his team playing its best when it matters most. In the end, he’ll need to do that again for the Spartans to do any damage this season.
Furthermore, Malik Hall is the key to this team. They’re tough to beat when he comes to play, but too often he plays passively and is nearly invisible. Michigan State has to have some guys other than Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard step up if they hope to advance in this tournament. However, with Coach Izzo’s stellar record of getting the most out of his teams in the NCAA Tournament. Personally, I wouldn’t put it past them to flip the switch.
(5)St. Mary’s vs (12)Grand Canyon
St. Mary’s won’t intimidate anyone when they step on the floor. They’re not super athletic, don’t have much length, and they just don’t look like a group that would be great at basketball. However, they’re an incredibly competitive bunch that always fights for everything, and they’re led by their guards Augustas Marciulionis and Aidan Mahaney.
They steamrolled through the West Coast Conference, slicing up opposing defenses with stellar passing and shooting. Mitchell Saxen is a very skilled big man with a great touch around the basket. While he’s not much of a rim defender, he’s an intelligent positional defender and anchor for their defense.
Their first-round tilt with Grand Canyon is one of the more intriguing match-ups of the opening round, as the contrast in styles should be fascinating to watch. Grand Canyon has great size, length, and athleticism. They’re a physical, aggressive group that likes to attack off the dribble, but they aren’t a great passing team so it looks like they’re often out of control.
If NCAA tournament legend and Coach Bryce Drew can get this team to take good shots without committing too many turnovers, Grand Canyon will have a great chance at the upset. Tyon Grant-Foster will be the best athlete on the floor, and his decision-making will be a huge factor in the outcome of this game. I give St. Mary’s a slight edge in this game, but it could definitely go either way. Regardless of who wins, I’d expect either team to fall in the next round to Alabama, but that’s no sure thing either.
(4)Alabama vs (13)Charleston
Alabama has great size, length, and athleticism. Their guards have been great all season, and the Crimson Tide have shot the 3-ball as well as anyone this year. Offensively they’re extremely dangerous. Sears and Estrada are great creators for themselves and their teammates, and they’ve got a full stable of shooters around them.
However, Alabama has really struggled defensively, and they don’t have a consistent low-post scoring threat. Grant Nelson and Nick Pringle will need to step up for Alabama to make a serious run, and they can’t afford to lose anyone else to injury.
This team struggled with injuries throughout the season, but it appears they’ll have all hands on deck for the tournament. This team certainly has a chance to make a run, and with the favorable draw they received they’ve got a good chance to reach the Sweet 16.
They’ll first have to get by Charleston, a really good shooting team that lacks the size, length, and athleticism to truly cause problems for Alabama. Alabama should be able to take care of business, but if their poor defense allows too many open threes they could be primed for an upset.
However, even a decent defensive performance should make it difficult for Charleston to get shots off, as the Crimson Tide’s superior physical gifts should be enough for them to advance.
(3)Baylor vs (14)Colgate
Baylor has elite size, length, and athleticism, and plays as hard as anyone. They’ve got a bunch of strong, physical defenders who can impose their will on the offensive side as well, but unfortunately, their outside shooting has been extremely inconsistent, and they have a propensity for getting sloppy and out of control with their ball-handling and passing. When their streaky shooting gets hot they look like a final four caliber team, but when they go cold the offense can look pretty bad.
Furthermore, Yves Missi is a great rim defender with his size and length. However, he’s got to be better on the offensive end if Baylor hopes to make a deep run. Jalen Bridges is a difficult match-up and has been playing great lately. Most importantly, he’ll have to dominate on both ends for this team to make some noise in the tournament.
They’ll face Colgate in round 1, a really good passing and shooting team that moves well without the ball and plays efficiently together. Colgate is very skilled and competitive, but they’re much smaller and far less athletic than Baylor, and they could have a very difficult time getting shots off and keeping Baylor off the boards. I expect Baylor to overwhelm Colgate athletically and move on to the next round, but after that, all possibilities are in play.
