NFL Week 10 features a loaded slate full of juicy NFL markets to bet on.

While 2022 has had its ebbs and flows, we bounced back in Week 9 with an 8-4 overall record, this time having a great week on totals at 5-1 and an average week on sides at 3-3. This brings our overall record to 42-26 (61.7%) 31-19 on sides and 11-7 on totals. Last week 12 plays, and this week only four.

Remember we are betting lines, not teams, and a lot of these lines are very close this week. Vegas might be starting to sharpen things up. That is why it’s very important to search multiple books for the best lines and buy those hooks (.5 point) or even a point from time to time to increase your chances of winning.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears 

The Pick: Bears -3

Yes, we are picking the Bears once again. It worked out last week as Fields almost overcame his defense and took down the Dolphins coming up short by just three points. This week he gets an awful Lions defense and an offense that has struggled of late.

D’Andre Swift is off the injury report and was mad about his lack of usage last week, so expect an uptick in playing time from him this week. However he and Amon-Ra St. Brown, the “False God” won’t be enough to overcome this up-and-coming Bears offense.

The Lions are just off a huge win last week vs Green Bay and I expect there to be a letdown as they travel to the Windy City. This will be real football weather as the temps are expected to dip below 40 degrees. Jared “Malibu’s Most Wanted” Goff may not fare so well in those temps.

Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins

The Pick: Over 49

Jacoby Brissett has certainly held his own this season helping Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones stay productive. It also helps that he plays behind a solid offensive line and is supported by a highly effective running attack. We don’t need to discuss how effective this Dolphin’s passing game has been.

Now, the addition of running back Jeff Wilson looks to have given this run game a boost. Both teams are converting 40% of their third downs and are moving the chains. Both teams’ defenses are average to below average statistically. Plenty of playmakers in this game, expect a high-scoring affair in Miami.

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers

The Pick: Green Bay +4

Most people will probably be picking Dallas this week for multiple reasons. The Packer’s season looks to be lost, they just got beat by the Lions, Dallas is fresh off a bye and this is a Mike McCarthy “Revenge Game”.

Again, I am betting lines here, and maybe my numbers are off, but I think this is too many points for the Packers at home. I expect the Packers to play a strong game defensively, Aaron Rodgers to be on his “A” game, and for this running game to be effective.

That said, A.J. Dillon needs to start running like the tank he is, not like Mary Poppins walking through a tulip garden. This pick doesn’t feel great, but my numbers favor Green Bay.

Indianapolis Colts @ Las Vegas Raiders

The Pick: Colts +4.5

The Colts fired their head coach Frank Reich after last Sunday’s loss 26-3 loss to the Patriots and then hired their former star center Jeff Saturday to be their interim head coach. Are the Colts tanking? Or is Jim Irsay trying to address his offensive line which used to be the strength of this team, by hiring his former All-Pro Center in Saturday? It’s probably a little bit of both, but the Colts actually still have a chance to make a run at the playoffs playing in this weak AFC South division.

I like Saturday’s demeanor and attitude and I am definitely rooting for him. On the other side, Josh Mcdaniel’s second go around at being an NFL Head Coach has been disastrous as the Raiders are 2-6 and if they lose this game, his job could be on the line.

Derek Carr has taken a step back after a career season last year. This Colts defense did just lose Shaq Leonard for the year, but he’s been in and out of the lineup all year anyway. Their defense has been the one strong suit of this team. I certainly have my doubts about Sam Ehlinger at QB, but I expect this Colts offense to get the run game going with Jonathan Taylor who is off the injury report this week. Taylor is due for a big game.

It’s also possible we could see Matt Ryan at some point and I think the Colts would be smart to go back to him at some point if they are indeed trying to make the playoffs this year. I don’t know how Irsay feels about that, but I know Jeff Saturday is going to do everything in his power to win games.

Thanks for reading, you can follow me on Twitter @FantasySavvy.

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