NFL Best Bet of the Day | Broncos vs. Ravens – Week 9
Week 9 in the NFL continues on Sunday afternoon with an intriguing AFC matchup between the Denver Broncos (5-3) and Baltimore Ravens (5-3) at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. Continue reading for our Week 9 NFL best bet of the day between the Broncos and Ravens.
All NFL odds and lines are current as of Saturday, November 2nd, at 3:00 PM and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Domenic Lunardo’s 2024 NFL Betting Record: 7-3-0 (+2.87 units).
Bet Name: Derrick Henry (BAL) OVER 89.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: (-110)
Wager: 1 Unit
NFL Best Bet of the Day – Titans vs. Lions in Week 9
Our best bet between Denver and Baltimore will target Ravens running back Derrick Henry’s rushing prop, currently set at 89.5, on a single-unit wager.
The total for this game is 46.5, with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens as heavy 9.5-point home favorites. This means that professional oddsmakers, betting markets, and sportsbooks are anticipating a high-scoring affair. Additionally, this includes two of the better teams in the AFC. Ultimately, they have the Ravens winning by a significant margin.
After spending eight seasons in the Tennessee backfield, Henry has enjoyed a stellar campaign thus far with the Ravens. From a statistical standpoint, the former Alabama star ranks first among running backs in carries (145), rushing yards (946), and touchdowns (nine).
Henry has also posted some terrific advanced metrics/analytics this year. Impressively, ranking first among active running backs with a minimum of 45 carries in each of the following categories: Rushing Yards Over Expected (407), 8+ Defenders in the Box Percentage (36.55%), and Average Rushing Yards (6.5), per NFL Next Gen Stats.
On Sunday afternoon, Henry will be up against a Denver defense. Currently, they sit in and around the “middle of the pack” against the run. Notably, ranking 16th in football in both Opponent Rushing Attempts per Game (26.5) and Opponents Rushing Yards Percentage (37.64%), via NFL Team Rankings.
When examining a player prop bet, the underlying game script always takes precedence. For the Ravens, as hefty 9.5-home favorites and (-500) odds to win outright, that carries with it a substantial 83.33% implied-win probability. This signifies that we are likely to see a more run-heavy approach from the Baltimore offense, where Head Coach John Harbaugh will look to possess the ball, play with the lead, and work the clock, ultimately keeping the Broncos offense off the field.
It’s also important to note that Henry has surpassed 89.5 yards on the ground in five of his past six games, accounting for a fabulous 83.3% success/hit rate.
Take the Over on Henry’s rushing prop at a solid (-110) price point for our Week 9 NFL best bet of the day.
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