(6)Clemson vs (11)New Mexico
I’m really looking forward to this one. Clemson has been extremely competitive this year, winning at UNC and nearly winning at Duke. However, they’ve lost some head-scratching games as well, and the reality is they just aren’t that talented.
The Tigers are a tough, scrappy team, and their big man PJ Hall is a Tyler-Hansbrough-like player who brings relentless effort and energy every night. They’re not overly big or athletic, but they’ve got a few good shooters and always play hard. They’re certainly capable of beating most teams and will be a tough out, but they’re also a prime candidate for a first-round upset.
New Mexico has great guards that are sons of former NBA pros. Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. can light up the scoreboard in a hurry, and despite their smaller stature, they can attack the basket as well as knock down tough shots from the perimeter.
Nelly Junior Joseph is a big, strong presence inside, and if this team continues pushing the tempo and playing with great energy on both ends of the floor, they could knock off Clemson and maybe get a deep run going. All things considered, I give New Mexico the slight edge here.
(7)Dayton vs (10) Nevada
I admittedly saw these teams a little less than most others this season, but the reason is I wasn’t very impressed any of the times I saw them play. Dayton has been massively overrated all year long, seemingly always showing up in the top 25 polls when I wouldn’t have them ranked anywhere close.
Dayton’s big man DaRon Holmes is very skilled, but he’s been kind of soft this season. The Flyers are small and not very athletic overall, and they can often struggle to score.
Nevada has looked decent at times. Kenan Blackshear is one of the more talented players in college basketball, but he has the tendency to just coast through games. Nevada is pretty skilled with its passing and shooting, but they’ll have to be tougher and more physical defensively against the increased size, length, and athleticism they could run into in the NCAA tournament.
I don’t have much of a feel for this game, so I guess it’s truly a toss-up for me. No matter who ends up winning, they should be going home at the hands of Arizona in round 2.
(2)Arizona vs (15)Long Beach State
Arizona is one of the biggest, most athletic teams in the country. They’ve got scorers at every position and a deep bench that wears opponents down. Caleb Love and Keshad Johnson both have championship game experience, and Pelle Larson is doing all the little things to help this team win.
Despite their talent, Arizona has shown a propensity to have letdowns at times. They’ve fallen asleep with leads, and just plain failed to show up on the defensive end. As great as Caleb Love has been, he can sometimes struggle with shot selection and decision-making, so they’ll need him to be at his best if they hope to make a deep run this season.
Long Beach St has some great athletes, but they’re not a very skilled or talented team. Marcus Tsohonis can create shots for himself and his teammates, and he’s proven capable of taking over a game with a huge performance. They won at USC and at Michigan early in the season, and while those teams severely underachieved this year, “The Beach” still showed that they weren’t intimidated by the bigger more recognizable programs and had the confidence to go in and beat them on their home floor.
Unfortunately for them, Arizona is on a completely different level, and despite the Wildcats losing to Princeton in this very same position last season, it would be pretty shocking to see it happen again here.
South Overview (Regional Final Played in Dallas)
This region is wide open. Nearly everyone will have at least a small chance of advancing from this part of the bracket, but I give Kentucky a slight edge to represent the South in Arizona. Marquette and Florida are strong contenders on the bottom half of this region, but an argument can be made for picking almost anyone to advance.
Probable Game Outcomes
(1)Houston vs (16)Longwood
Sometimes I feel like Houston isn’t even that talented, but they’re pretty much always the toughest, most physical, hardest playing team on the floor, and that’s definitely a talent. Their 30-point loss in the Big 12 title game showed their vulnerability, but they’ve got an elite defense that guards without fouling too much, and their strength and physicality throw opponents off and are too much for most teams to handle.
Houston isn’t a great offensive team, but they’ve usually got enough shooting and play-making to outscore the opposition. LJ Cryer has provided a massive boost in the shooting department, and J’Wun Roberts has drastically improved his finishing around the basket. Houston’s competitiveness and will to win is obvious, and their aggression in every aspect of the game makes everything difficult for opposing teams.
