NFL Best Bet Week 11: Raiders vs. Dolphins (2024)
Welcome to our free NFL best bet for Week 11 of the 2024 football season. With a full slate of exciting games, Week 11 in the NFL features an intriguing AFC matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) and Miami Dolphins (3-6) from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. Our free best bet for Week 11 features a player prop bet. Continue reading to learn more.
All NFL odds and lines are current as of Saturday, November 16th, at 9:30 PM, EST, courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook.
Domenic Lunardo’s 2024 NFL Betting Record: 8-4-0 (+ 2.78 Units)
Bet Name: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) UNDER 241.5 Passing Yards
Sportsbook: bet365
Odds: (-110)
Wager: 1 Unit
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Our best bet between Las Vegas and Miami will target Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to go Under his passing prop, currently set at 241.5, on a single-unit wager. The total for this game is 44, with the Dolphins entering as hefty 7.5-point home favorites. This means that oddsmakers and sportsbooks are anticipating a relatively high-scoring matchup. Ultimately, with the Miami Dolphins as the favorites by at least a touchdown.
Tagovailoa has undergone an up-and-down, injury-riddled campaign. As a result, this is shown on the stats sheet. Among his fellow quarterbacks, the former Alabama star ranks 27th in passing yards (1,155), 29th in touchdowns with just six, and 25th in Passer Rating (49.8).
Furthermore, Tagovailoa is also outside the top 20 quarterbacks in several advanced metrics/analytics. Average Completed Air Yards (CAY), Average Intended Air Yards (IAY), Longest Completed Air Distance (LCAD), and Expected Completion Percentage, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
This afternoon, Tagovailoa and the Dolphins will be up against a Raiders team fresh off their bye week. Recently, they have played fairly well on defense, specifically against the pass, in lieu of their abysmal 2-7 overall record. However, now we have a healthy Dolphins offense with Tyreek Hill back, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane. We’ll see if they can turn things around and be as explosive as they once were.
As a team, Las Vegas ranks 13th in football in Opponent Pass Attempts per Game (31.1). Additionally, they’re 11th in both Opponent Passing Yards per Game (195.1) and Opponent Gross Passing Yards per Game (211.6), via NFL Team Rankings.
In terms of game script, Miami enters this contest as massive 7.5-point home favorites, and (-370) odds to win outright. This carries with it a substantial 78.72% implied-win probability. This means we are likely to see a more run-heavy approach from the Dolphins offense. Expect them to look to possess the ball, play with the lead, and work the clock.
Finally, this particular wager also offers some slight +EV, as this same passing prop is listed at (-115) odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. It’s also important to note that Tagovailoa has gone under 241.5 yards through the air in four of his past five games. This translates to a fantastic 80% success/hit rate.
Take the Under at a decent (-110) price point for our NFL best bet of the day between the Dolphins and Raiders in Week 11.
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