NFL DFS Week 3 Values: Picks, Strategy & Best Plays
There are multiple ways to assemble a daily fantasy sports (DFS) roster. This particular article focuses on players who represent values and will return on investment in the NFL DFS Week 3 action. Continue reading to check out our values, picks, strategy, and best plays for this week.
What is a Return on Investment score?
The Return on Investment (ROI) score is determined by dividing the first two numbers of a player’s price tag by the points scored in a given week. In short, the lower the ROI score is, the more a player has returned on your investment.
An example of a good return on investment:
In Week 9 last season, C.J. Stroud was priced at $6,200 on DraftKings and scored 44.8 fantasy points.
62 / 44.8 = 1.38 ROI
An example of a poor return on investment:
In Week 9 last season, Lamar Jackson was priced at $8,200 on DraftKings and scored 12.48 fantasy points.
82 / 12.48 = 6.57 ROI
While you will only sometimes need to use the ROI score to assemble your entire roster, utilizing it on certain players can help you be most cost-effective while making the final pieces of your roster.
The Top 10 average ROI among players that finished in the top 25 in scoring last season:
QB: 4.22
RB: 6.06
WR: 5.78
TE: 6.62
Another indicator of daily fantasy success is a player scoring three times his cost (3X). This is a method that has been used in a variety of daily fantasy circles and will be used here.
Example:
In Week 1 last season, Brandon Aiyuk was priced at $4,900.
49 x 3 = 14.7 (Goal to hit 3X cost)
Points scored 35.9 – 14.7 = +21.20
All Prices and Scoring are off of DraftKings.
*Players must play at least two games to be ranked.
Quarterback NFL DFS Picks and Values – Week 3
Derek Carr ($5,800)
Saints vs Eagles
Projected Ownership: 6.1%
After a heartbreaking Week 2 loss, the Eagles are traveling to New Orleans on a short week to take on the surging Saints offense, led by Derek Carr.
In terms of DraftKings scoring, Carr is the only quarterback with back-to-back games with 20+ points scored. With him being priced at less than $6,000 entering those matchups, the Saints quarterback has the best ROI score (2.41) at this position.
While his Week 3 price is increasing by $500, I still consider him a solid ROI candidate this week.
The Saints offense is second in the league with 15.3 yards per completion. The offense should be able to maintain that at least for this week as the Eagles defense is first in the league in allowing 13.1 yards per completion.
The Eagles defense is just outside the top-12 in points allowed to the position but Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has Carr and company firing on all cylinders.
Look for Derek Carr to have his third straight game with 20 or more points scored.
Honorable Mention: Geno Smith ($5,600) – Projected Ownership: 6.0%
Running Back NFL DFS Picks and Values – Week 3
Tony Pollard ($6,000)
Titans vs Packers
Projected Ownership: 4.0%
Among running backs that have played in the first games, Tony Pollard is tenth among running backs in ROI score.
Even though his price tag for this week has gone up by $100, Pollard will still be a good play this week as I have him projected for his first 20+ point game of the season.
For starters, Pollard is already seeing plenty of opportunity. Among his position, the Titans back are 10th in rushing attempts and fourth in running back targets. In terms of his team, Pollard has gotten 61% of the team’s rushing attempts and he is tied for second in team targets with 19%.
With all of that workload, Pollard is averaging 98 total yards on a per-game basis. Those games were against defenses outside the top 10 in points allowed to the position.
As one of the focal points of the offense, the expectation is Pollard will have plenty of opportunity against a Packers defense that is allowing the sixth most points to the position. They are also one of 11 defenses allowing more than 20 points to the position in each of the first two weeks.
Not like Tyjae Spears is a serious threat to Pollard’s workload, Spears is currently dealing with an ankle injury that has kept him sidelined at practice this week.
Honorable Mention: Zamir White ($5,500) – Projected Ownership: 3.6%
Wide Receiver NFL DFS Picks and Values – Week 3
Rashid Shaheed ($5,300)
Saints vs. Eagles
Projected Ownership: 7.1%
Rashid Shaheed enters the week third at this position in our ROI, scoring with 2.45. He has done this with touchdowns in each of his first two games and is averaging 24.1 yards per reception.
Even with Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara there, Shaheed is still leading the Saints with a 23% target share. As compared to last season, the talented pass catcher is averaging three more targets per game this year than he was in 2023.
While the Eagles changed defensive coordinators and attempted to make improvements, they are still struggling to start the season. Entering Week 3, their defense is third in fantasy points allowed to the position and are one of four teams to allow more than 50 points to wide receivers in a game this season.
As previously mentioned in this article, this Eagles’ defense is playing on the road on a short week. The potential for a slow defensive start is there and the way the Saints are playing, it is hard to envision a scenario where the Saints don’t take advantage of this out of the gate.
Just to sum this up, we have a player who leads in target share on an offense that is red hot and is only $5,300 on DraftKings. Seems like a slam dunk to me.
Honorable Mention: Jameson Williams ($5,800) – Projected Ownership: 9.2%
Tight End NFL DFS Picks and Values – Week 3
Brock Bowers ($5,400)
Raiders vs Panthers
Projected Ownership: 5.7%
With two Monday night games and the Falcons and Chiefs playing on Sunday night, this tight end position is thin. To be clear, George Kittle is the best play on the slate but he also has a projected ownership of 13.6%, the highest at the position.
Looking a little further down the list, Brock Bowers of the Las Vegas Raiders.
Headed into this week, Bowers leads all tight ends in targets with 17. Posting a catch percentage of 88.2%, the Raiders rookie also leads the position with 156 yards receiving.
While Bowers has yet to score his first NFL touchdown, the opportunity will be there against a Panthers defense that has two touchdowns to the position, the highest mark in the league.
Along with the touchdowns, the Panthers are allowing the fourth most points to the position and on a per-game basis are allowing 16.15 points.
With the Panthers having trouble against tight ends, Bowers entering this game with a 25% Raiders target share tells me that the Carolina linebackers are in for a long day this Sunday.
Honorable Mention: Luke Schoonmaker ($4,400) – Projected Ownership: 0.7%
Trending Now
Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings
