Best Bets for March Madness 2025: Upsets & Picks for NCAAB
The 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is here, kicking off with the First Four on March 18-19 and the Round of 64 on March 20-21. For sports bettors, March Madness 2025 offers a prime chance to cash in on upsets, value spreads, and smart totals. With the bracket set on Selection Sunday, early betting odds are ripe for the picking. Here’s a guide to the best bets for March Madness 2025, focusing on First Four and Round of 64 matchups, backed by stats, trends, and expert insights.
First Four Betting Picks for March Madness 2025
The First Four sets the stage in Dayton, often delivering tight games and undervalued underdogs. Here are two standout bets for the First Four action.
Mount St. Mary’s vs. American: Under 132 (-110)
Slow-paced teams collide in this First Four matchup. Mount St. Mary’s ranks outside the top 300 in tempo, while American boasts a top-100 defense (KenPom). When these two met back in January, the total hit 118 points. Additionally, the First Four nerves could keep scoring low. All things considered, you can bet the under at 132 for a solid NCAA Tournament betting play.
VCU (+2.5) vs. Liberty (Moneyline +120)
VCU, the Atlantic 10 champ, brings a top-50 defense in steals to rattle Liberty’s slower offense. At +2.5, the Rams are a safe spread bet. However, the +120 moneyline offers upset potential. This might even be a pick that you might make as a live bet when the odds are juicy.
Top Round of 64 Bets for March Madness 2025
The Round of 64 is where March Madness betting heats up, with Cinderella stories and bracket-busting upsets. Here are five bets with strong value for the 2025 March Madness tournament:
No. 12 Grand Canyon (+5.5) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s
Grand Canyon’s 28-4 record and top-40 offense make them a classic 12-seed upset pick. Notably, they beat Saint Mary’s in 2024, and the Gaels struggle against non-Gonzaga foes in the tourney. Take the +5.5 points for a safe March Madness 2025 bet.
No. 11 UC San Diego (+130 ML) vs. No. 6 Michigan
UCSD’s 30 wins and steals leader Hayden Gray could exploit Michigan’s turnover woes (bottom 40 nationally). At +130 on the moneyline, this 11-seed upset pick has upside alert written all over it.
No. 13 High Point (+8.5) vs. No. 4 Purdue
Purdue’s late-season skid (six losses in nine games) meets High Point’s top-10 three-point shooting. Ultimately, the +8.5 spread offers value against a vulnerable Boilermakers squad missing Zach Edey’s rim protection.
No. 10 Memphis (+115 ML) vs. No. 7 Colorado State
Memphis’ fast-paced chaos (top 20 in tempo) could overwhelm Colorado State’s shaky perimeter D. The +115 moneyline is a steal for this year’s NCAA Tournament in the first round slate of games.
North Carolina (-2.5) vs. No. 15 South Dakota State
UNC’s RJ Davis and top-25 defense should handle South Dakota State’s 1-12 Quad 1 record. At -4.5, this is a chalky but smart bet to kick off your March Madness 2025 betting run.
March Madness Betting Tips for 2025
Focus on 11- and 12-Seeds: Stats show 11-seeds win 39.1% of first-round games and 12-seeds 35.3% since 1985. Notably, you can target teams like UCSD or Grand Canyon.
Fade Public Favorites: Early betting splits (e.g., 82% on Baylor -13.5 in 2024) often inflate lines on big names like Duke or Auburn. Personally, I’d be looking for value elsewhere.
Live Betting: Jump on live odds during slow starts by favorites like Purdue for extra March Madness betting juice.
Where to Place Your NCAA Tournament Bets
Shop lines at all of the top sportsbook options. DraftKings Sportsbook has sharp First Four odds (VCU +2.5), BetMGM offers early spreads (High Point +8.5), and FanDuel’s moneyline prices (Memphis +115) are competitive. With legal betting in nearly 40 states, check your local options.
Final Thoughts on March Madness 2025 Bets
These picks blend KenPom data, recent NCAA trends, and real-time news to pinpoint the best bets for March Madness 2025. Whether you’re chasing upsets or playing it safe, the First Four and Round of 64 offer plenty of action. Which matchup are you betting on? Let us know your top NCAA Tournament betting picks! Stay tuned for more picks as March Madness progresses.
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