Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Bucs vs. Chiefs
Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets. Week 9 of the 2024 NFL regular season wraps up tonight on Monday Night Football. Tonight we have a matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs. Continue reading to check out my five best NFL player prop bets for Monday Night Football between the Bucs and Chiefs.
NFL Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football Buccaneers vs. Chiefs
While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite NFL player prop bets for Monday Night Football. All props are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130)
Mahomes has been far from elite this season, totaling only eight passing touchdowns in seven games. However, the superstar’s wide receiver core has been decimated by injuries. Thankfully, the Chiefs traded for DeAndre Hopkins and have started to expand Xavier Worthy’s role on offense. Mahomes has had two passing touchdowns in nearly half of the contests this year, including last week against the Las Vegas Raiders in Hopkins’ first game with the team.
While the superstar hasn’t had a three-passing touchdown performance in 2024, that could change Monday night. The Buccaneers have surrendered 15 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks, the fifth-most in the NFL. More importantly, they have given up 14 passing touchdowns over the past month. Tampa Bay surrendered four or more passing touchdowns in three of those games. The lone exception was to Spencer Rattler in Week 6, totaling only one passing score.
Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+140)
Unfortunately, the Buccaneers will be without Mike Evans for a few weeks because of a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, Chris Godwin is out for the year after dislocating his ankle in Week 7. However, that didn’t stop Mayfield from putting up elite passing numbers last week. The veteran quarterback completed 74% of his pass attempts, totaling three touchdowns against the Atlanta Falcons. Impressively, he has thrown at least two touchdowns in five consecutive games.
Furthermore, Mayfield has had 13 passing touchdowns over the past month. Totaling at least three scores in every contest. Additionally, the veteran has more games with at least three passing touchdowns (5) than performances with under two (2) this year. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have surrendered two passing touchdowns to quarterbacks in nearly half of their games. Furthermore, Kansas City has given up two passing touchdowns to quarterbacks in two of their past three contests. All things considered, Mayfield leads the way here for our first NFL player prop bet.
Kareem Hunt Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Hopefully, the Chiefs will get Isiah Pacheco back from a fractured fibula in a few weeks. However, Hunt has done well filling in as the starting running back. The veteran has averaged 77 rushing yards per game, totaling 59 or more in every contest. Furthermore, he had at least 69 rushing yards in all but one of four games this season. More importantly, Hunt has been the featured guy in the backfield since joining the team.
Furthermore, the veteran running back has averaged 21 rushing attempts per game this year. Notably, totaling 21 or more in three consecutive contests. More yet, Hunt has accounted for 79.3% of the backfield rushing attempts and 83.5% of the yards since joining the team. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have surrendered 93.1 rushing yards per game to running backs. Not to mention, they have been dealing with injuries to Vita Vea and veteran linebacker Lavonte David. They have given up 89 or more rushing yards in 62.5% of their games, including in back-to-back weeks.
Cade Otton Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Cade Otton had only four targets over the first two weeks. However, his role on offense has grown since the slow start, averaging 7.8 targets and 56.5 receiving yards per game since the first two contests. The third-year tight end has stepped up with Evans (hamstring) and Godwin (ankle) out of the lineup. Earning 10 targets and at least 81 receiving yards in back-to-back games. Otton has become a go-to target for Baker Mayfield.
Over the past two weeks, the young tight end has earned a 27.4% first-read target share and a 25.9% receiving yards market share with the two superstar receivers injured (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, the Chiefs have surrendered 80.9 receiving yards per game to tight ends, giving up 59 or more in 71.4% of their contests. Kansas City has allowed tight ends to total 92 or more receiving yards in nearly half of their matchups.
Travis Kelce Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
While Kelce has averaged 47.9 receiving yards per game this season, the future Hall of Famer got off to an awful start. He had only 69 receiving yards over the first three games. However, the veteran has been significantly better lately, averaging 66.5 receiving yards per game over the past four contests, totaling 70 or more in all but one. Furthermore, Kelce had a season-high 12 targets for 90 receiving yards against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers’ pass defense has been atrocious lately. They have surrendered 91.6 receiving yards per game to tight ends over the past five weeks, allowing 72 or more in every contest. Furthermore, tight ends have had 100 or more receiving yards against Tampa in two of their past three games, including last week. The Buccaneers might be without superstar safety Antoine Winfield Jr. because of a foot injury, potentially making Kelce’s night even easier.
Ultimately, Kelce has been a bit of a disappointment this year. However, considering the matchup and all of the injuries to the defense, this is a top NFL player prop bet to target in this Monday Night Football matchup between the Bucs and the Chiefs.
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