NFL Player Prop Bets Super Bowl LIX: Chiefs vs. Eagles
Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets. This year, the Super Bowl kicks off on February 9th, at 6:30 PM, EST. Additionally, it will be held in the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. Today, I’ll be breaking down my top NFL player prop bets for this matchup between the Chiefs and Eagles. Let’s get right into the picks.
NFL Player Prop Bets – Super Bowl LIV: Chiefs vs. Eagles
Super Bowl LIX is less than a week away, meaning the 2024 NFL season is nearly over. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the year with. However, we have one last game to make some money before we turn our focus to the 2025 NFL Draft.
Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles will face Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of Super Bowl LIX. As you can recall, the Chiefs came out on top, winning 38-35. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. You might even be more focused on the halftime show featuring Kendrick Lamar or seeing Taylor Swift during a commercial. More importantly, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite Super Bowl prop bets for Super Bowl LIX.
All props are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jalen Hurts Over 199.5 Passing Yards (-135)
While the Eagles’ offense has become one of the top run-heavy units in the NFL since their bye week, Hurts has been productive. The former Oklahoma star averaged 193.5 passing yards per game during the regular season, his lowest as the full-time starter. However, he averaged 206.6 passing yards per game in his 14 healthy contests. Furthermore, Hurts had 246 passing yards in the NFC Championship Game matchup against the Washington Commanders despite having only 20 completions.
Bettors should have high expectations for the star quarterback in Sunday’s matchup against Kansas City. The Chiefs surrendered 223.5 passing yards per game to quarterbacks during the regular season. However, they’ve given up 241 passing yards per game during the playoffs, allowing at least 237 in both outings. Kansas City gave up 304 passing yards to Hurts in Super Bowl LVII, the highest total of his playoff career and the 12th-best of his regular and postseason career.
Patrick Mahomes Under 252.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Nearly everyone agrees that Mahomes is one of the top passers in the NFL. However, his stats don’t always back up that claim. The superstar quarterback averaged 245.5 passing yards per game during the regular season, the lowest average of his career, down 6.1% from his previous career low. Meanwhile, he averaged 262.8 passing yards per game during the playoffs last year, totaling 241 or fewer in half of the contests.
Unfortunately, Mahomes hasn’t had as much success this year in the postseason. The superstar has averaged 211 passing yards per game during the playoffs, totaling 245 or fewer in both matchups. More importantly, he had only 182 passing yards against the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII. Philadelphia had one of the top pass defenses in the NFL. They held quarterbacks to 192.1 passing yards per game during the regular season, the second-fewest in the league.
Saquon Barkley Over 112.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The likely Offensive Player of the Year award winner has been far and away the top running back in the NFL this year. Barkley led the league in rushing attempts (345), yards (2,005), and yards per game (125.3) during the regular season. Yet, the superstar has taken his game to another level during the playoffs, averaging 147.3 rushing yards per outing. He had at least 118 rushing yards in every postseason game.
Furthermore, Barkley had at least 118 rushing yards in half of the regular season games and 57.9% of the contests this year, including the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have had issues with running backs during the postseason. They gave up 18 rushing attempts for 88 yards to Joe Mixon and 13 attempts for 85 yards to James Cook. Expect Barkley to keep his playoff streak of at least 118 rushing yards alive.
Xavier Worthy Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-140)
Worthy had high expectations as a rookie after the Chiefs traded up in the NFL Draft for the former Texas star. However, he averaged only 37.5 receiving yards per game during the regular season, finishing fifth on the team. Yet, the explosive rookie wide receiver has stepped up his game lately. Worthy has averaged 68.5 receiving yards per game over his past four contests with Patrick Mahomes, totaling 65 or more in all but one outing.
More importantly, the star rookie wide receiver led Kansas City in receptions (six), targets (seven), receiving yards (85), and touchdowns (one) in the AFC Championship Game win over the Buffalo Bills, setting a career-high in yards. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has struggled to slow down opposing No. 1 wide receivers during the playoffs. They surrendered 64.7 receiving yards per game to Jayden Reed, Puka Nacua, and Terry McLaurin, giving up at least 51 in back-to-back matchups.
Dallas Goedert Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
Despite missing significant time this year with injuries, Goedert played a meaningful role in the Eagles’ passing attack. He averaged 49.6 receiving yards per game during the regular season. However, Goedert averaged 55.1 receiving yards per game in the nine contests he played at least 19% of the snaps. More importantly, the veteran has been outstanding during the playoffs, averaging 62.7 receiving yards per game, totaling at least 56 in back-to-back contests, including 85 last week.
Meanwhile, bettors should feel confident in Goedert on Sunday. He played well in the Super Bowl LVII loss to the Chiefs, totaling 60 receiving yards. More importantly, Kansas City has struggled to defend tight ends this year. They surrendered 70.1 receiving yards per game to tight ends during the regular season, the most in the NFL. The Chiefs also gave up 63 receiving yards to Dalton Schultz in their first playoff matchup this year.
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