NFL Player Props Week 11: Texans vs. Cowboys (MNF)
Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets. Today, I’m bringing you my top NFL Player Props Week 11 between the Houston Texans vs. the Dallas Cowboys game on Monday Night Football. This MNF matchup kicks off at 8:15 PM, EST. Continue reading to check out my favorite NFL player props in this Week 11 matchup.
NFL Player Props Week 11: MNF Texans vs. Cowboys
Week 11 of the 2024 NFL regular season is underway. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started last week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.
Monday night, we have a matchup between the Texans and the Cowboys. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Monday’s game. All player props and odds are from DraftKings.
C.J. Stroud Over 236.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Stroud has averaged 237.1 passing yards per game this season after averaging 273.9 as a rookie. However, he has been significantly better with Nico Collins on the field. Stroud has averaged 277 passing yards per game in the five contests with the superstar receiver, totaling 260 or more in three matchups. By comparison, he has averaged 197.2 passing yards per game in the five matchups without Collins, totaling 232 or fewer in all but one contest.
Unfortunately, the Cowboys’ defense has severely struggled this season without former defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. They have given up 227.6 passing yards per game to quarterbacks, allowing 243 or more in nearly half of their matchups. However, Dallas has had no answer for opposing passing attacks lately. They have surrendered 255 passing yards per game over their past four contests, giving up 260 or more twice. Stroud should have a strong performance with Collins back in the lineup.
Joe Mixon Over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Last week, Mixon had only 46 rushing yards on 25 attempts. However, he faced arguably the top run defense in the NFL. By comparison, the star running back averaged 101.5 rushing yards per game in the other six contests. Furthermore, Mixon has had over 100 rushing yards in the five contests he didn’t leave early with an injury before last week, averaging 116.8 per game. More importantly, he has an excellent matchup on Monday night.
The Cowboys have surrendered the 12th-most rushing yards to running backs, allowing 111.1 per game. Dallas has allowed running backs to have over 100 rushing yards in 66.7% of their games, including four consecutive contests. Furthermore, running backs have averaged 129 yards per attempt and 4.8 yards per game against the Cowboys over the past five weeks. Don’t be surprised if Mixon has over 100 rushing yards before the start of the fourth quarter.
Rico Dowdle Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Earlier this week, head coach Mike McCarthy called Dowdle the team’s lead running back, ending the Cowboys’ use of a committee backfield approach. The veteran running back has averaged 10.4 rushing attempts for 46.8 yards per game this season despite splitting backfield work with Ezekiel Elliott. He has totaled more than 53 rushing yards only twice this year. However, Dowdle has averaged 71.7 rushing yards per game in the three contests with at least 12 attempts.
Furthermore, the veteran running back has averaged 60 rushing yards per game over his past four contests, totaling 53 or more in all but one matchup. Meanwhile, the Texans have surrendered 84.9 rushing yards per game to running backs. They have given up 94.5 rushing yards per game to running backs over the past month, surrendering 83 or more in every contest. With Cooper Rush limiting Dallas’ passing attack, expect the team to lean on Dowdle.
Joe Mixon to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-175)
While Mixon is coming off his worst rushing performance in a healthy game this season, the veteran running back still found the end zone against an elite Detroit Lions run defense in Week 10. Mixon has eight touchdowns in seven games this year, ranking seventh in the NFL in scores despite missing three games with an ankle injury. More importantly, the former Oklahoma star is the focal point of the Texans’ offense.
Mixon has found the end zone at least once in every healthy game. The veteran running back has more games with two touchdowns (two) than contests without a score (one) this season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have surrendered the third-most rushing touchdowns to running backs entering Week 11 (10), including four over their past four contests. Furthermore, they have given up two or more touchdowns to running backs in a third of their matchups.
Nico Collins Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Despite missing the past 5.5 games with a hamstring injury, Collins ranks 18th in the NFL with 567 receiving yards heading into Week 11. He is arguably the league’s top deep threat. The former Michigan star leads the NFL in receiving yards per game (113.4) this season, totaling 86 or more in his four healthy contests. Furthermore, Collins had 117 or more receiving yards in three of the first four games this year.
The superstar wide receiver had 78 receiving yards on only two targets in the Week 5 matchup before leaving the game early with a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, Dallas has struggled to stop outside No. 1 wide receivers lately. The Cowboys have given up 86 yards per game to them over their past four contests, including 88 or more in back-to-back weeks. Don’t be surprised if the Texans target Collins on a few deep shots early in the game.
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