NFL Player Prop Bets: Commanders vs. Bears

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Last week I had another solid performance, going 3-2 on my prop bets. Courtland Sutton finished with five receptions, barely beating the over on his prob bet. Alec Pierce was the best receiver on the Indianapolis Colts, totaling 81 receiving yards on eights reception, more than doubling the number on his prop bet.

However, Pierce’s career night came at Michael Pittman’s expense. The third-year receiver had 59 receiving yards, missing the over on his prop bet by eight yards. Now, let’s get down to business for this week.

Tonight we have a matchup between the Washington Commanders and the Chicago Bears. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Justin Fields Over 170.5 Passing Yards (-115)

The second-year quarterback’s 2022 season hasn’t gotten off to the best start this season. He is averaging only 17.6 pass attempts per game but has averaged 135.8 passing yards per contest this year. However, Fields is coming off his best game of the year last week, throwing for 208 yards on 21 pass attempts.

Furthermore, the Chicago quarterback had back-to-back games with 20 or more pass attempts and 174 or more passing yards after averaging only 15 pass attempts and 99 passing yards over the first three weeks. In short, the Bears passing attack is starting to click.

Defensively, Washington has been awful this season, giving up 255 passing yards per game to quarterbacks. Furthermore, they have given up 275 or more passing yards in two games this season. While the Commanders held Cooper Rush and Ryan Tannehill to an average of 202 passing yards per game the past two weeks, those quarterbacks averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt.

Meanwhile, Fields has averaged 8.8 yards per pass attempt over the past two weeks. While he won’t have a 250-yard performance tonight, Fields should have no trouble throwing at least 190 yards.

Curtis Samuel Over 4.5 Receptions (-120)

After struggling with injuries last season, Samuel has been the Commanders’ No. 1 wide receiver in 2022. The former Carolina Panther leads the team in targets with 45 and is second in receiving yards with 281. More importantly, his 32 receptions are eight more than any other player on the team.

Meanwhile, his 6.4 reception per game average is 20.3% higher than his previous career high. Furthermore, Samuel has at least four receptions in every game this season while pulling in six or more passes in four contests.

Fortunately for the Bears, they should get cornerback Jaylon Johnson back for tonight’s game. However, Samuel plays 71% of his snaps out of the slot and has a great matchup against the rookie Kyler Gordon. According to PFF, the second-round pick has allowed receivers to catch 81% of their targets this season.

More importantly, the Bears haven’t faced many talented wide receivers this season, thanks to matchups against the New York Giants and Houston Texans the past few weeks. Samuel has become Carson Wentz’s favorite target this year. So expect the former Ohio State star to have his fifth game of the year with six or more receptions tonight.

David Montgomery Over 82.5 Scrimmage Yards (-115)

With the Bears averaging only 17.6 pass attempts per game this season, their focus has turned to the running game. While Montgomery has averaged only 3.8 yards per rushing attempt this season, the veteran running back has averaged 17.7 touches per game in his three healthy contests.

More importantly, he is the clear starter in the backfield. Khalil Herbert has averaged only 6.3 touches per game in Montgomery’s three healthy games this season. Meanwhile, Montgomery had at least 82 scrimmage yards in the past two games he’s been able to finish.

While the Washington defense has played better lately, they are still giving up 89.4 rushing yards per game to the running back position this season. Furthermore, they have surrendered 120.8 scrimmage yards per game to running backs.

The Commanders have also given up at least 134 scrimmage yards to running backs in 60% of their games this season, including 155 yards last week. Montgomery will have no problem hitting the over on this prop bet. However, if you want to be more aggressive with this bet, the alternative line of over 99.5 scrimmage yards pays out at +370.

Carson Wentz Over 219.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Despite Washington’s 1-4 record, Wentz has mostly played well in his first season with the Commanders. The veteran quarterback is averaging 278 passing yards per game this season, throwing for over 310 yards in 60% of the games. Furthermore, the offseason addition has played even better when given time to pass. In the Weeks 3 and 4 matchups, Wentz got sacked 11 times and averaged only 190.5 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, he got sacked nine times in the other three games this season, averaging 336.3 passing yards per game in those contests.

Given that Wentz can get sacked three times a game and still average over 330 passing yards is excellent news for bettors. The Bears have only eight sacks this season, the third-fewest in the NFL. Furthermore, they have only three sacks over the past three weeks.

Moreover, Chicago has 44 quarterback pressures this season, ranking in the middle of the league. Will the Bears get 3-4 sacks on Wentz tonight? Probably. Washington’s offensive line has dealt with injuries and inconsistent play all year. Yet, that won’t keep Wentz from throwing at least 220 yards in this game. However, if you want to be more aggressive with this bet, another alternative line of over 299.5 pass yards pays out at +550.

Darnell Mooney Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Coming off an impressive sophomore season, many had high expectations for Mooney in 2022. Unfortunately, the third-year receiver has been held back by Chicago’s limited passing attack. Mooney is averaging only 4.2 targets per game this season after averaging 8.2 last year.

Furthermore, his 34.6 receiving yards per game average is a 44.3% decrease from last year’s average. However, the young receiver has 16 targets over the past three weeks after seeing five over the first games. More importantly, Mooney has back-to-back games with at least five targets and 52 receiving yards.

Meanwhile, the Commanders’ defense hasn’t been able to stop a nosebleed this season, let alone a talented wide receiver. Washington has surrendered 190 receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season, the fourth-most in the NFL.

They have given up at least 150 receiving yards to the position in 80% of the games this year, including 225 or more yards in two contests. After having a 17.9% target share over the first two weeks, Mooney has a 26.7% target share over the past three games. With Washington’s secondary struggling, bettors shouldn’t be surprised if Mooney has his first 100-yard performance this year tonight.

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