Houston has been clutch in big moments all season, seemingly always making the big shot or defensive stop to win the game. They’ve got lots of big-time tournament experience on the roster, and it will take an extremely good performance for someone to knock them out this year.
However, they haven’t had to play any of the nation’s top teams out of conference, and in what I think will be looked back on as a down year in the Big 12, they could be much more vulnerable than their top seed and gaudy record suggests. They’ve drawn what I think is probably the toughest region overall, and I’d actually be a little surprised if they made it all the way to the final four.
seeds have broken through twice in recent years, and while I wouldn’t say it’s very likely, Longwood probably has the best chance to do it if it happens this year. The Lancers didn’t have a great season, finishing as the #5 seed at 6-10 in conference play, but something clicked late in the season and they started playing like a team that can cause problems for any opponent.
Longwood isn’t a big team, but they’re extremely strong and finish well around the rim. They’re tough and physical and play really good defense, but they’ll have to play their best game of the season if they have hopes of knocking off Houston. They’re a very good passing team and get high-percentage shots because of it, so if they can get hot shooting from the outside they might just have a shot at the biggest upset in the tournament. Picking a 16-seed to beat a 1 isn’t usually going to work out, but if you’re going to pick one this is the one to choose.
(8)Nebraska vs (9)Texas A&M
Nebraska isn’t the most athletic bunch, but they play great together and shoot the ball extremely well from the outside. They’re capable of beating anyone when they’re knocking down threes at a high rate, but they can be vulnerable against bigger, longer, more athletic teams. Unfortunately for the Cornhuskers, that’s exactly the kind of opponent they’ve drawn in round 1.
Texas A&M is quick, long, athletic, and aggressive. They struggled a bit earlier in the season, but they’ve found their groove lately with some big-time wins in a very difficult SEC conference.
Wade Taylor IV and Tyrece Radford form one of the better backcourts in college basketball, and they’re surrounded by phenomenal athletes who attack the rim with reckless abandon. They’re bringing the kind of effort, intensity, and physicality that gives them a chance to win against anybody, and not only do I look for them to get by Nebraska, I think they have a pretty good chance to make a much deeper run. A final four is not out of the question.
(5)Wisconsin vs (12)James Madison
The 5-12 matchups are often some of the most exciting ones of the tournament, and this one shouldn’t be any different.
Wisconsin looked like one of the nation’s best teams early in the season, went through a really bad stretch midway through the year, but now seems to have figured it out again. AJ Storr is an NBA wing, and he’s surrounded by a bunch of intelligent players who pass it well and can knock down shots. They aren’t the most athletic bunch and that limits them on both ends, but at their best, they’re capable of knocking off almost anyone.
This team is versatile offensively and plays with great energy and effort, and although they’re coming off a win against Purdue, they’ve drawn a difficult first-round match-up against James Madison.
The Dukes can hurt you in a variety of ways. They move the ball extremely well, shoot it accurately from a distance, and lock you down defensively.
Terrence Edwards Jr has pro size, length, and talent, but he’ll need to be more aggressive for this team to make a deep run. He can do it all as a passer, ball-handler, and finisher around the basket, and he’ll have to consistently look to attack and create plays for his teammates.
Xavier Brown is extremely confident, wants to take the big shots, and has the ability to create them for himself. This James Madison team won in a hostile environment at Michigan State earlier this season, so they’ve shown they can perform on the most difficult stages.
This game could go either way, and I fully expect it to be close. Both teams are capable of winning several games, and potentially even making a final four if everything breaks right.
(4)Duke vs (13)Vermont
Duke has one of the best groups of guards in college basketball, with three really good ball-handlers, shooters, and play-makers on the perimeter. They’ve also got one of the best big men in Kyle Filipowski, but their lack of depth, length, and rim defense down low could be the thing that prevents them from winning a championship this season.
Duke moves the ball extremely well and finds the open man. They’re not affected by difficult environments, and they’ve got several guys who can knock down clutch shots. Their lack of strength and depth could end up being an issue, but freshman Sean Stewart has flashed the ability to be what they need in this area. The injury to Caleb Foster was a big loss, but the Blue Devils should still have a chance to make a deep run in this wide-open South region.
