NFL Player Prop Bets AFC Championship: Chiefs vs. Bills
The Super Bowl is just around the corner as we head into the Conference Championship weekend. With just two games this weekend, the 2024-2025 NFL season is nearly in the books. For the AFC Championship, we have Patrick Mahomes and the reigning champions hosting Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. This game kicks off on Sunday at 6:30 PM, EST. Today, I’ll be breaking down my top NFL player prop bets for this AFC Championship matchup. Let’s get right into the picks for the Chiefs and the Bills.
NFL Player Prop Bets – AFC Championship: Chiefs vs. Bills
This rivalry between Mahomes and Allen has become a very exciting one over the past few seasons. Will Mahomes and the Chiefs complete the threepeat and win their third-straight Super Bowl? Or will this finally be the year that Allen and the Bills take the spotlight away from them?
The Bills have won three of the last four matchups that they’ve faced the Chiefs in. However, they’ve lost in the playoffs to the Chiefs in 2023 in the Divisional Round, 2021 in the Divisional Round, and 2020 in the AFC Championship. Needless to say, the Bills are looking for revenge.
All props are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Josh Allen Over 232.5 Passing Yards (-110)
In his last five games against the Chiefs, Allen has averaged 252.5 passing yards per game with a 94.5 Passer Rating. The last time these two teams faced off was in Week 11 when the Bills came out on top 30-21. In this matchup, Allen threw for 262 yards, going 27 of 40 with one touchdown and one interception. That’s the most pass attempts he’s had all season. In what should be another high-scoring and exciting matchup, don’t be surprised if Allen ends up nearing this total pass attempt mark once again.
James Cook Anytime TD Scorer (+120)
Outside of Allen, the player with the best odds to find the end zone in this matchup is James Cook. Cook has been playing at a totally different level this year. In total, he had a league-high 16 rushing touchdowns for all running backs. This was tied for first with none other than Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs.
In total, Cook has played in just three games against the Chiefs in his career. During those games, he’s taken 21 carries for 86 yards and three touchdowns. Earlier this year when the two teams played, Cook saw just 9 carries, but found the end zone twice. Additionally, he saw a season-high in targets (6) and receptions (5). The Bills will need to dominate possession time in this one if they want to take the Chiefs down. Getting Cook involved in both the passing and rushing game is going to be key.
You might even sprinkle Cook as the first touchdown scorer in this game at +900 odds. For what it’s worth, you can also get Cook to score 2+ touchdowns at +800 odds. Both of which are intriguing.
Patrick Mahomes Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
So far this year, the Bills defense has been fairly underwhelming. Notably, they have been arguably the worst group in the NFL at stopping the run. In five total games against the Bills in his career, Mahomes has 126 rushing yards. This is despite the Week 11 game where he didn’t record a single run. For what it’s worth, Kareem Hunt took 14 carries for 60 yards in this matchup with Isiah Pacheco on the sideline with his broken leg.
In what I’m expecting to be a high-scoring affair, Mahomes will certainly need to get some production in with his legs. We’ve seen in the past that Mahomes tends to see an increase in rushing production during the playoffs. Mahomes is simply a winner and does whatever it takes to get it done. Don’t be shocked if he lowers his shoulder to get every possible extra yard in this one.
“Patrick Mahomes rushed for his most yards in a regular-season or postseason game against the Bills in the 2021 AFC divisional game on January 23, 2022, with 69 yards.” per StatMuse.
Patrick Mahomes Under .5 Interceptions (-101)
This player prop bet has hit in 7-straight games for Mahomes. The last time he threw an interception was actually back in Week 11 where he threw two interceptions against this Bills defense. Since then, Mahomes has been perfect and hasn’t thrown a single interception. This offense has been cooking and he’s simply not been making mistakes. Look for Mahomes to continue playing at this high level and not to throw an interception in this one.
Kareem Hunt Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-108)
Since losing Isiah Pacheco with a broken leg earlier this year, the Chiefs running game has struggled. It’s been expected that he’d struggle and lose some explosiveness while coming back from this injury. However, it’s been several weeks now and Pacheco continues to struggle.
Meanwhile, Hunt is 29 years old and looks more explosive with the ball in his hands over the last few weeks. While I do expect Pacheco to slowly return to form, he just ran for 18 yards on 5 carries in the Divisional Round against the Texans. During that game, Hunt took just 8 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown. Look for Hunt to get the bulk of the carries out of the Chiefs backfield and go over this 35.5-yard mark.
Josh Allen & Patrick Mahomes to Each Record 15+ Passing Yards in Each Quarter (-120)
This prop bet can be found in the Player Specials section on DraftKings. Oftentimes, these specials can be a bit of a trap. However, this line is so low that it should almost certainly hit. Don’t let the typical trap plays scare you off. This should be the safest pick on the slate.
Bonus Quick Hit Player Prop Bets
- Dalton Kincaid Over 32.5 Receiving Yards
- DeAndre Hopkins Anytime TD Scorer
- Keon Coleman Over 19.5 Receiving Yards
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