NFL Best Bets: Week 11

Thanksgiving week is approaching. Football, family, food, and more football and food. Hopefully, Uncle Hefin and Aunt Gwen don’t bother you too much. Thanksgiving is a glorious holiday and like Thanksgiving, we think our Week 11 Best Bets will be glorious as well. Let’s get to it with NFL Best Bets: Week 11.

Early Slate

Colts +7, Over 49

These teams played in last year’s divisional game with the Bills winning 27-24, similarly, we foresee a lot of back and forth here with the Colts keeping it close. The Colts have been playing quietly pretty well this year and I like them to give the Bills a good game here.

Panthers -3 (Buy the hook)

The Panthers are right in the playoff mix at 5-5 and have Cam Newton back to reenergize the team. Meanwhile, the WFT is coming off an emotional upset win against Tampa Bay. Look for Cam’s Energy combined with a letdown from the WFT to get the Panthers the win and the cover.

Bears +5 (+200 ML for the Bold) Over 44

Reports out of Vegas are that very large wagers are coming on the Bears spread and even the money line. Justin Fields has been playing better and better each week and the Bears have scored 49 points in their last two games. Lamar has been sick with something (non-Covid related) but most likely will be out there against Chicago. Expect there to be a lot of points and for Chicago to keep this one within the number.

Lions @ Browns Under 43 

Baker Mayfield is banged up, Tim Boyle is starting for the Lions and it’s going to be raining most of the game.  Dan Campbell also took over playcalling duties last week and proceeded to run the ball more than the 1937 Newark Penguins. If this game doesn’t go under, then call me Cindy.

Jaguars +6.5 (+240 ML for the bold)

The 49ers got back in the winning column last week with a solid win over the Rams on Monday night. Now it’s a short week and they travel across the coast to play the Jaguars who have played the Bills and the Colts tight, losing by just 9 points combined in those two games. Take the Jags and don’t be a Jag.

Vikings +1

This one is tough because I am going against my first instinct which was taking Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers has barely practiced the last two weeks and now is nursing a toe injury. The Vikings fit the model here and we expect them to get the win.

Eagles -2 *Best Bet of the Day*

The wiseguys have been on the Philly train for a while and hopefully, I’m not late to the party here. The Eagles have now covered in three straight games and Jalen Hurts has been a huge part of that, as he continues to progress as a quarterback. Look for Philly to take care of the Saints at home.

Late Slate

Bengals @ Raiders Over 50

While many will be playing Chiefs and Dallas players in their DFS lineups, you can pivot to this game where there should be fireworks as well. The Bengals have allowed 75 points combined in their last two games against the Jets and Browns and the Raiders just allowed 41 to the Chiefs.  Look for a 34-31 type final.

Cowboys @ Chiefs Over 56

Both of these teams put up over 40 points in their last game and this game has all the makings of a shootout. The Chiefs offense looks like they got their mojo back and despite their defense playing better in recent weeks, they have struggled with teams that can run the football. They allowed 29 points to the Browns, 36 to the Ravens, and 27 to the Titans. The Cowboys also allowed 30 points to Denver two weeks ago.

Seahawks -3

Russell Wilson was pretty awful in his first game back against Green Bay last week, as the Seahawks got shut out, losing 17-0. Look for Wilson and the Seahawks to bounce back this week at home against a Cardinals team that is banged up offensively.

[pickup_prop id=”15361″]

Monday Night Football

Giants +11

The Giants and Bucs played last year on a Monday night in November with the Giants losing 25-23. I see a similar result here with the Giants keeping this game close. The Giants will be mostly healthy on offense getting back Saquon Barkley and also tackle Andrew Thomas. They will be rocking the old school 80’s and early 90’s White Uniforms and helmets. Brady and the Bucs have lost two in a row, no way they will lose three in a row right? Or could they? Giants are +425 on the Moneyline. Fortune favors the bold.

Sleepers 

In fantasy football you need to think ahead, playing chess not checkers. If you have any waste on your roster you can cut or have an IR spot you can utilize you need to take advantage of that. That could mean picking up a backup running back or wide receiver just in case of an injury or grabbing a player that is returning from the IR in a few weeks. It could also mean grabbing a player who is buried on the depth chart, forgotten about, who may be getting an opportunity in the upcoming week(s). Don’t get stale, think outside the box and stay ahead of your opponents and the industry.  Here are some guys to grab ahead of Sunday’s games.

Trey Sermon

Trey Sermon is hardly a sleeper, and despite him being irrelevant for a while now, many owners are still holding. That is because Trey Sermon is like bitcoin and like bitcoin you simply Hodl. Elijah Mitchell is likely out this week so it will be Jeff Wilson for the majority of the work, but could we also see Trey Sermon? Will Kyle Shanahan take Sermon out of the basement and let him see daylight? The handling of Sermon has been strange, but we have seen Shanahan treat players like this before. If Sermon is out there in your league and you need RB help, give Sermon a shot.

Bryon Pringle

The Mecole Hardman era could be over in Kansas City as Pringle officially jumped him in playing time last week. Pringle took advantage finishing with four catches for 46 yards and a TD on five targets. Pringle may never be a thing, but he could be and for that, he deserves a look playing on this Chiefs roster.

Dwayne Eskridge

The talented Seattle rookie returned after a long absence last week and while he didn’t get much playing time, that could change this week. Certainly, he’s better than Freddie Swain. Eskridge could finish this year strong.

All the best this week, you can follow me on Twitter @FantasySavvy.

Premium Sports Betting Home

DFS Home

Sign up for BetUS today with the promo code FACEOFF and get a 125% match on your first deposit! Join here.

What is the Consistency Score?

Consistency Score Home

Consistency Score: Running Backs

Consistency Score: Wide Receivers

Consistency Score: Tight Ends

Consistency Score: DST

Revenge Game Tracker