Duke will face Vermont in round 1. The Catamounts have had a great season and come in riding a 10-game winning streak, but they’re pretty small and not very quick or athletic. They’ve got a balanced scoring attack and play good team defense, but they’ll have to shoot well from the perimeter to have any chance at an upset against Duke.
(3)Kentucky vs (14)Oakland
We all knew Kentucky had a great recruiting class, but for a large part of the season, they just weren’t playing very well. Things have now changed.
Kentucky’s offense is clicking on all cylinders, and they’ve got as much talent and depth as anyone. They have great size, length, and athleticism, and John Calipari will have one of the most important jobs during the tournament of deciding which players to have on the floor at any given time. If the right decisions are made this team could definitely end up in the final 4.
This Wildcats team is devastating in transition, and they’ve got the skill and shooting to outscore anyone. Their youth and inexperience have resulted in some poor decision-making and shot selection at times this season, but they appear to be figuring it out just in time for the postseason. Having a freshman like Reed Sheppard who plays like a veteran upperclassman really helps.
With a handful of future NBA players and several proven clutch players to finish off games, this Kentucky team is as dangerous as anyone other than UCONN this postseason. However, they were physically outplayed by a desperate, veteran Texas A&M club, which should serve as a warning that they won’t be able to get by on talent alone. They’ll have to be tougher on the defensive end if they hope to cut down the nets in Phoenix.
Oakland has several talented players and a couple of deadly shooters on the perimeter, but they don’t have many good ball-handlers and could struggle to deal with the overwhelming size, length, and athleticism of the Kentucky Wildcats.
Big man Chris Conway has a nice touch around the basket and plays good defense inside, while Trey Townsend does most of his damage around the basket, usually posting up smaller defenders. This isn’t going to work against a bigger team like Kentucky, and I just don’t think Oakland has the talent to entertain an upset here.
(6)Texas Tech vs (11)NC State
This looks to be one of the best games of the first round. Texas Tech was looking like a really good team before losing Devan Cambridge to a season-ending knee injury, and lately having to play without their best big man due to Warren Washington’s ongoing foot problems.
The injuries have allowed Chance McMillan to get more minutes like he should have been all along, but the loss of two of their longest and most impactful players is devastating. They’ll face a red-hot N.C. State team that just won 5 games in 5 days to win the ACC conference tournament.
N.C. State has the size, speed, and athleticism to play with anyone. They’ve got two DJs that can be a problem for opposing teams. DJ Horne is an aggressive and always super-confident combo guard who can get extremely hot, and DJ Burns is an extremely skilled big man with great size and strength inside.
However, they can get very sloppy at times, committing careless turnovers, taking terrible shots, and falling asleep defensively. They like to apply pressure on defense, but if they don’t force a quick turnover they often give up an easy basket.
If they can stay at their attacking best on both ends for an entire game they’re capable of pulling off big upsets, just like they did against Duke and Carolina last week. The emergence of Mohamed Diarra has been huge for them, as his NBA size, length, and athleticism has given them a dominant rebounder and rim defender who gets some easy baskets in the paint.
I’m leaning towards the Wolfpack in this one, and they certainly have the talent to keep going after that.
(7)Florida vs (10)Boise State/Colorado
Florida has great size, length, athleticism, and depth. They’re a very good passing team, and they’ve got shooters, ball-handlers, and shot-creators all over the floor. They’ve been underrated all year long, and that trend continues with the 7-seed they were given for this tournament.
Fortunately, I think they at least got a bit of a break with this first-round assignment. The Gators should have a substantial size and talent advantage against either Boise State or Colorado, and offensively Florida is as good as almost anyone in the nation.
However, the Gators have fallen asleep and blown a few substantial leads, as well as lost to some very below-average teams, so I do have some questions about their toughness and defense at times. Coach Todd Golden will have one of the most important jobs during this year’s NCAA Tournament, as it seems like if he can push the right buttons at the right time we could see this team in the final 4. With such a deep roster the decisions of who to have on the floor won’t be easy ones, but the recent loss of Micah Handlogten will take a little bit of the guesswork out.
