Last week wasn’t good at 1-5, but we are still 34-22 for the season overall, 28-16 on sides, and 6-6 on totals. I am currently ranked top five overall on Tallysight and top 20 overall on sides. A lot of season left, so we continue to work, grind and look to finish strong. Let’s get the bounce back this week, we got a season-high 12 plays on the board!

Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears

The Picks: Bears +4.5, Over 46

Another week, another game we are picking the Bears. Justin Fields continues to improve every week, smashing against the Patriots and Cowboys defenses the last two weeks.

The Bears added Chase Claypool to the mix before the trade deadline and he is expected to play around 15-30 snaps. Claypool should settle in eventually and really help this depleted Bears receiving corps. No pun. We like this to be a high-scoring affair to push this game over 46 and for the Bears to stay close, covering the 4.5.

Carolina Panthers @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Pick: Over 42.5

The Panthers are averaging 27.5 points on offense the last two weeks with P.J. Walker at quarterback. D’Onta Foreman is running well just like he did last year with the Titans, filling in for Derrick Henry. DJ Moore has come alive the last two games and even 2nd year-wideout Terrance Marshall got into the mix Sunday.

This team is playing better football since the departure of Matt Rhule. The Bengals struggled offensively last week without Ja’Marr Chase, but I expect them to bounce back here in this spot at home against the Panthers who allowed 37 points to Marcus Mariota and the Atlanta Falcons. Buy the hook down to 42.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

The Picks: Packers -3.5, Under 49.5

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers have now dropped four straight games. The good news is they haven’t dropped five straight since 2008 and Rodgers historically owns the Lions with an 18-6 record throwing 52 touchdowns to just eight interceptions.

The Packers showed some signs in that 2nd half against Buffalo last Sunday night and I expect that to carry over this Sunday in a get-right game for Green Bay. The Lions have lost five straight and just traded away one of their best players in T.J. Hockenson.

D’Andre Swift continues to struggle with injuries and likely won’t play that much in this game. It will be Amon-Ra St. Brown, Khalif Raymond maybe Josh Reynolds, and a bunch of unknowns for Jared Goff and this passing game. The Packers have a lot going for them here to grab this cover.

Both teams are lacking offensive playmakers and their current strength is the running game which should keep this game under the total. Buy the Packers down to three points and that total up to 50 to be safe. This looks like a nice two-team teaser also.

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots

The Picks: Patriots -5.5, Under 40

Sam Ehlinger played decent last week against the Commanders in a game they should have won until Taylor Heinicke pulled out Heiny-Time and snuck out a road win against the Colts. Now he has to go up against Bill Belichick who historically devours young quarterbacks.

Expect Ehlinger and the Colts’ offense once again without Jonathan Taylor to struggle. I don’t expect the Patriot’s offense to do much here either, but I expect them to win by at least six. 23-17 Patriots.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Pick: Over 48

I was hesitant to pick the over in this game based on these teams’ recent performances, but I expect both offenses to get right in this game. This game has a sneaky stack DFS appeal as players may not be willing to invest in these offenses despite the 48 total.

Davante Adams had the flu last week, he should have a big bounce back. Christian Kirk and even Jones have some appeal. Travis Etienne and Josh Jacobs should both have big days. Evan Engram has a great matchup. 31-28 final?

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

The Picks: Seattle +2, Over 49

This is one of the two late afternoon games this week and it should be an interesting rematch of three weeks ago when Seattle won 19-9. I expected that game to be fairly high scoring and although the two teams combined for over 600 total yards of offense, they ended up going 1-7 in the red zone, kicking five field goals.

Things have changed for the Cardinals since that game as they now have DeAndre Hopkins back in the lineup and Rondale Moore is healthy. Look for this game to hit the over this time in the desert. Pete Carroll is up for coach of the year right now and he gives Seattle a huge edge against the Cardinals being coached by a likely “fake sharp” in Kliff Kingsbury.

Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rams +3

The Pick: Rams +3

The 2nd game of the late afternoon slate is a battle between two struggling veteran QBs, offenses, and teams that we all expected to be in much better spots than they are now. Both teams are averaging under 19 points per game.

Both offense’s run games have been horrific averaging under 70 yards per game. I really don’t trust either offense right now, so maybe the under is the play, but I will take the three points with the Rams. I trust Sean Mcvay a lot more than Todd Bowles and Byron Leftwich.

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Pick: Chiefs -12.5

Ryan Tannehill may not play again this week, leaving rookie Malik Willis to possibly play his 2nd career NFL start on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead. Derrick Henry also popped up with a foot injury earlier in the week and even though he’s off the injury report now, he may not be fully healthy coming off a 32-carry game last week against Houston.

The Chiefs meanwhile added some firepower to their offense and special teams with the addition of Kadarius Toney. They are also converting 52% of their third downs, and are coming off a 44-point performance against the 49ers before their bye. Andy Reid with an extra week to prepare is always dangerous.

The actual numbers are pretty close when I compare this matchup and look at the spread, but the Titans are just going to be overwhelmed in this game. I expect the Chiefs to win by at least two touchdowns.

Thanks for reading, enjoy the games! You can follow me on Twitter @FantasySavvy

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