NFL Player Prop Bets: Colts vs. Broncos

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Last week I had a strong performance, going 4-1 on my prop bets. Tyreek Hill had 160 receiving yards despite the loss of Tua Tagovailoa, more than doubling his over/under number. Tee Higgins and Joe Burrow each hit the over on their prop bets, while Chase Edmonds had only six rushing yards, easily hitting the under on his prop bet. The only one I had wrong last week was Mike Gesicki under 20.5 receiving yards. He ended the game with two receptions for 23 yards. Now, let’s get down to business for this week.

For Thursday Night Football this week, we have a matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos while fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Courtland Sutton Over 4.5 Receptions (-140)

Denver’s passing game has struggled in recent memory because of poor quarterback play. Whether was Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater, the wide receivers struggled with consistency. While Russell Wilson got off to a slow start this season, the future Hall of Famer got going last week. The biggest beneficiary was Sutton. The fifth-year receiver had his first touchdown of the season last week against the Las Vegas Raiders. More importantly, he had five or more receptions for the third straight game, averaging six receptions per game this season.

Defensively, the Colts have a strong unit. Unfortunately, the defense is dealing with a few injuries and won’t have superstar linebacker Shaquille Leonard or safety Julian Blackmon. However, their best cornerback, Stephon Gilmore, will play tonight. Gilmore has a reputation for shutting down the opposing team’s No. 1 wide receivers, but that hasn’t been the case this season. Over the first four weeks, opposing No. 1 wide receivers have averaged 5.5 receptions on 7.5 targets for 69.8 receiving yards per game. Furthermore, three of those receivers had five or more receptions in their matchup against the Colts. Sutton is playing well and should keep it up tonight.

Michael Pittman Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-105)

The third-year man has played well this season as the unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver. Despite missing the Week 2 contest with an injury, Pittman has 224 receiving yards this season, averaging 74.7 per game. Furthermore, the former USC star has at least 72 receiving yards in 67% of his games this year. More importantly, Pittman’s 23.1% target share is more than double any other wide receiver on the team. With Jonathan Taylor sidelined for this game because of an ankle injury, the Colts will need to lean on their star receiver even more than usual.

Meanwhile, the Broncos have a developing superstar cornerback in Patrick Surtain Jr. While he has played well over the first 20 games in his career, Surtain has struggled against opposing No. 1 wide receivers. Opposing No. 1 wide receivers have averaged 6.3 receptions on 9.5 targets for 66 receiving yards against the Broncos this season. Furthermore, Denver has given up 174 receiving yards to the top opposing receiver over the past two weeks, surrendering at least 73 yards in both matchups. Given Indianapolis’ lack of running game tonight, Pittman will see the needed targets to hit the over on this prop bet.

Russell Wilson Over 228.5 Passing Yards (-115)

While it took him a few weeks to find his footing in a new situation, Wilson looked like his old self last week against the Raiders. The veteran quarterback had 237 passing yards and two touchdowns while averaging 9.5 yards per pass attempt. Furthermore, Wilson is averaging 245 passing yards per game this season, throwing for over 330 yards in a quarter of the games. More importantly, the future Hall of Famer has found his grove with his receivers, completing 68% of his passes last week after completing only 53% the previous two weeks.

Unfortunately, the Colts will be without two critical starters on defense tonight as Leonard and Blackmon won’t play due to injury. While the injuries won’t turn Indianapolis’ defense into a high school unit, the losses are significant. Over the first four games of the year, the Colts have given up an average of only 218.5 passing yards per game. However, that number doesn’t tell the complete truth. Last week Ryan Tannehill had only 137 passing yards on 21 attempts against the Colts. In the first three games this season, quarterbacks have averaged 245.7 passing yards per contest, by comparison, throwing for at least 235 yards in every game. With Javonte Williams out for the year, the Broncos will need to lean more on their $245 million quarterback.

Alec Pierce Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The Colts don’t have many weapons on offense, as Taylor and Pittman are the two stars of the unit. However, Pierce has flashed potential this year. The second-round rookie receiver had an awful Week 1 performance, failing to catch either of his two targets, including a drop in the end zone. After missing the Week 2 matchup with a concussion, Pierce returned to the lineup and has played well. Over the past two weeks, the rookie has caught seven of his 11 targets for 141 receiving yards, totaling at least 61 yards in both contests. More importantly, his 11 targets are the second-most on the team during that span, only four fewer than Pittman.

While the Broncos have a talented secondary, they haven’t completely shut down opposing No. 2 wide receivers. Over the first four weeks of the year, opposing No. 2 receivers have averaged 3.3 receptions on 5.5 targets for 39 receiving yards per game against the Broncos. Furthermore, those wide receivers have at least 33 receiving yards in three straight contests. Matt Ryan has targeted Pierce more downfield the past two weeks as the rookie is averaging 62 air yards per game during that span. With Justin Simmons on injured reserve, expect the veteran quarterback to test out his replacement downfield a few times in this game.

Jerry Jeudy to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+180)

I usually try to avoid touchdown prop bets as they are harder to predict than over/under prop bets. However, there aren’t many good prop bets for this game, so I’m going to take a stab in the dark with Jeudy. The third-year receiver has played well this season with Wilson under center, leading the team with two receiving touchdowns. He had a 67-yard touchdown reception in Week 1 and the second Wilson passing touchdown last week against the Raiders.

Meanwhile, the Colts have given up only three receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season, the 12th-fewest in the NFL. However, they have faced some sub-par wide receiver units this year. The Colts have faced the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, and Tennessee Titans this season. Those four teams have only two wide receivers with more than one touchdown reception in 2022. Furthermore, the Colts have given up all three receiving touchdowns to wide receivers over the past three weeks, giving up a touchdown once per 9.3 receptions. Jeudy might be kept out of the end zone tonight, but at nearly 2-1 odds, I’ll take a chance on the Broncos’ top touchdown producer.

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