NFL Best Bets: Week 3
Welcome to Week 3 of the 2021 Season. Week 2 started out sort of dull, with some weird, sluggish games, but the late slates finished strong and we got a spectacular Sunday night game with the Ravens beating the Chiefs. This week we have some intriguing matchups and I’ll target some of my favorite bets as well as player props. Check it all out here in NFL Best Bets: Week 3.
Early Games
Bears @ Browns Over 44.5
The Bears defense shocked me last week with a solid performance against the Bengals, picking off Joe Burrow on three consecutive drives, sacking him five times, and holding the Bengals to just 17 points. This week they will take on a much more formidable offensive line in Cleveland, who I expect to have their way with the Bears defense much like the Rams did when they scored 34 points. On the other side of the ball, the Browns defense has allowed 54 points through two games, including 21 points to the Texans. Tyrod Taylor was dealing against them before getting hurt and not playing the entire 2nd half. Justin Fields will take over for the injured Andy Dalton and while he may struggle in his debut, I expect him to move the offense and put up some points. I project a 27-20 final.
Saints @ Patriots Under 42.5
Jameis Winston got off to a great start against the Packers in Week 1 throwing for five touchdowns but turned back into a pumpkin last Sunday only putting up three points against the Panthers. He now goes on the road to take on Bill Belichick and the Patriots defense and I expect more struggles in this game. The Saints still boast one of the better offensive lines in football, but the lack of surrounding offensive talent outside Alvin Kamara is glaring. The New England defense has only allowed 24 points through two games and is definitely a legit defense. The Patriots offense isn’t a high-flying machine by any means, with them being run-oriented and Mac Jones taking what the defense is giving him. They are only averaging 21 points a game and the Saints are a quality defense. I expect a lot of Field Goals in this game, look for a 23-17 final.
Giants -3
Daniel Jones played one of the best games of his career last Thursday against Washington, using both his feet and his arm to move the ball. One of the keys was the Giants offensive line finally providing some adequate protection. Also, after 10 days off, Saquon Barkley is off the injury list and should be almost at a full go. The Falcons defense has allowed 80 points through two games and the Giants should have their way with them. I fully expect the Giants to get a win here.
Steelers -3
I was on Joe Burrow and the Bengals last week against the Bears and it was nothing short of a disaster as they ended up losing and scoring only 17 points. Despite a few injuries for the Steelers defense, this is still a much tougher test. TJ Watt practiced in a limited fashion Friday and he could definitely be out there on Sunday only making things worse for Burrow. Tee Higgins is also doubtful for the Bengals, further hurting this offense. Ben Roethlisberger is a bit banged up but is going to play through injury and I think they will do enough on offense to get the win here. After the Bengals let me down last week, against the Bears of all teams, I am fading them this week as they head into Heinz Field.
Cardinals -7.5
The Cardinals are going to be heavily bet on this week and it definitely feels chalky, but we arguably have the best quarterback in football right now going against one of the worst. Trevor Lawrence has been missing throws left and right and is already up to five interceptions on the season. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray is playing like he’s playing Madden on rookie mode, absolutely killing it with nine total touchdowns and 700 yards in two games. The Jaguars are just a mess right now and I can’t pass up Murray going against this team. The Cardinals should put up 30+ points in this game and win by double digits.
Late Games
Raiders -3.5
I think Jacoby Brissett will step in for the injured Tua Tagovailoa and play well. He’s smart, can escape pressure, and throw the ball accurately. Will Fuller returns from his suspension and personal leave to help out this offense. There is one key problem however and that is the Dolphins offensive line. They are a hot mess and are going to make changes this week to try and patch some holes. Coming against them is a Raiders pass rush that has been very good this year ranking 5th in pressures and 7th in adjusted sack rate. This is a mismatch worth backing. Derek Carr looks like he’s set for a career season and despite going against two tough Miami corners in Bryon Jones and Xavien Howard, he still is playing excellent and has multiple weapons to utilize. Give me Carr, Jon Gruden, and the Raiders defensive line at home in Las Vegas against the cross-country traveling Dolphins.
