NFL Best Bets: Week 6

Last week was solid all-around between our picks, player props, and sleepers. Hopefully, you grabbed Kadarius Toney in your leagues, as he looks like he’s going to be a staple in the Giants offense the rest of the season. Let’s keep it rolling with NFL Best Bets: Week 6.

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Early Slate

Bears +6

This Bears defense is absolutely legit and still isn’t getting enough credit. Although Packers OC Nathaniel Hackett had this to say about the Bears defense: “This is probably one of the best defenses in the NFL, if not the best.” Big words, but the Bears’ defense is definitely impressive. That may not mean much for Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, who are seemingly unstoppable, but the Bears could contain them. Justin Fields should fare better in his third start and you have to think Allen Robinson is due for a breakout game, especially with Jaire Alexander out. I think the Bears are a live dog and there is even some value on the money line here. 

Texans @ Colts Over 43.5

This line seems really low. Carson Wentz and Davis Mills have both been playing capable enough to get this one past the total and neither defense is really respectable. Hopefully, the Colts feed Jonathan Taylor the rock as he could be in for a huge week. Neither of these teams’ defenses has been playing the best and both offenses have shown enough that they can put some points up.

Giants +8

The Giants were hanging with Dallas last week until their best offensive weapons started getting injured left and right, losing Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, and Kenny Golladay. The good news is, Jones returns this week as does Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton. Kadarius Toney has brought new juice to this offense. Look for the Giants to stay within the number at home in the Meadowlands.

Chiefs @ Football Team Over 54

This is the battle of underachieving defenses with the Chiefs allowing 32 points per game and the Football Team are allowing 31 per game. Neither team has stopped anyone. Obviously, the Chiefs have no issue putting up points averaging 31 per game, but Washington and Taylor Heinicke are also putting up a respectable 24 points per game. Sean Taylor’s jersey is going to be retired at halftime, expect an inspired effort from the WFT as this one will likely go back and forth in a shootout.

Vikings -2.5

Sam Darnold started hot the first three games, but now has thrown five interceptions in his last two, looking more like the quarterback when he was with the Jets. I expect some more struggles this week as Minnesota has a big advantage with their defensive line against the Carolina offensive line. Vikings defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen have been one of the best duos in the NFL this season and Darnold certainly doesn’t handle pressure well. The Vikings also get back a healthy Dalvin Cook, who I expect to have a huge day on the ground.

Chargers @ Ravens Over 51

With the way these two quarterbacks have been playing this season how can you not like this over? This is probably the square pick of the day, but hey, last week’s square pick with the Chargers won, so let’s keep it going.

Late Slate

Cowboys -3.5

Maybe this one is even more square but Dallas is simply playing way too well right now. I feel this spread should be more like six points. The Patriots play a lot of Cover 1 man defense and I don’t think that’s going to work against Dallas, especially Amari Cooper. I see him having a big day. I also expect Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard to run with no problem. No letdown game here, Dallas is laser-focused and should handle the Patriots who outside playing the tough Buccaneers defense two weeks ago, have really not impressed.

Sunday Night Football

Steelers -5

The Steelers got their footing back last week with a good win over Denver. Now they face a Seattle team without Russell Wilson, led by Geno Smith who filled in well last week but is a career backup for a reason. The Steelers defense is going to present problems for Smith as TJ Watt, Cameron Hayward, and Melvin Ingram are going to be bringing a lot of pressure. I don’t think Smith is up to the task. Roethlisberger and the running game led by Najee Harris should do enough on offense to cover this game.

Monday Night Football

Bills @ Titans Over 53.5

The Bills have defeated their last four opponents (Texans, Chiefs, Dolphins, and WFT) by an average of 29 points. I am tempted to take Buffalo here, but the Titans are getting back Julio Jones this week and will have all their offensive tools at their disposal. I can see this game being close with the Titans having a big night offensively. Rather than taking the Bills, I am going to take the over. The Titans defense is allowing 26 points per game and is simply not up to the task of stopping this Bills offense led by Josh Allen. I expect a lot of offensive fireworks in this game, the over seems like the best bet here.

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Player Props (Caesar’s Sportsbook)

Dolphins @ Jaguars (London 9:30 AM EST)

Myles Gaskin Over 24. Receiving Yards (-120)

James Robinson Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Vikings @ Panthers

Dalvin Cook Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Chiefs @ Football Team

Patrick Mahomes Over 310.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Taylor Heinicke Over 259.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Tyreek Hill Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Terry McLaurin Over 73.5 Receiving Yards  (-115)

J.D. McKissic Over 3.5 Receptions (+130)

Texans @ Colts

Davis Mills Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+180)

Jonathan Taylor 2+ TDs (+280)

Jonathan Taylor Rushing and Receiving Yards Over 99.5 (-115)

Cowboys @ Patriots

Amari Cooper Over 5.5 Receptions (+130)

Seahawks @ Steelers

Chase Claypool Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Bills @ Titans

Stefon Diggs Over 82.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Sleepers

In fantasy football you need to think ahead, playing chess not checkers. If you have any waste on your roster you can cut or have an IR spot you can utilize you need to take advantage of that. That could mean picking up a backup running back or wide receiver just in case of an injury or grabbing a player that is returning from the IR in a few weeks. It could also mean grabbing a player who is buried on the depth chart, forgotten about, who may be getting an opportunity in the upcoming week(s). Don’t get stale, think outside the box and stay ahead of your opponents and the industry.

Demetric Felton, RB/WR, Browns

We discussed Felton a few weeks back, but now is his time to shine with Nick Chubb out against the Cardinals. Kareem Hunt is also battling his own injuries so the Browns may opt to rely on Felton a bit more than we realize this week. Felton is a dynamic player with excellent awareness, juke ability and speed. He has a ton of upside.

DeeJay Dallas, RB, Seattle

Another player we’ve already discussed who could be getting a bigger role now with Chris Carson put on the IR is DeeJay Dallas. Dallas is Seattle’s most dynamic running back and could be utilized significantly in the passing game as the Seahawks will be playing from behind often. Not many people are thinking about Dallas, that may change after this week against Pittsburgh. While everyone fights over Alex Collins, stash Dallas for the cheap.

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns

The Browns have played three different tight ends this year with David Njoku, Harrison Bryant, and Austin Hooper, but Njoku is their most talented one getting most of the targets out of this group and leading the Browns in receiving yards. He’s still out there on waivers and he shouldn’t be.

Preston Williams, WR, Dolphins

Preston Williams has been basically forgotten about as he’s sitting on wires everywhere, but he’s likely to be Miami’s leading wide receiver as long as DeVante Parker and Will Fuller remain out of the lineup. Williams 6’5 frame is very quarterback-friendly and he is simply just too talented to be left as a free agent. He led the Dolphins in receiving last week with three catches for 60 yards.

Thanks for reading, you can follow me on Twitter @FantasySavvy.

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