NFL Player Prop Bets: Ravens vs. Buccaneers

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Last week I had a disappointing performance, going 2-3 again on my prop bets. Zach Ertz struggles as predicted, totaling only 21 receiving yards, easily hitting the under on his prop bet. Meanwhile, Chris Olave was the star of the New Orleans Saints passing attack last week. He led the team with 106 receiving yards, nearly doubling his over/under number. However, the game was a higher-scoring contest than I predicted, as there were only six punts in the game, missing the over by three. Now, let’s get down to business for this week.

Tonight we have a matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sport bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Cade Otton Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

With Rob Gronkowski’s retirement in the offseason, the Buccaneers have relied on the veteran Cameron Brate this year. However, he will miss tonight’s game because of a neck injury. Filling in will be the rookie Otton. The former Washington tight end has played well over the past month, averaging 3.8 receptions on 4.8 targets per game. More importantly, he has averaged 39.8 receiving yards per game during that span, totaling at least 29 receiving yards three times, including a career-high 64 yards last week.

Meanwhile, the Ravens have struggled to slow down tight ends this season, surrendering 44.6 receiving yards per game to the position. More importantly, Baltimore has given up 33 or more receiving yards to tight ends in every game since opening weekend. Furthermore, the Ravens gave up a season-high 86 receiving yards to the Cleveland Browns’ tight ends in Week 7. With Brate out again this week, Otton should have his second straight game with over 30 receiving yards.

Lamar Jackson Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The former MVP winner has been unstoppable this season. Jackson is fifth in the NFL with 510 rushing yards this year, averaging 72.9 yards per game. However, he has been extremely effective with his rushing attempts compared to top rushers. The other four players in the top five are averaging 19.8 rushing attempts per game, while Jackson is averaging only 9.4 attempts per contest. More importantly, the superstar quarterback has averaged 82.2 yards per game since Week 1, totaling at least 58 rushing yards in every contest.

Tampa Bay has a reputation for being an elite run defense. Last year they gave up only 92.5 rushing yards per game, the third-fewest in the NFL. However, things have been different this season, as the Buccaneers have surrendered 118.3 rushing yards per game, the 16th-most in the league. Furthermore, they have struggled to slow down running quarterbacks lately, giving up 29 yards per game to the position on only 4.8 rushing attempts per contest over the past four weeks. With J.K. Dobbins sidelined and Gus Edwards coming off a torn ACL, Jackson should lead the Ravens in rushing yards in tonight’s game.

Tom Brady Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115)

Would the real G.O.A.T please stand up? Last year Brady led the NFL with 43 passing touchdowns. However, he is on pace to throw only 19 this season. The last time Brady had fewer than 20 passing touchdowns in a season was in 2001. More importantly, the future Hall of Fame quarterback has thrown more than one touchdown pass in only one game this season. Furthermore, he had zero passing touchdowns last week against the Carolina Panthers. It was only the fourth time Brady has failed to throw a touchdown pass in 40 career games with Tampa Bay.

While the Ravens have struggled to slow down opposing passing attacks, they have done well at limiting the damage. Baltimore has given up 1,960 passing yards to quarterbacks this season, the fourth-most in the NFL. However, they have surrendered only 11 passing touchdowns to the position, ranking closer to the middle of the league. More importantly, they have given up only four touchdowns over the past five weeks, giving up only one passing touchdown to Josh Allen and Joe Burrow each during that span. Hopefully, Brady and the Tampa Bay offense get their act together. Unfortunately, it’s not likely to be this week.

Mark Andrews Under 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Andrews has been dealing with a knee injury for the past few weeks. More importantly, the veteran tight end didn’t take part in practice all week and could miss tonight’s game. However, bettors should expect a quiet performance from the star tight end if he plays. Last week he played 88% of the snaps but had only two targets and zero receiving yards in the game. Furthermore, Andrews had failed to total 59 or more receiving yards in a third of his games this season before last week. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have done a good job slowing down opposing tight ends this year.

Yes, the Buccaneers’ defense hasn’t been the elite unit it was in the past. However, they are still keeping opposing tight ends in check. Tampa Bay has surrendered 53.1 receiving yards per game to the position this season, the 12th-most in the NFL. Yet, the only tight end to have more than 49 receiving yards against them this year is Travis Kelce. Therefore, the Buccaneers have held tight ends other than Kelce to only 40 receiving yards per game this season. More importantly, they have sundered under 33 receiving yards to the position in two of the past three games. If Andrews plays tonight, bettors should expect him to be limited.

Mike Evans Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Despite Tampa Bay’s offensive struggles this year, Evans has put together another solid season. The veteran receiver is 14th in the NFL, averaging 75.7 receiving yards per game. Furthermore, the former Texas A&M star has totaled at least 71 receiving yards in 66.7% of the games this season. Evans has also totaled 80 or more receiving yards in three of the past four weeks, averaging 80.5 receiving yards per game during that span. More importantly, the veteran has been Brady’s go-to weapon this year, leading the Buccaneers with 48 targets and a 16.2% target share while accounting for 23.4% of the receiving yards on the team.

The Ravens have struggled against opposing wide receivers this season. They have given up 1,341 receiving yards to the position, the third-most in the NFL. Furthermore, Baltimore has surrendered 215 or more receiving yards to wide receivers in nearly half of their games this year. More importantly, opposing No. 1 wide receivers have had their way with the Ravens’ secondary, averaging 92.3 receiving yards per game. Evans could hit the over on this prop bet early before the end of the third quarter.

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