Sunday Night Football
Packers +3, Under 51
This total seems a little inflated here as I think the 49ers defense will slow down this Green Bay passing game with their strong cornerback play. I really like the way they covered against the Eagles last week, with their rookie corner from Oregon Deemodore Lenoir doing a great job slowing down Heisman winner DeVonta Smith. Jimmy Garoppolo still is underwhelming and I don’t see the 49ers putting up a lot of points against a fairly decent Packers defense. Both teams will try to run the ball which helps put this under. I need at least one underdog this week and I believe Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Robert Tonyan, and the Green Bay Packers should cover this one on Sunday night.
Monday Night Football
Under 52
The Dallas Cowboys defense is still underrated at this point with rookie Micah Parsons looking like a great pick and Trevon Diggs emerging as one of the best corners in the league. The Cowboys defense is young, athletic, and plays with a lot of speed. They just held Justin Herbert and the Chargers to 17 points, and they should be able to do similar facing the Eagles and Jalen Hurts. The Eagles defense has also been solid allowing just 23 points in two games. Give me another under here, that makes three for the week, exciting stuff.
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Consistency Score: Running Backs
Consistency Score: Wide Receivers
Consistency Score: Tight Ends
Consistency Score: DST
Player Props
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson Over 285.5 Passing Yards
Kyler Murray Over 280.5 Passing Yards
Daniel Jones Over 257.5 Passing Yards
Daniel Jones Over 1.5 Passing TD’s
Running Backs
Nick Chubb Over 78.5 Rushing Yards
Derrick Henry Over 102.5 Rushing Yards
Derrick Henry Over 12.5 Receiving Yards
Austin Ekeler Over 55.5 Rushing Yards
Saquon Barkley Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 54.5 Rushing Yards
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs Over 78.5 Receiving Yards
Terry McLaurin Over 71.5 Receiving Yards
Odell Beckham Over 49.5 Receiving Yards
Allen Robinson Over 56.5 Receiving Yards
Quintez Cephus Over 34.5 Receiving Yards
Austin Ekeler Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
Mike Williams Over 70.5 Receiving Yards
Sterling Shepard Over 61.5 Receiving Yards
Chase Claypool Over 63.5 Receiving Yards
Courtland Sutton Over 69.5 Receiving Yards
Tyler Lockett Over 74.5 Receiving Yards
DK Metcalf Over 75.5 Receiving Yards
Justin Jefferson Over 73.5 Receiving Yards
Zach Paschal Over 3 Receptions
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet Over 2 Receptions
Cole Kmet Over 21.5 Receiving Yards
Robert Tonyan Over 3 Receptions
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Sleepers of the Week
In fantasy football you need to think ahead, playing chess not checkers. If you have any waste on your roster you can cut or have an IR spot you can utilize you need to take advantage of that. That could mean picking up a backup running back or wide receiver just in case of an injury or grabbing a player that is returning from the IR in a few weeks. It could also mean grabbing a player who is buried on the depth chart, forgotten about, who may be getting an opportunity in the upcoming week(s). Don’t get stale, think outside the box and stay ahead of your opponents and the industry.
Demetric Felton, Browns, RB
Felton was a popular pickup this week, but he is still is available in some leagues. If Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt get hurt, Felton will have instant Flex value. This kid is talented, has good speed, and has great instincts as a runner.
Quez Watkins, Eagles, WR
Watkins’ talent is widely known, but he’s still available on most waiver wires. We saw the 91-yard connection between him and Hurts and the Eagles would be stupid not to utilize him more going forward. With his speed, he can be used in a multitude of ways.
Dwayne Eskridge, Seattle, WR
Eskridge is going to be out again this week with a concussion but he could be available in Week 4 and displace the current 3rd string wide receiver, Freddie Swain. We saw Swain catch a 60-yard touchdown from Russell Wilson and that could easily be Eskridge doing that sooner than later. It shouldn’t take much to replace Swain as Eskridge is the better talent and you want exposure in this Seattle offense.
Jaret Patterson, WFT, RB
Patterson hasn’t gotten his chance yet, but with an Antonio Gibson or JD McKissic injury, Patterson would step in and have instant Flex value. He’s a talented, unique player that can excel in both the passing and run game.
Amari Rodgers, WR, Green Bay
Rodgers is currently buried on the depth chart, but the players above him aren’t exactly world-beaters. Rodgers could assume a significant role in this offense at some point this season. The Rodgers to Rodgers connection could be a thing in 2021.
Thanks for reading, you can follow me on Twitter @FantasySavvy. Enjoy the games!
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