Boise St doesn’t have much size, and they’re not very athletic either. They are a good passing team and shoot it pretty well from the perimeter, and they’ve shown that they’re not fazed by tough environments.
Colorado is a good passing team as well. They have a little more size and talent than Boise St., and a future NBA first-rounder in Cody Williams. However, Williams is a freshman and has seemed reluctant to take on a starring role, so KJ Simpson has consistently led this team so far this season. Colorado will need Williams to be more aggressive if they hope to make a deep run, but they should be able to get by Boise State to get a shot at Florida.
(2)Marquette vs (15)Western Kentucky
At full strength, Marquette has a great chance to make a deep run. Unfortunately, Tyler Kolek got injured late in the season just like he did last year, and if he’s out or less than 100% Marquette’s chances go down significantly.
The Golden Eagles are an extremely tough team with an aggressive, physical defense. They’re a great passing team with shooters all over the floor, and they play with maximum effort and intensity at all times. They’re strong and quick but not overly long or athletic. They were vulnerable to size earlier in the season, but the emergence of Ben Gold has rectified that.
Marquette is an intelligent group that never stops fighting, but if Kolek doesn’t return healthy their championship hopes go out the window. He’s their best playmaker and clutch performer, and without him they just don’t have the firepower. The effectiveness of Oso Ighodaro drops off tremendously with Kolek out of the lineup, as their chemistry in the pick and roll opens up options that just don’t present themselves without his precision passing and decision-making. They’re deep enough to win a few games without him, but their margin for error in each game becomes much smaller.
Marquette will take on Western Kentucky in round 1, a team with great speed, length, and athleticism that could pose a threat. Don McHenry can create shots for himself and his teammates, and the Hilltoppers have shown the ability to wreak havoc in the passing lanes on defense. However, they’ll need to get more from their bigs inside if they hope to hang with a very tough Marquette team, with or without Tyler Kolek.
Midwest Overview (Regional Final Played in Detroit)
The Midwest region has the best chance to produce this year’s “Cinderella.” Top-seed Purdue lost to a 16-seed last year, and while I don’t expect that to happen again, it does make them less intimidating. A bunch of teams will have a chance to win this region and make it to Arizona, and I’m looking at Oregon and McNeese as two double-digit seeds that could make the dream run. Tennessee is probably the safest bet, but I’ll likely look to shake my bracket up with something crazy happening in the Midwest.
Probable Game Outcomes
(1)Purdue vs (16)Montana State/Grambling
Zach Edey is the definition of a match-up nightmare. He’s the cheat code for this Boilermaker team, as he completely dwarfs every opponent and is an absolute monster inside. He gets a great position and finishes nearly everything around the basket, but he’s also a great passer who finds the open man when the defense collapses on him. He also knocks down his free throws, so constantly hacking him isn’t a great option either.
This Purdue team is tough, gritty, and one of the most competitive teams in the country. They move the ball extremely well and have good shooters all over the floor. Braden Smith has been clutch with the game on the line, and they’ve been tough to beat in even the most hostile environments.
However, the same vulnerabilities exist that led to their first-round loss to a #16 seed last season. They aren’t the most athletic group, and if Edey gets in foul trouble they all a sudden become a pretty average team. Their margin for error is much smaller than the other top teams, but they’re certainly capable of beating anyone when they play their best.
Montana State will play Grambling for the right to take on the Boilermakers, and I think the Bobcats would have a better shot to beat Purdue than Grambling would.
Despite being the 5-seed at 9-9 in their conference and 17-17 overall, Montana State actually looked pretty solid in winning their conference tournament. They aren’t very long, quick, or athletic, but they fight hard defensively and have multiple guys who can create shots and knock them down. If Robert Ford III can get hot and get some help from his teammates, Purdue could be in for a tough first-round test yet again.
Grambling could also spoil Montana State’s upset bid by knocking them out in their first four games. The Tigers are small but quick and decently athletic. This will be their first time in the tournament, but they play well together so maybe they can find some magic in their NCAA tournament debut.
