Patriots @ Bills Wild Card Weekend: Player Prop Bets

Player prop lines are slowly coming out across the major sportsbooks and there are a few names to take advantage of early on before the numbers change. The Patriots and Mac Jones take on Josh Allen and the Bills. These teams split this year, the Patriots winning Week 13, 14-10. The Bills won in Week 16, 33-21. I’ll break down some of my favorite player prop bets here in Patriots @ Bills Wild Card Weekend: Player Prop Bets.

Current Lines:

Over/Under 44 Points

Bills -4.5

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Stefon Diggs Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-110 PointsBet) 3 Units

We’ll start this off with the Buffalo Bills and Stefon Diggs, who has had a semi-disappointing season based upon his preseason expectations. However, he is still ranked as the WR6 on the season and has seemed to be more of a focal point of the offense over the last few weeks. Over the last five weeks, and in some questionable weather situations, Diggs has been averaging 6.5 receptions and nearly 66 yards per game. He has been a matchup problem for J.C. Jackson over the last two seasons, and I expect a big game for Diggs on Saturday night even with the cold temperatures.

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-125 DraftKings) 3 Units

Speaking of weather, it’s going to be VERY cold in Buffalo on Saturday evening. We’re talking about hovering around zero degrees and with the 10MPH wind gusts, it’s going to feel well below zero. With nearly 5 YPC, the New England Patriots are averaging 185.5 rushing yards on 36.5 attempts per game against the Bills. New England is going to run a lot on Saturday and I expect the bigger Stevenson to get the bulk of those carries over Damien Harris. I jumped all over this line and could see Stevenson having over 39.5 yards in the first half.

Mac Jones Under 30.5 Passing Attempts (-125 Caesars) 3 Units

The last time New England played in Buffalo with some questionable weather, Mac Jones had three passing attempts. He did have 32 attempts in their second matchup, but the weather was significantly better. With it going to be windy and very cold on Saturday, look for the Patriots to use their big physical running backs a lot. You also have to consider that Mac Jones has never played in a game with temperatures under 32 degrees. Barring a blowout in the Bills favor, I think this is easy money.

Jakobi Meyers Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110 PointsBet) 2 Units

Throwing out the hurricane game in Week 13 against the Bills, Jakobi Meyers had six receptions for 59 yards in their Week 16 matchup. Although he has been lacking on the touchdowns, Meyers has been the primary receiving target in this Patriots offense averaging five receptions for 51 yards per game. I expect a very similar stat line for Meyers this week. Meyers will be the primary receiver and will have a hard time against the Bills top passing defense, but he will find holes in the zone and will get over 50 yards. 

Cole Beasley Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115 Caesars) 1 Unit

A few weeks back when the Bills last played the Patriots, Cole Beasley was on the COVID-IR and Isaiah McKenzie filled in mightly for him. Running many of the same routes Beasley would have been running, McKenzie had 11 receptions for 125 yards and a touchdown. It seems like Beasley has not had a large role in the Bills offense this season, but he still has had 82 receptions for 693 yards in the 16 games he’s played in. This comes out to over 40 yards per game, and even if he gets a quarter of the targets Mckenzie received in the Week 16 matchup against the Patriots, he’ll hit the over. Beasley should be suiting up on Saturday and reprising his third and Cole role. 

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