NFL Player Prop Bets: Buccaneers @ Cowboys

I’m back! More importantly, Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets are back! So, let’s get down to business.

On Sunday night we have a matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for the game.

All of the odds in this article come from DraftKings. If you’re new, check out the latest deal they’ve got going on:

Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets

Ezekiel Elliott Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Elliott has been one of the top running backs since he entered the NFL in 2016. However, he averaged 13.9 rushing attempts and 58.9 rushing yards per game last season, both career lows. Furthermore, Tony Pollard had the best year of his career in 2021. He averaged 8.7 rushing attempts and 47.9 rushing yards per game last season.

More importantly, the Buccaneers had the top rushing defense last year. They held opposing running backs to only 67.7 rushing yards per game in 2021. Tampa Bay also gave up only four yards per rushing attempt. Furthermore, Elliott was limited in the Week 1 matchup against the Buccaneers last year. He had only 33 rushing yards on 11 attempts as Tampa Bay shut down the Dallas rushing attack. Vita Vea and the Buccaneers’ front seven will shut down Elliott.

Tom Brady Over 0.5 Interceptions (-130)

While Brady is the greatest of all time, that doesn’t mean he can’t make mistakes. Brady has never been a high interception throwing quarterback. His career high for interceptions thrown in a season was 14 back in 2005. However, Brady has thrown 12 interceptions in back-to-back years with the Buccaneers.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys led the NFL in interceptions last year with 26. The reason why Dallas was so successful in creating turnovers was Trevon Diggs. The former Alabama cornerback had 11 interceptions last season, accounting for 42.3% of the team’s total. The Cowboys also picked off Brady twice in their Week 1 matchup last year, with Diggs coming away with one. Brady also threw at least one interception in over 50% of the games last year. While he might carve up the Dallas secondary, expect Brady to have at least one interception.

Dalton Schultz Over 4.5 Receptions (-160)

Last year Schultz broke out. He posted career highs in several categories, including receptions (78), targets (104), receiving yards (808), and touchdowns (eight). Schultz became a go-to target for Dak Prescott, especially when the Cowboys were without one of their top wide receivers. He averaged 6.1 targets and 4.6 receptions per game last season. However, he had five or more receptions in half the games without Michael Gallup.

Since Gallup will miss this matchup and Amari Cooper is a member of the Cleveland Browns, Schultz should see a massive target share. More importantly, the Buccaneers struggled to slow down tight ends in 2021. They allowed the sixth-most receptions to the position, giving up 5.8 receptions per game. Last year, Schultz caught all six of his targets in the Week 1 matchup last season despite Gallup playing 60% of the snaps.

If you like to bet on small single-game parlays, Schulz is an interesting option. A single-game parlay of over 49.5 receiving yards and five or more receptions for him pays out at +100.

Mike Evans Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

There are several elite wide receivers in the NFL, and Evans belongs in that conversation. While he isn’t as dynamic as Cooper Kupp or explosive as Justin Jefferson, Evans is arguably one of the most consistent wide receivers in the league. He has averaged 76.2 receiving yards per game for his career. In the past two seasons with Brady, Evans has averaged 63.8 receiving yards per game despite Tampa Bay having numerous weapons.

Currently, Chris Godwin and Russell Gage are dealing with injuries. Even if both are active, they likely won’t be 100% and play a full snap count. As for veteran Julio Jones, he has been with the team for less than seven weeks, while Rob Gronkowski retired in the offseason. All that being said, Brady has one weapon he can count on 100% in this game, and it’s Evans. Diggs was terrific at creating turnovers last year, but he also gave up over 1,000 receiving yards. With a limited supporting cast around him, expect Brady to target Evans early and often in this game.

Dak Prescott Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (+105)

Prescott isn’t an elite running quarterback like Lamar Jackson, but, he is a capable and reliable runner. Last year, Prescott averaged a career-low 9.1 rushing yards per game. However, he was protecting himself coming off the severe ankle injury he suffered in 2020. Despite the career-low average last season, Prescott has talked about running more this season now that he is nearly two years removed from the injury.

Over the first five years of his career, Prescott averaged 19 rushing yards per game. More importantly, he averaged at least 17.3 rushing yards per game every year of his career until last season. In the 21 games Dak played in 2019 and 2020, he had 15 or more rushing yards in 42.9% of them. Prescott had 13 rushing yards on four attempts in the Week 1 matchup last season in his first game since the injury. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers gave up the fourth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks last season, surrendering 24.9 rushing yards per game to the position. All it takes is one big scramble for Prescott to hit the over on this prop bet.

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