NFL DFS Week 2 Values: Picks, Strategy & Best Plays
There are multiple ways to assemble a daily fantasy sports (DFS) roster. This article focuses on players who represent values and will return on investment in the NFL DFS Week 2 action. Continue reading to check out our values, picks, strategy, and best plays for this week.
What is a Return on Investment score?
The Return on Investment (ROI) score is determined by dividing the first two numbers of a player’s price tag by the points scored in a given week. In short, the lower the ROI score is, the more a player has returned on your investment.
An example of a good return on investment:
In Week 9 last season, C.J. Stroud was priced at $6,200 on DraftKings and scored 44.8 fantasy points.
62 / 44.8 = 1.38 ROI
An example of a poor return on investment:
In Week 9 last season, Lamar Jackson was priced at $8,200 on DraftKings and scored 12.48 fantasy points.
82 / 12.48 = 6.57 ROI
While you will only sometimes need to use the ROI score to assemble your entire roster, utilizing it on certain players can help you be most cost-effective while making the final pieces of your roster.
The Top 10 average ROI among players that finished in the top 25 in scoring last season:
QB: 4.22
RB: 6.06
WR: 5.78
TE: 6.62
Another indicator of daily fantasy success is a player scoring three times his cost (3X). This is a method that has been used in a variety of daily fantasy circles and will be used here.
Example:
In Week 1 last season, Brandon Aiyuk was priced at $4,900.
49 x 3 = 14.7 (Goal to hit 3X cost)
Points scored 35.9 – 14.7 = +21.20
All Prices and Scoring are off of DraftKings.
*Players must play at least two games to be ranked.
Quarterback NFL DFS Picks and Values
Baker Mayfield ($5,900)
Buccaneers @ Lions
In terms of return on investment score, Baker Mayfield was the top quarterback in Week 1.
This was due to Mayfield throwing for 289 yards and four touchdowns. This would mark the fifth time in his career in which the Buccaneers quarterback threw for four or more touchdowns in a game.
What helps Mayfield even more is Chris Godwin being used as a slot receiver. Last season, ran routes out of the slot just 19.3% of the time. This past week, the Buccaneers flipped the script and had Godwin in the slot 48.3% of the time.
I believe putting Godwin in a comfortable position to thrive will only help Mayfield. We talked a lot about Godwin in our recent Start Em Sit Em column for this week.
The Buccaneers enter Week 2 and Mayfield’s price has only risen by $300. His opponent this week is the Lions. In their game last week, the Lions allowed 18.7 points to Matthew Stafford. Along with that, they were one of two teams to allow over 300 yards passing in Week 1.
For Mayfield to score 3X his cost, He will need to score 17.7 points. In his time as the Buccaneers quarterback, Mayfield has scored at least 18 points in 61% of his games.
I have no reason to believe that Mayfield won’t be successful in Week 2.
Honorable Mention: Matthew Stafford ($6,000)
Running Back DFS Values
Brian Robinson ($5,800)
Commanders vs. Giants
While the majority of attention went to rookie Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr. was another bright spot in the Commanders offense. In half-point formats, the Robinson finished the week as the RB14.
In terms of return on investment, the Commanders back had the seventh-best ROI score.
Even more significant than Robinson finishing where he did is that he dominated rushing attempts.
While Robinson and Austin Ekeler tied with four targets, the third-year back had 12 rushing attempts while Ekeler had just two.
Up next for the Commanders is a reeling Giants team. This past weekend, the Giants were 12th in points allowed to running backs.
While this isn’t expected to continue for long, it was startling how little Daniels targeted his wide receivers. Terry McLaurin led the wide receiver room with four targets, the same amount as Robinson.
Between rushing attempts, the matchup, and the distribution of targets, Robinson is an ideal play in Week 2
Honorable Mention: J.K. Dobbins ($5,400)
Wide Receiver DFS Values
Brian Thomas Jr. ($4,800)
Jaguars vs. Browns
Of the seven wide receivers drafted in the first of the 2024 NFL Draft, Brian Thomas Jr. was one of two rookies to score a touchdown in Week 1.
The Jaguars pass catcher caught all four of his targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown came towards the end of the second quarter when Thomas was being covered by a linebacker in a cover 2 defense.
That performance had Thomas finishing with 14.7 points scored. His price on DraftKings is up by $100 from last week but I still like Thomas to return on investment in Week 2 when the Jaguars welcome in the Browns.
While the defense has been formidable in the past, the Browns allowed the 10th most points to the wide receiver position. While I do not foresee that being a weekly occurrence, Deshaun Watson continuing to struggle leads to less time for the offense on the field and too much time for the defense to be on the field.
That is where I believe the Jaguars offense takes advantage of the Browns defense and Thomas will be one of the weapons at the forefront of that.
Along with that, With Christian Kirk getting more of the attention out of the two wide receivers, this allows Thomas to take advantage of lesser coverage.
All of this spells a week in which Thomas will be a top-10 wide receiver in returning on your DFS investment.
Honorable Mention: Malik Nabers ($5,900)
Tight End DFS Values
Colby Parkinson ($3,100)
Rams @ Cardinals
While there were several disappointments at the tight position, there were a few Week 1 surprises. One of those surprises would be Rams tight end, Colby Parkinson.
Parkinson failed to score a touchdown but he did catch four of five targets for 47 yards. That performance was good for the TE7 on the week.
He did this while being priced at $3,100 and his price remains the same headed into this week. This means that he will need to score 9.3 points to meet his 3X expectations. He was less than a point away from that against the Lions.
The big factor in Parkinson getting targets is Puka Nacua landing on the injured reserve list. As much as those who roster Cooper Kupp would love this, 21 targets per game for one player is not something we can expect.
While the Cardinals allowed just 4.4 points to tight ends in Week 1, the recurring theme this offseason has been that the Cardinals defense is going to give up a ton of fantasy points this season.
Personally, I’m leaning on that more so than what we saw from them in Week 1. Ultimately, Parkinson will be a type-five tight end in terms of returning on his DFS investment.
Honorable Mention: Brock Bowers ($4,400)
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