(8)Utah State vs (9)TCU
Utah State is another Mountain West team I didn’t see quite enough of, but they didn’t look like anything special when I watched them so I kind of wrote them off pretty early. They ended up winning the league with their star player Great Osobor leading the way, but he got plenty of help from teammates Darius Brown II and Ian Martinez as well. Utah State isn’t very big or athletic, but they do play well together and shoot a good percentage from the field.
They’ll face a tough and physical TCU team in the first round, a strong and rugged group that plays great defense but often struggles to shoot from the perimeter. The Horned Frogs are dangerous when they can get out in transition and use their athleticism to attack the basket, but they can have a hard time scoring in the half-court. They also lack size and rim defense inside, so while they’re certainly capable of winning a couple of games, a cold-shooting night could result in a loss to Utah State in round 1.
(5)Gonzaga vs (12)McNeese
Gonzaga has been so good this century that it’s kind of shocking to see them struggle. However, they’ve been downright average this season. Their huge win over Kentucky a few weeks ago probably punched their ticket to the tournament, and while I’m still not really sure how they won that game, I don’t expect much from Gonzaga in this tournament.
The Zags have good size and skill inside, but they don’t have that alpha dog that refuses to let this team lose. Anton Watson is the most talented player, but he’s a reluctant star who prefers to be a complimentary piece that does all the dirty work. Unfortunately for Gonzaga, they need him to be more than that, as this year’s Bulldogs team lacks the supporting cast of years past. They don’t play good enough defense, they lack depth, and they’re definitely a candidate for an early exit.
McNeese is the perfect opponent to send the Zags home. They’re lightning quick and they play fast and aggressive, always looking to push the pace and find open shots in transition. Shahada Wells is a big-time scorer, and he’s led this team to a stellar 30-3 record and their current 11-game win streak.
This team lacks size inside, but they’ve got lots of ball-handlers, shot-creators, and deadly outside shooters, and they pass the ball extremely well to find the open man. They’re also tough defensively and play much bigger than their actual size, so I’m picking McNeese to shake up this tournament and pull off a few big upsets.
(4)Kansas vs (13)Samford
It just doesn’t seem like it’s gonna happen for Kansas this season. The Jayhawks can make a very convincing argument that they’ve been the best program in college basketball this century, and it’s a huge compliment to them that this will be considered a bad year, but for the first time in what feels like forever, they just don’t seem to have the talent or depth to make a deep run.
While injuries have certainly played a major role in their recent performance, even at full strength they just haven’t been that good this year. They’re starting lineup is solid and has lots of big-time tournament experience, but their poor outside shooting has made it difficult for them to win games.
Coach Bill Self is one of the best in the game and has gotten the maximum out of this roster, but the bottom line is they just aren’t that talented, and they’ll be without one of their best players in Kevin McCullar. They play extremely hard and are pretty good defensively, especially at home, but unfortunately for them, the NCAA Tournament won’t be held at Allen Fieldhouse.
As good as this program has been I’d never count them out from winning a couple of games, but it feels like a team that is more likely to limp out of the tournament early.
Will Samford be the team that puts the Jayhawks out of their misery this year? Maybe. Samford plays a unique trapping and pressing style that could cause the Jayhawks some problems, but it also could give Kansas a chance to pick it apart and get a lot of easy baskets. While they are quick and aggressive and play with great effort and intensity, their style doesn’t seem like the right strategy against this Kansas team.
Kansas has had trouble shooting from the perimeter this season, but if they’re allowed to continually get to the rim it could be a long night for Samford. The Bulldogs shoot the three well and have a very talented big man in Achor Achor down low, but they really aren’t that gifted offensively when it comes to creating shots in the half-court, so I have a feeling Bill Self will figure out a way to get the win in round 1.
(3)Creighton vs (14)Akron
Creighton nearly made the final four a year ago, and the core of that team is back and will be looking to improve on that effort this season. They’re a smart team with phenomenal ball movement, which results in high-percentage shots.
