NFL Player Prop Bets: Saints vs. Cardinals

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Last week I had a disappointing performance, going 2-3 on my prop bets. Justin Fields and Darnell Mooney hit the over on their yardage prop bets, but David Montgomery came up three yards short of hitting his over.

Unfortunately, the Washington Commanders’ offense struggled. Carson Wentz suffered a fractured finger on his throwing hand and had only 99 passing yards in the game. Meanwhile, Curtis Samuel struggled with drops. Now, let’s get down to business for this week.

Tonight we have a matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the Arizona Cardinals. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Player Prop Bets: Saints vs. Cardinals

Alvin Kamara Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

After dealing with a rib injury to start the year, Kamara has put together back-to-back strong performances. Over the past two weeks, the veteran running back has averaged 21 rushing attempts for 101 yards per game while averaging 4.8 yards per rushing attempt.

Furthermore, he had at least 99 rushing yards in both contests and 61 or more rushing yards in three straight games. The former Tennessee star is averaging 75.5 rushing yards per game this season, a higher average than several other elite running backs, including Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler. More importantly, the matchup this week is solid.

Arizona has given up 80 rushing yards per game to running backs this season. However, they have surrendered at least 71 rushing yards to the position in all but one game. More importantly, the Cardinals have given up 176 rushing yards to running backs over the past two weeks, ranking around the middle of the league.

While Arizona hasn’t been awful at stopping the run, Kamara will see enough volume to hit the over on this prop bet. With Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry out again this week, the veteran running back will be the centerpiece of New Orleans’ offense.

Zach Ertz Under 48.5 Receiving Yards (-135)

The veteran tight end has been a reliable target for Kyler Murray this season. However, despite having six or more receptions in every game since Week 1, Ertz hasn’t racked up the receiving yards.

Over the past four weeks, the veteran tight end had 49 or more receiving yards in a game only once. Furthermore, he has only two games this season with 50 or more receiving yards. Meanwhile, DeAndre Hopkins will make his season debut tonight, impacting Ertz’s role.

Last year in the three games Hopkins played at least 30% of the snaps with Ertz on the field, the veteran tight end averaged only 39.3 receiving yards per game. By comparison, he averaged 59.1 receiving yards per game in the seven games Hopkins missed last season.

More importantly, the Saints have shut down tight ends this season, giving up only 32 receiving yards per game to the position, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. They have also given up more than 35 receiving yards to the tight end position in only one game this season. Expect Ertz to have a quiet performance this week.

Chris Olave Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

With the veterans Thomas and Landry out again this week, the rookie wide receiver will be the focal point of the Saints passing attack. The first-round pick from Ohio State is averaging 77.8 receiving yards per game this season, the 12th-most in the NFL. Furthermore, Olave has averaged 9.8 targets per game since Week 1.

More importantly, he had 67 or more receiving yards in four straight games before suffering a concussion in Week 5 and leaving the game early with 54 yards.

Meanwhile, the Arizona secondary has struggled to slow down opposing passing attacks this year. The Cardinals have given up an average of 63.7 receiving yards per game to the top opposing wide receiver this season.

Furthermore, the opposing team’s top wide receiver had 66 or more receiving yards in four games against Arizona this season. After missing the Week 6 matchup with the concussion, Olave is back and ready to pick apart the Arizona secondary.

Over 8.5 Total Punts in the Game (+110)

Most of the Thursday night games have been boring this season. Over the first six Thursday night games, we’ve seen an average of 9.2 punts per game. Furthermore, there have been 10 or more punts in four of the past five prime-time matchups.

More importantly, we’ve had more punts when two limited offenses face off. Last week Washington and Chicago combined for 10 punts, while Indianapolis and Denver combined for 12 the week before. While New Orleans and Arizona don’t have awful offenses, there don’t have explosive units like the Buffalo Bills or Kansas City Chiefs.

Saints’ punter Blake Gillikin has 27 punts this year, averaging 4.5 punts per game. He has at least four punts in all but one game this season, including five or more in half of the games. Meanwhile, Cardinals’ punter Andy Lee has 23 punts this season, averaging 3.8 per game.

However, he has four or more punts in four of six games this season, including three of the past four. The Saints won’t have Thomas or Landry for this game, and the Cardinals won’t have Marquise Brown, so both offenses might struggle to march downfield, especially early in the game.

Wil Lutz Under 2.5 PATs Made (-185)

If we can bet on punters, we can do kickers too! The Saints kicker has played well this season, making all 12 of his point after touchdowns (PATs). However, his chances to kick after touchdowns have been limited. The veteran kicker is averaging only two made PATs a game in 2022. Furthermore, he has two or fewer made PATs in all but one game this season. Moreover, Lutz has attempted only one PAT in a third of the game this year.

Defensively, the Cardinals haven’t given up a lot of touchdowns this season. While opposing kickers haven’t missed a PAT this season, they have only attempted 12 of them. Furthermore, opposing kickers have two or fewer made PATs in all but one game against the Cardinals in 2022.

The one exception was in Week 1 against the Chiefs and their explosive offense. Since Week 1, opposing kickers have averaged only 1.6 PAT attempts per game. Hopefully, tonight’s game is better than the past few matchups. However, don’t expect a lot of touchdowns from either team.

Already on DraftKings? All of our exclusive Sportsbooks partners can be found here!

You can also find all of these prop bets and more over on PrizePicks. Sign up for PrizePicks with the promo code FACEOFF for a 100% match up to $100!

Sports Betting Home

DFS Home

Free NFL Picks

Player Prop Bets