NFL DFS Week 1 Values: Picks, Strategy & Best Plays
There are multiple to assemble a daily fantasy sports (DFS) roster. The intent of this article is to focus on players who represent values and will return on investment for NFL DFS Week 1 slate. Continue reading to learn all about our NFL DFS Week 1 values and the rest of the upcoming 2024 NFL season.
What is a Return on Investment score?
The Return on Investment (ROI) score is determined by dividing the first two numbers of a player’s price tag by their points scored in a given week. The lower the ROI score is, the more a player has returned on your investment.
An example of a good return on investment:
In Week 9 last season, C.J. Stroud was priced at $6,200 on DraftKings and scored 44.8 fantasy points.
62 / 44.8 = 1.38 ROI
An example of a poor return on investment:
In Week 9 last season, Lamar Jackson was priced at $8,200 on DraftKings and scored 12.48 fantasy points.
82 / 12.48 = 6.57 ROI
While you will not always need to use the ROI score to assemble your entire roster, utilizing it on certain players can help you be most cost-effective while assembling the final pieces of your roster.
The Top 10 average ROI among players that finished in the top 25 in scoring last season:
QB: 4.22
RB: 6.06
WR: 5.78
TE: 6.62
Another indicator of daily fantasy success is a player scoring three times his cost (3X). This is a method that has been used in a variety of daily fantasy circles and will be used here.
Example:
In Week 1 last season, Brandon Aiyuk was priced at $4,900.
49 x 3 = 14.7 (Goal to hit 3X cost)
Points scored 35.9 – 14.7 = +21.20
All Prices and Scoring are off of DraftKings.
*Players must play at least two games to be ranked.
Starting next week, we will bring you charts that will showcase all of this throughout the 2024 NFL season.
NFL DFS Week 1 Values – Quarterback
Geno Smith ($5,500)
Seahawks vs. Broncos
Among quarterbacks who played in at least ten games last season, Geno Smith finished with the 11th-best ROI score.
That becomes intriguing when considering that Smith only had one-week last season where he had a cheaper price tag than he has for Week 1.
There is also the alluring expectation that new Seahawks offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb will be looking to throw. Coming over from the University of Washington, Grubb’s play calling provided some of the nation’s best pass rate and deep pass rate.
In terms of their opponent, the Broncos allowed the fifth most touchdown passes last season. On a per-game basis, they allowed 18.6 points per game to the position. Their defense also had three games where they allowed 30 or more points to quarterbacks, tied for third-most in the league.
Smith will need to score 16.5 points in order to score 3X his price tag.
Honorable Mention: Jayden Daniels ($5,700)
NFL DFS Week 1 Values – Running Back
Tony Pollard ($5,900)
Titans vs. Bears
What a difference a season makes. In the first week of the season last year, Tony Pollard had the Cowboys backfield to himself and had a $7,500 price tag on DraftKings.
Fast forward to today and Pollard is now a member of the Titans and priced lower than he ever was in 2023.
Pollard was able to rush for 1,000 yards last season but was a disappointment in the red zone.
What should be noted is that the former Cowboys back was also recovering from ankle surgery. A year removed from that surgery could be beneficial.
The Titans’ new head coach, Brian Callahan comes over from the offensive coordinator position with the Bengals. Over the last three seasons, the lead RB in Cincinnati had averaged 19 total touches a game.
Then there is the Bears who have been in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to running backs in each of the last two seasons. During that time, the Bears’ defense had allowed 26.8 points per game to the position.
Last season in particular, the Bears didn’t have a single week in which they allowed less than 10 points to running backs.
Honorable Mention: Javonte Williams ($5,500)
NFL DFS Week 1 Values – Wide Receiver
Khalil Shakir ($5,100)
Bills vs Cardinals
Let’s kick this one off with the juiciest aspect to rostering Khalil Shakir. He’s a starting wide receiver on a team with one of the best quarterbacks in football and 241 vacated targets.
He is priced at $5,100 this week which means he needs 15.3 points to score 3X his cost. That would give him a ROI score of 3.33, well ahead of the top 25 wide receiver average from last season.
That means as a floor, you’re looking for between five and six receptions for between 85-95 yards. Even with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis on the team, Shakir had three such games last season.
While Budda Baker is one of the better safeties in football, Pro Football Focus has the Cardinals’ secondary ranked as the worst in the NFL.
Considering that along with his price and the fact that Josh Allen targeted wide receivers on 60% of his pass attempts last season, Shakir is the ideal play.
Honorable Mention: Brian Thomas Jr. ($4,700)
NFL DFS Week 1 Values – Tight End
Zach Ertz ($3,600)
Commanders vs. Buccaneers
Entering the first week of the season, Zach Ertz is listed as the TE1 on the Commanders’ depth chart. Being priced at $3,600, the veteran pass catcher will need only 10.8 points to score 3X his cost.
Along with his price, there is that old-time narrative that a rookie quarterback’s best friend is his tight end. While there is no doubt that Jayden Daniels has playmaking upside, if the pocket collapses on him, I believe that dumping it off to Ertz will be his play.
There were numerous reports throughout training camp that Ertz was one of Daniel’s favorite targets.
In terms of their opponent, the Buccaneers finished last season with the third most fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Included in that were seven touchdowns allowed and being one of five defenses to allow over 1,000 yards to the position.
Is Ertz going to be at the top of Commanders’ depth chart all season, no. As long as he is and is this cheap, he is worth the play.
Honorable Mention: Noah Fant ($4,000)
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