NFL Best Bets: Week 7

Six weeks in the books, six teams on a bye, as we enter week 7 of the 2021 season. The dominant teams are starting to show who they are and with the more data we have, the “easier” it can be to nail some of these picks. It’s about time we kick things into full gear and fully hit our stride with our best bets. Let’s get right to it with NFL Best Bets: Week 7.

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Early Slate

Packers -8

The Packers are quietly one of the best teams in the NFL as most of the focus this season has been on Dallas, Buffalo, Kansas City, Baltimore, etc. They return home this week against the Washington Football Team and their underachieving defense allowing a terrible 31 points per game. Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and the rest of the Packers offense should have their way with this defense. Taylor Heinicke has not been playing well the last couple of weeks and at this point, it looks like the WFT will go back to Ryan Fitzpatrick when he is ready. Terry McLaurin is playing banged up as is Antonio Gibson and Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas remain out of the lineup. The Packers should win this game by double digits.

Titans +4.5, Chiefs/Titans Over 58

This should be a back and forth game as both teams are allowing a combined 55 points per game and scoring 57 points per game. The total is set at 58 which I believe is the highest total all season, but I’m still taking the over.  KC and Tennessee have already played a combined five games that have reached 58 or more points.

I’m also taking the Titans. This game is a rematch of the AFC Divisional game from last year so the Titans will want their revenge in this game, preventing a hangover from their emotional win Monday night against Buffalo.  Nobody has been able to stop Derrick Henry so far and it’s certainly not going to be this Chiefs who are allowing 133 rushing yards per game.  Julio Jones and A.J. Brown should present problems for this Chiefs secondary as well.

Dolphins +2.5

I am banking on Miami corners Xavien Howard and Byron Jones to both play in this game as well as Davante Parker. There is a chance Preston Williams could also return for this game. If both those corners are ruled out, then void this pick, but right now they are expected to play. I think they will present problems for this Falcons offense and I think Tua and company can do enough on offense against a below-average Falcons defense. Miami is a live dog this week.

Late Slate

Rams -16

The Rams beat up on the Giants last week beating them by 27, while the Lions lost to the Bengals by 23. The Rams also beat the Bucs at home by 10. This spread is high for NFL standards, but the Rams can easily win this game by 21+. The Matthew Stafford revenge game will trump the Jared Goff revenge game.

Bears/Buccaneers Over 47

I was tempted to take the Bears here, but I think the over is the safer play. The Bears defense has certainly been playing well this year, but they will be without edge rusher Robert Quinn (Covid) and DT Akiem Hicks is also questionable to play. The Bears may frustrate Tom Brady some in this game, but eventually, he should have his way, even without Antonio Brown. I also expect Leonard Fournette to have a productive game. This could be the week Justin Fields has a breakout game and see Allen Robinson finally pay dividends for his fantasy owners. I expect somewhat of a back and forth game here, enough to push this one over the total.

Sunday Night Football

Colts +4 

Frank Reich and his coaching staff have helped turn around Carson Wentz’s career thus far as he has a 9:1 touchdown to interception ratio this season. It also helps that Wentz has been well protected by this Colts offensive line who could get Quenton Nelson back this week. This is a Colts team that lost to the Rams by three and took the Ravens to overtime. They certainly can handle the Jimmy Garoppolo led 49ers who are being overvalued in this matchup.

Monday Night Football

Seahawks +4.5

I’m not thrilled backing Geno Smith against this Saints defense, but they are at home on Monday night and 4.5 points do seem a bit high. Seattle may not win this game, but I think they can cover this number.

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Player Props (Caesar’s)

Bengals @ Ravens

Devonta Freeman over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Tee Higgins over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Marquise Brown over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Marquise Brown over 4.5 Receptions (+110)

Rashod Bateman over 3.5 Receptions (+140)

Chiefs @ Titans

Ryan Tannehill over 250.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Derrick Henry over 118.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Derrick Henry 3+ TDs (+700)

Football Team @ Packers

Aaron Rodgers over 258.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Davante Adams over 97.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Davante Adams to score 2+ TDs (+325)

Davante Adams to score 3+ TDs (+1000)

Lions @ Rams

Cooper Kupp 2+ TDs (+295)

Darrell Henderson 2+ TDs (+225)

Texans @ Cardinals

Kyler Murray Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+130)

Brandin Cooks over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

James Conner 2+ TDs (+750)

James Conner 3+ TDs (+2200)

Bears @ Buccaneers

Justin Fields over 220.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Justin Fields over 1.5 Passing TDs (+185)

Justin Fields over 32.5 Passing Attempts (-105)

Justin Fields over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Tom Brady over 2.5 passing TDs (+120)

Marquise Goodwin over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Allen Robinson over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Allen Robinson over 4.5 Receptions (+110)

Cole Kmet over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Cole Kmet over 3.5 Receptions (+115)

Chris Godwin over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Tyler Johnson over 2.5 Receptions (-130)

Leonard Fourette 2+ TDs (+360)

Colts @ 49ers

Carson Wentz over 1.5 Passing TDs (+155)

Carson Wentz over 204.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Deebo Samuel over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Deebo Samuel over 5.5 Receptions (-110)

Deebo Samuel to score a TD (+175)

Jonathan Taylor over 2.5 Receptions (+115)

Jonathan Taylor over 86.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-115)

Jonathan Taylor to score a TD (+106)

Jonathan Taylor first TD scorer (+470)

Saints @ Seahawks

Alvin Kamara over 129.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)

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Sleepers

In fantasy football you need to think ahead, playing chess not checkers. If you have any waste on your roster you can cut or have an IR spot you can utilize you need to take advantage of that. That could mean picking up a backup running back or wide receiver just in case of an injury or grabbing a player that is returning from the IR in a few weeks. It could also mean grabbing a player who is buried on the depth chart, forgotten about, who may be getting an opportunity in the upcoming week(s). Don’t get stale, think outside the box and stay ahead of your opponents and the industry.

Tyler Johnson, WR, Buccaneers

We have talked about Johnson previously and he gets another opportunity this week with Antonio Brown out. With all the byes this week, Johnson can certainly be a solid fill-in, and again if there is an injury to any of these Bucs wide receivers Johnson is going to become a big-time pickup.

Cole Kmet, TE, Bears

Bumping Kmet, as we have discussed him before as well, but with Justin Fields seemingly improving each week, Kmet needs to be on your radar. Last week Kmet had his best game of the season finishing with four catches for 49 yards, they also threw a screen pass to him on the goal line. Kmet could have a nice game this week in a good script against the Bucs where Justin Fields should be throwing it over 30 times. If you are a Dalton Schultz owner like myself, Kmet looks like a good replacement this week with the potential for more.

Kylin Hill, RB, Packers

We are all familiar with Hill, but he’s been pretty much forgotten about with Aaron Jones and A.J Dillon dominating all the carries. If you have an extra spot to hold him for a few weeks he could get an opportunity with an injury to either Jones or Dillon. Of course, you are never rooting for injury, but this is the game we play and he would find himself in a great spot to contribute.

Thanks for reading, you can follow me on Twitter @FantasySavvy.

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