Ryan Kalkbrenner is one of the best big men in the country. He finishes nearly everything around the rim, runs the floor extremely well, and shoots it accurately from 3-point range, making him a match-up nightmare for almost every team in college basketball. He’s surrounded by great shooters and talented offensive players on the perimeter.
Trey Alexander has taken his game to the next level. He has a complete offensive game and is a proven clutch player with the game on the line. Baylor Scheierman is one of the best 3-point shooters in college basketball, and when everything is clicking this team can beat anyone.
However, they aren’t the deepest or most athletic bunch, so they have a hard time overcoming foul trouble or an off-night from 3-point range. They face an Akron team that doesn’t have too much to hurt them with. Zips big man Enrique Freeman has great length inside and has had a great season, but his slender frame could be a problem against the strength of Kalkbrenner.
Akron doesn’t do anything especially well, and I look for Creighton to advance to round 2. The schedule will get much tougher from there, but the Bluejays certainly have the shooting and experience to make a deep run.
(6)South Carolina vs (11)Oregon
South Carolina is a phenomenal defensive team, as tough and rugged as any team in the country. They’re lacking elite size and length inside, but their big man Murray-Boyles is extremely skilled and plays bigger than his size.
The guards are strong and aggressive and always bring physicality. The Gamecocks aren’t the biggest or most skilled team, but they play with great effort and intensity and never stop fighting. They’re very comfortable grinding out close games, so they’ll be tough to beat in a tournament where most games seem to come down to the wire.
Oregon appears to be peaking at the right time. Their guards are attacking and knocking down shots, and their big man N’Faly Dante is dominating with his size, strength, and intensity down low. Oregon has the length and toughness to cause problems for almost any opponent, and they’re moving the ball and playing solid defense as well. I give Oregon a slight edge here, but the winner of this game is certainly capable of winning more games and making a deep run.
(7)Texas vs (10)Colorado State
Texas has some great athletes, but they’re inconsistent offensively and can really struggle to score at times. Max Asmus lit up the NCAA tournament for Oral Roberts a couple of seasons ago, and he’ll look to do it again for Texas this time. He’ll need some scoring help if the Longhorns want to make a deep run.
Dylan Disu has the size, length, and skill set to dominate against any opponent, and he’ll have to have a big tournament for Texas to advance as well. They’ll face a Colorado State team that destroyed Virginia in the first four, and they did it without a big game from their star player Isaiah Stevens.
Virginia could only manage 42 points, something that has sadly become rather normal for them, but to Colorado State’s credit, they jumped on them early and never looked back. Texas will provide a much different challenge for the Rams, so Stevens will likely need to be much more involved offensively if they hope to pull off the upset.
(2)Tennessee vs (15)St. Peter’s
Tennessee has the best offensive player in college basketball and one of the nation’s best defenses. They’re extremely tough and physical, and they’ve handled themselves very well in difficult road environments.
The Volunteers have some decent shooters on the perimeter and always play with a fiery competitiveness that will keep them in any game against any opponent. However, their offense can struggle to score at times. Other than Knecht they don’t have a lot of other great offensive players, and there aren’t many other guys who consistently create shots for themselves or their teammates other than Zakai Zigler.
They don’t get much production from the bigs down low, although Jonas Aidoo has played really well and gotten a little lucky offensively this year. It just seems like the offense isn’t good enough to win the championship, and a cold-shooting night paired with a good one from their opponent could spell the end of a great season.
Can St. Peters duplicate their magical run from a couple of years ago and be the one to send the Volunteers home? I don’t think it’s likely, but it’s not impossible, and if I was determined to pick a 15-seed over a 2 then this would be the one I would pick.
St. Peter’s has great quickness and toughness. They have several good ball-handlers and shot-creators, solid outside shooting, and they always bring energy and effort. Mouhamed Sow is a long-athletic big that could cause problems for Tennessee, and Corey Washington is a long, athletic wing who could spark another Cinderella run for St. Peter’s. If the Peacocks were to knock off Tennessee, they’d have the potential to make it all the way to the final 4.
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