NFL Player Props Week 12: Steelers vs. Browns (TNF)
Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets. Today, I’m bringing you my top NFL Player Props Week 12 between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns game on Thursday Night Football. This AFC North rivalry on TNF kicks off at 8:15 PM, EST. Continue reading to check out my favorite NFL player props in this Week 12 TNF matchup.
NFL Player Props Week 12: TNF Steelers vs. Browns
Thursday night, we have a matchup between the Steelers and the Browns. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Thursday’s game. All props are from DraftKings. Let’s get right into the NFL player props for this TNF matchup.
Russell Wilson Over 174.5 Passing Yards (-145)
While the weather for Thursday night’s game is far from ideal, Wilson’s passing total is way too low. The veteran quarterback has averaged 235.5 passing yards per game in his four starts, totaling 195 or more in every contest. Furthermore, he has had at least 205 passing yards in all but one game. Meanwhile, Kenny Pickett averaged 164 passing yards per game in the two matchups against the AFC North division rivals last year.
Therefore, Wilson should have no trouble totaling 175 or more yards against a significantly worse Cleveland defense. The Browns have surrendered 226.5 passing yards per game to quarterbacks this season. However, their pass defense has severely struggled lately. They have allowed quarterbacks to average 273 passing yards per game over their past three contests, totaling 248 or more in every matchup. Don’t be surprised if Wilson has over 200 passing yards against Cleveland.
George Pickens Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-135)
Pittsburgh’s passing attack has been significantly better since benching Justin Fields for Russell Wilson. Pickens has been the biggest benefactor to the quarterback change. The star receiver has averaged 72.8 receiving yards per game this season, totaling 70 or more in 60% of the contests. More importantly, he has averaged 91.3 receiving yards per game during Wilson’s four starts, totaling 74 or more in every contest, including three matchups with over 88 yards.
Despite having Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, the Browns defense had issues slowing down opposing passing attacks. Cleveland has surrendered the 12th-most receiving yards to wide receivers, allowing 156.4 per game. Furthermore, they have given up 538 receiving yards to wide receivers over their past three contests despite facing sub-par passing attacks. More importantly, they’ve struggled with downfield pass catchers, giving up 87 receiving yards to Marquez Valdes-Scantling and 118 to Quentin Johnston in their past two games.
Cedric Tillman Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Last week, Tillman had his worst performance since the Browns traded away Amari Cooper, totaling 47 receiving yards. The second-year pro struggled to connect with Jameis Winston, pulling in only three of his eight targets. However, it was the fourth consecutive game he had at least eight targets, averaging 10 per contest since the Cooper trade. More importantly, Tillman has been outstanding with Winston under center, averaging 73.7 receiving yards per contest in his three starts.
Furthermore, the former Tennessee star has averaged 75.5 receiving yards per game over the past five weeks, totaling 75 or more in all but one contest. Meanwhile, the Steelers have one of the top pass defenses in the NFL. Yet, they’ve had some issues with downfield pass catchers, surrendering 81.7 receiving yards per game to Terry McLaurin, Malik Nabers, and Garrett Wilson over the past five weeks, allowing at least 61 to each receiver.
Elijah Moore Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Browns passing offense has struggled with Deshaun Watson starting the past few years. However, it has thrived with Joe Flacco and Jameis Winston. Moore has benefited from the change at quarterback. After averaging only 15.8 receiving yards per game with Watson, the fourth-year pro has averaged 55 yards per game over the past four contests. He has had at least 41 receiving yards in three of those four games, including over 60 twice.
More importantly, Moore is coming off arguably his best performance this season. The former Ole Miss star had six receptions on eight targets for 66 receiving yards last week. He has averaged 9.7 targets per game over the past four weeks, earning at least eight in every contest. Meanwhile, the Steelers have surrendered 73.1 receiving yards per game to slot receivers. Moore has run the majority of his routes from the slot this year.
David Njoku Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Njoku has had an up-and-down season, averaging 48 receiving yards per game. While he missed time earlier in the year with an ankle injury, the star tight end has been productive since the change at quarterback. Njoku has averaged 61.8 yards per contest over the past five weeks, totaling 61 or more in all but one matchup. Furthermore, the veteran tight end has averaged 9.3 targets per game over the past four contests.
Meanwhile, the Steelers have allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards to tight ends, surrendering 45.8 per contest. However, they’ve had trouble with athletic star tight ends. Pittsburgh gave up at least 70 receiving yards in their matchup against Jake Ferguson, Brock Bowers, and Isaiah Likely. By comparison, they have surrendered 34.6 receiving yards per game to tight ends in the other seven contests. Njoku had at least 48 receiving yards in both games against the Browns last season. This player prop wraps up our NFL player props for Week 12 between the Steelers and Browns on TNF.
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