Predicting the WR1 for 2022 Fantasy Football
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Over the past 10 years, we have had nine different wide receivers finish as the WR1 for fantasy football. Those players were: Calvin Johnson, Josh Gordon, Jordy Nelson, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, and Antonio Brown (twice).
What it Takes
First, I wanted to take a closer look at those nine players mentioned above and see what stats they needed to average in order to finish as the WR1. I took the average of the past 10 seasons for receptions and touchdowns per season. The averages are listed below:
- 116 Receptions
- 12 TDs
Next, I looked at how old they were when they did this and what season they were in as a pro. Here’s what I came up with:
- About 26 years old
- 5 Years in the NFL
Next, I looked at the quarterbacks during their WR1 season. Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlisberger were the quarterbacks for six of the 10 seasons as they all did it twice. The other four seasons were Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson, and Jason Campbell. So being tied to an elite quarterback obviously does not hurt.
Next, I looked at the nine wide receivers to see if there was anything in common with them per their fantasy finishes before they actually became the top fantasy-scoring wide receiver. They all finished in the Top-15, two years prior to their WR1 season. The only two who did not meet this were Gordon — who was not in the league two years prior — and Brown.
Lastly, I looked up their average draft position (ADP) the year they became the WR1. All of them except Gordon (2nd year in the league) were drafted as a Top-16 wide receiver in fantasy football the year they became the WR1.
The following wide receivers were Top-15 in 2020: Adams, Hill, Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, D.K.Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Mike Evans, A.J. Brown, Hopkins, Tyler Lockett, Allen Robinson, Robert Woods, Chase Claypool, and Marvin Jones.
Looking at those 15 wide receivers if we look at their current ADP from fftoday.com, we can eliminate the following wide receivers: Ridley, Thielen, Hopkins, Lockett, Robinson, Woods, Claypool, and Jones.
That leaves us with seven remaining wide receivers. Adams, Hill, Diggs, Metcalf, Jefferson, Evans, and A.J. Brown.
The following wide receivers do not meet the criteria:
Davante Adams – Adams will be 30 years old this year in his 9th season. WR1 has only been above 28 years old once in the past 10 seasons.
Tyreek Hill – Hill will be 28 years old this year in his 7th season. WR1 has only been above his 6th season once in the past 10 seasons.
Stefon Diggs – Diggs will be 29 years old this year in his 8th season. WR1 has only been above 28 years old once in the past 10 seasons.
Mike Evans – Evans will be 29 years old this year in his 9th season. WR1 has only been above 28 years old once in the past 10 seasons.
D.K. Metcalf – DK will only be 25 years old in his 4th season but he is not tied to an elite quarterback.
A.J. Brown – AJ will only be 25 years old in his 4th season but he is not tied to an elite quarterback. He is the closest to fitting the criteria if Jalen Hurts takes a step forward this year.
Who Fits the Criteria?
So which wide receiver does that leave? 10 years is a decent sample size, and I’ve pulled all of the possible names that could finish as the WR1 this year, based on those numbers. There is one wide receiver left who has a shot at the WR1 spot this year.
Justin Jefferson – He is only 23 years old entering year 3 in the league. He has finished the past two seasons in fantasy football 6th as a rookie and 4th during his 2nd season in the league. He is still tied to Kirk Cousins who may not be elite in real football but for fantasy football, he has been pretty darn good. Adam Thielen is on the decline as he is aging.
Yes I know I do not have Ja’Marr Chase is not on this list. He was not in the league in 2020. Could he be the next Josh Gordon to become the WR1 in their 2nd season? Maybe, but I am not betting on it with him splitting targets with Tee Higgins.
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