While the 2024 fantasy football season is still a few months away, the die-hard players can’t wait for draft season. Josh Allen has been the QB1 drafted for the past several years. However, that should change in 2024, with Patrick Mahomes taking over as the first quarterback drafted in all leagues. Despite not turning 29 until September, Mahomes is already all but a lock to be a Hall of Famer.
The Kansas City Chiefs have won back-to-back Super Bowls even without Mahomes having an elite wide receiver core. While his fantasy football production wasn’t ideal in 2023, the superstar has been a consistent QB1 for fantasy players since his first year as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback. However, will he be the clear-cut QB1 when the 2024 season concludes? In this article, I’ll dive into Mahomes’ fantasy football outlook for the upcoming season as well as his dynasty football value.
QB Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Value
Mahomes is heading into his sixth year as the starting quarterback, totaling at least 26 passing touchdowns every season. More importantly, the superstar averaged 20.5 or more fantasy points per game every year until last season, averaging only 17.5 fantasy points per contest. Yet, he posted a career-high 67.2% competition rate in 2023 while setting career bests in rushing attempts (75) and yards (389).
While Mahomes had the worst fantasy year of his career, the superstar still had multiple high-end performances. He scored 33.9 fantasy points in Week 7, tossing 424 yards and four touchdowns against the Los Angeles Chargers. Meanwhile, fantasy players should have high hopes for the former Texas Tech star after the Chiefs made several additions to his wide receiver core this offseason.
Fantasy Football Outlook
The veteran is ranked inside the top-five quarterbacks for almost every fantasy football expert this offseason, regardless of scoring format. However, Mahomes should be the clear-cut QB1. Travis Kelce will return despite speculation that the superstar would retire after last season. More importantly, Kansas City added Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy to their receiving core, giving Mahomes three difference-makers at wide receiver.
Unfortunately, Rashee Rice will likely miss time this upcoming season with a suspension after multiple off-the-field incidents. However, the second-year star shouldn’t miss more than six or eight games. While Mahomes will miss having his go-to guy in the middle of the field for part of the year, the Chiefs have the weapons to make up for it. Therefore, Mahomes has the upside and floor to make him the clear-cut QB1 in my rankings.
Dynasty Football Outlook
Fantasy players in dynasty fantasy football leagues can argue that Mahomes, Allen, and Jalen Hurts all have a case to be the QB1. Furthermore, there is an argument for C.J. Stroud and Lamar Jackson after their outstanding 2023 seasons. However, Mahomes has the best blend of floor and upside among the quarterbacks.
Brown likely won’t return in 2025. Yet, Kansas City has two talented young wide receivers – Worthy and Rice. Furthermore, the team has high hopes for Jared Wiley as a potential Kelce replacement in a few years. Mahomes has proven to be a locked-in QB1 without an elite receiving core. He won’t turn 30 until the 2025 season, giving fantasy players seven or eight more seasons of elite production from the superstar quarterback.
Conclusion
The quarterback position has never been deeper for fantasy football. However, Mahomes is worth the price in both redraft and dynasty leagues. The superstar has been outstanding regardless of who is in his receiving core. Fantasy managers can feel confident starting him every week, knowing he is unlikely to bust but could be a weekly winner. While there are several elite fantasy quarterbacks, Mahomes is my clear-cut QB1 in redraft and dynasty leagues this year.
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