Player Prop Bets: Thanksgiving 2022

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Prop Bets.

Last week I had an awful performance, going 1-4 on my prop bets. The only prop to hit was Ryan Tannehill’s over 0.5 passing touchdowns. He had a pair of touchdowns, throwing one to Dontrell Hilliard and the other to Austin Hooper. However, the Green Bay passing attack struggled despite the appealing matchup against a poor Tennessee secondary. Meanwhile, the Packers held Derrick Henry to 87 rushing yards on 28 attempts. I have hit on 56.4% of the props this season, but the last week’s article was awful. Hopefully, I can bounce back with a strong performance this week.

Thanksgiving is here, and that means we have three Thursday games this week. The first matchup is between the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions. The following matchup is between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys. To end the night, we get a matchup between the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings. Read more on those matchups here.

Typically I give my five favorite prop bets for the Thursday night game. However, in the spirit of Thanksgiving, I have six prop bets this week. One for each team playing tomorrow, so let’s dive into it!

All odds are from DraftKings

Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions

Josh Allen Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-195)

Allen is an MVP candidate and was the favorite to win the award until a few weeks ago. The superstar quarterback had seven passing touchdowns over the first two games this year. However, he has 14 passing scores over the past eight games, averaging 1.8 per contest. More importantly, his passing numbers are down over the past month as Allen is dealing with an elbow injury. The superstar has four passing touchdowns over the past four weeks, throwing under 2.5 in every contest, including under two touchdowns in three straight games.

The Lions have an awful defense. However, they have surrendered only 1.6 passing touchdowns per game this season. Furthermore, Detroit has given up over 2.5 passing touchdowns only twice this season and just once since Week 2. More importantly, the Lions have given up four passing touchdowns over the past three weeks and one or fewer passing scores in four of their past six contests. Unless the Lions turn this game into a shootout, Allen likely won’t need to throw more than two touchdowns to get a victory.

Jared Goff Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-150)

After an impressive start to begin the year, Goff has cooled off. The veteran quarterback had six passing touchdowns over the first two games of the year and 11 over the first four weeks. However, his play has fallen off a cliff since then, throwing four touchdowns over the past six games. More importantly, Goff has thrown under 1.5 touchdowns in 60% of the games this season, including five of the past six contests. Meanwhile, the Lions have won three straight games focusing on the running game and limiting Goff’s workload. He is averaging only 26 pass attempts per game during the team’s winning streak, compared to 35.6 per game over the first seven contests.

Last week the Bills gave up a season-high three passing touchdowns to Jacoby Brissett. However, it took the veteran 41 pass attempts to throw three touchdowns. Meanwhile, Buffalo has surrendered only 1.2 passing touchdowns per game this season. They have held quarterbacks to one or fewer passing touchdowns in 70% of the games this season, including two straight before last week. Hopefully, the Bills will get back some members in the secondary for tomorrow’s game. Regardless, Goff will have a quiet performance.

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

Saquon Barkley Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Barkley has returned to the superstar he was as a rookie this year. He is averaging 95.3 rushing yards per game, the second-most in the NFL. Furthermore, the superstar had averaged 103.4 rushing yards per game before last week’s awful performance. More importantly, Barkley totaled at least 70 rushing yards in all but one game before last week against the Lions. In the Week 3 matchup against the Cowboys, the superstar running back had 81 rushing yards on only 14 attempts.

Dallas has surrendered 1,082 rushing yards to running back this season, the 10th-most in the NFL. They have given up 108.2 rushing yards per game to the position, giving up 112 or more in half of the games. Furthermore, the Cowboys have surrendered 93 or more rushing yards to running backs in four of their past five games, giving up 125.6 rushing yards per game during that span. More importantly, Dallas has given up 73 or more rushing yards to running backs in all but two games this season. After a poor performance last week, expect Barkley to bounce back tomorrow afternoon.

Tony Pollard Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

While Ezekiel Elliott returned last week after missing the previous two games with a knee injury, Pollard was still productive. The former Memphis Tiger had 15 rushing attempts last week, matching Elliott. However, he had 80 rushing yards and averaged 5.3 yards per rushing attempt. By comparison, the former Ohio State star had 42 rushing yards and averaged 2.8 yards per rushing attempt against the Minnesota Vikings. Pollard is clearly the better running back at this point. More importantly, the fourth-year running back has averaged 70.1 rushing yards per game this season, totaling 80 or more yards in six of the past eight contests.

Meanwhile, the Giants have surrendered 1,134 rushing yards to running backs this season, giving up 113.4 yards per game to the position. They have allowed running backs to total at least 90 rushing yards in all but one game this season. Furthermore, New York has surrendered 123 rushing yards per game since their bye week, including 150 yards last week. More importantly, the Giants have given up over 110 rushing yards to running backs in half of the games this season, including a season-high 178 yards to the Dallas duo in Week 3. In that matchup, both Cowboys running backs had over 70 yards in the 23-16 win.

New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Last week, Stevenson had only 26 rushing yards in the win over the New York Jets, his lowest total since Week 1. Yet, the second-year running back had 56 receiving yards in the contest. It was the third time over the past four games that Stevenson had 55 or more receiving yards. More importantly, the former Oklahoma Star is averaging 28.3 receiving yards per game this season. However, he is averaging 49.3 receiving yards per game over the past four contests and 34.6 yards per game over the past eight contests. While Damien Harris will cut into Stevenson’s work on the ground, the former Sooner is the clear-cut pass-catching running back.

The Vikings have held running backs to only 764 rushing yards this season, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. However, they have surrendered 423 receiving yards to the position this year, the eighth-most in the league. Furthermore, Minnesota has given up 44.8 receiving yards per game to running backs since their bye week, the sixth-most to the position during that span.

New England’s passing attack has struggled lately. Over the past four games, Stevenson led the team in receptions (24) and receiving yards (197). Between his recent success and the matchup, Stevenson will have no trouble hitting the over on this prop bet.

Justin Jefferson Over 88.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

While he is coming off an awful performance last week against the Cowboys, Jefferson is in a great position to bounce back tomorrow night. The superstar receiver is averaging 109.3 receiving yards per game this season, second in the NFL. Furthermore, the former LSU star has totaled 98 or more receiving yards in 70% of the games this season, including six straight before last week’s performance. Jefferson has also totaled 145 or more receiving yards in nearly half the games this season, including a career-high 193 receiving yards two weeks ago against the Bills.

More importantly, the Patriots’ secondary is overrated. They have held wide receivers to 1,350 receiving yards this season, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. However, New England has faced several limited passing attacks this season. Yet, in the four matchups against the Miami Dolphins, Packers, Jets, and Lions, the Patriots have surrendered 104.3 receiving yards per game to the opposing No. 1 wide receiver. They gave up at least 92 receiving yards to Tyreek Hill, Allen Lazard, Garrett Wilson, and Josh Reynolds.

If the Patriots can’t keep Reynolds from totaling 90 receiving yards, they have no chance of containing Jefferson. The superstar receiver could hit the over on this prop bet by halftime.

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