Roschon Johnson – 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Running Back – Texas
6’0″ 219 lbs
4th Round – 13th Pick (115th Overall) – Chicago Bears
All off-season, Roschon Johnson has been one of the most underrated running backs in this rookie class. Personally, I like him as he is a great runner with excellent size. With a BMI of 29.7, Johnson has the size to be a three-down back at the next level. Furthermore, there’s more to Johnson’s game than just his size, as he has excellent vision, burst, and flashed as a pass catcher early in his college career.
While Johnson wasn’t on the radar as an elite prospect like some of these other guys, his opportunity was severely limited. To give some backstory, Johnson was initially recruited to Texas as a quarterback. However, during his freshman year, which he planned to redshirt, he was thrown into the mix at running back due to an abundance of injuries.
Despite not being a running back, he was very good, putting up a 649-7-23 stat line. Unfortunately for Johnson, Bijan Robinson took over after year one as the starting running back. As expected, this made it difficult for Johnson to prove himself as an elite prospect.
Fantasy Football Outlook
While I love Johnson as a prospect, he won’t be a day-one impact player due to his Day 3 draft capital. Historically, running backs drafted on Day 3 have such a low hit rate in the NFL that they’re not even worth drafting. However, Johnson has valid excuses for his inconsistency and was still only selected 13 picks into the 4th round.
While It’s unlikely Johnson has a significant role in this Bears offense week one; I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a significant factor near the end of the year. This is an excellent situation as even though the team has Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman, both of these players have only been committee players as well.
Both have never been good pass catchers, so if Johnson can translate that potential he showed in year one at Texas, he can be a big part of the offense. I’m drafting Johnson, hoping he is a great pass catcher at the next level and can be a three-down back due to his size. I love the value of Johnson in the late rounds of fantasy football drafts due to the elite upside he provides.
Dynasty Outlook
Personally, I’m much more excited about Johnson for dynasty fantasy football leagues than just in 2023. The term “project player” has been applied to many quarterbacks in this class, but it fits Johnson as well. The running back has the potential to be a three-down back but has never been able to show it.
There’s a good chance the Bears choose to invest in a running back later on, but due to the number of holes on this roster, I project that Johnson will be safe from a first-round pick for the next few years. Nevertheless, there’s a lot to love about Johnson, as he will be entering a team that was ranked third in the league in rushing attempts per game at 32.8.
With the off-season the Bears had, I expect this Justin Fields-led offense to be much better, ultimately benefiting Johnson as well. I love Johnson’s value if you can get him at the 2.02-2.06 in your rookie drafts.
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